2023 College Football odds: Michigan, Colorado major liabilities to sportsbooks
As Cameron Drucker, a senior trader for BetMGM, looks over the ledger for BetMGM’s College Football Playoff (CFP) odds, he’s got to like what he sees. Georgia is the two-time defending national champion and is favored to win a third straight CFP title.
Yet that would be just fine with Drucker.
That’s because, while Georgia is certainly popular, the Bulldogs aren’t a liability and, in fact, are among the best outcomes for the book.
With the first full weekend of college football games coming up, Drucker helps us dive into odds to win the College Football Playoff.
Georgia on My Mind
After Georgia beat the daylights out of TCU 65-7 in the 2022-23 CFP championship game, BetMGM made the Bulldogs a tidy +250 favorite to three-peat in 2023-24. With the season about to kick off, Georgia is at +225, meaning a $10 bet would profit $22.50 for a $32.50 total payout.
It’s not bad, but it’s not nearly as appealing as any other team on the CFP oddsboard. Even the second choice, Alabama, is +600, meaning 10 bucks would yield a $60 profit.
So, although Georgia is tied for fifth in ticket count and sits third in money, Kirby Smart’s squad is a boon for BetMGM at the moment, thanks to those short odds helping limit liability.
"Georgia has stood pretty strong for us at +225 throughout the summer," Drucker said. "They're currently our best-case scenario of the top 20 teams, as far as the outright [championship] is concerned. There’s not a ton of money on the Bulldogs thus far."
Can the Bulldogs get it done a third straight time?
"At the risk of stating the obvious, their success will be heavily dependent upon the development of Carson Beck," Drucker said of the new QB. "The roster remains absolutely loaded at every position, and if Beck can simply be a competent game manager, you have to feel Georgia has a great shot at repeating again. If Beck ends up playing at an All-SEC level or above, it will be really tough for anyone to overtake the Dawgs."
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Michigan Men
A major reason that Georgia isn’t an issue is because of Michigan. In BetMGM’s College Football Playoff odds market, no team is taking more tickets or more money than the Wolverines.
Michigan opened at +1000 and is now the +800 fourth choice, behind Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State (+700). And while the 10/1 opener and 8/1 current odds aren’t huge, they’re significantly longer than Georgia’s price. With all the tickets and dollars flying on QB J.J. McCarthy & Co., BetMGM is concerned.
"Michigan is currently our largest liability by quite a bit," Drucker said. "The Wolverines are a very experienced group, with a lot of big names returning on the offensive side. It will be difficult to navigate to the playoffs through a tough Big Ten. But if they can do that, they will obviously have a chance.
"LSU has also been a trendy team thus far. The Tigers have a great defense coming back, along with a stellar QB in Jayden Daniels, who will likely be in Heisman contention. I can easily see LSU being a force come playoff time."
The Tigers, who open the season with a Sunday night neutral-site showdown against Florida State, opened +2000 in BetMGM’s College Football Playoff futures odds. LSU is now the +1200 fifth choice to win it all.
LSU is fourth in ticket count and tied for fourth in money at BetMGM. And again, the Tigers are at notably longer odds than favored Georgia, making LSU a liability for the book.
The Good, The Bad and The Buffaloes
Not only is Georgia a good outcome for BetMGM, but so, too, are Alabama and Ohio State.
"All three of the top favorites remain excellent for us," Drucker said.
So, which outcomes are good on the bettors’ side of the counter?
"Our largest liabilities are currently Michigan, LSU and Tennessee, among the teams with a realistic chance," Drucker said. "Our largest liability by far, however, is the Colorado Buffaloes, who have become the public darling, to nobody’s surprise."
Ah yes, the glow of Neon Deion Sanders is alluring to public/recreational bettors. Colorado’s new coach is drawing plenty of attention, and so too is his team in the CFP odds market, even though the Buffaloes’ season win total is a meager Over/Under 3.5.
Colorado is ninth in ticket count and money at BetMGM. Michigan has taken four times more bets and six times more money than the Buffs. But those tickets and money on Colorado came on opening odds of 300/1 (+30000) and current odds of 250/1 (+25000). As such, liability has spiraled at BetMGM and several other U.S. sportsbooks.
However, the Buffaloes are unlikely to even reach the Poulan Weedwacker Bowl, let alone the CFP. But on a hugely hypothetical Colorado championship, throwing down 10 bucks right now would yield a $2,500 profit.
Colorado opens the season Saturday in the FOX Big Noon Kickoff against No. 16 TCU, which, as noted above, reached the CFP final last season. So we’ll find out in short order if my alma mater Buffs — currently three-touchdown underdogs — are any good.
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Potential Dark Horse
What some bettors look for at this time of year is an under-the-radar outfit — a team potentially good enough to get into the CFP if everything falls right, then maybe find a way to win in the semis and the championship game.
Drucker pointed to one possible dark-horse prospect.
"Texas A&M seems like an interesting choice to me," he said. "The Aggies are flooded with high-level talent at every position, and there seems to be a lot of interest on QB Conner Weigman for the Heisman."
A&M opened +5000 at BetMGM and now sits at +4000. And Weigman’s Heisman Trophy odds have made a significant jump, from +10000 (100/1) to +4000.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
