Major League Baseball

What we learned in MLB this week: The Blue Jays are mashing and might get better

Updated Apr. 20, 2023 1:40 p.m. ET

Every Thursday, Jordan Shusterman takes a look at one thing from each MLB division that we've learned from the past week of action.

AL East: The Blue Jays' lineup is amazing but also sort of underachieving

Matt Chapman (1.211 OPS) leads MLB in both bWAR and fWAR. Bo Bichette (.933 OPS) leads the American League in hits. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.892 OPS) has a career-low strikeout rate and a career-high launch angle. These are three legitimate MVP candidates on one team and everything Toronto fans could possibly hope and dream of for their infield.

The problem is … that's kind of been it. In the outfield, Kevin Kiermaier has been surprisingly productive as Toronto's fourth-best bat, but neither George Springer nor Daulton Varsho has really gotten going yet. Last year's dynamic catching duo of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen has combined for just four extra-base hits thus far. Santiago Espinal and Brandon Belt have been downright bad. And Whit Merrifield? More like Whit Meh-rrifield. (Sorry.)

So what to make of this? If Chapman, Bichette and Guerrero continue performing at an All-Star level, the Jays are probably going to be in decent shape no matter what. However, it's hard not to wonder if the slow start from the rest of the position-player group is actually a good sign for what's to come. Maybe the big three regress somewhat, but add in a Springer hot-streak or two and this lineup will quickly become a miserable assignment for any opposing staff.

The pitching will likely dictate Toronto's fate in the postseason race regardless of the evolution of the offense, but the lineup is what makes me want to watch as many Jays games as possible — and I really think they could get even better.

AL Central: Cleveland is still allergic to homers

Last year, the Guardians won 92 games and the AL Central despite finishing 29th in baseball in home runs with a measly 127 dingers. They appeared to make some effort toward remedying this glaring weakness over the winter with the signings of Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, two veteran sluggers with a proven penchant for depositing baseballs beyond the outfield fence.

It's still April, of course, but here the Guardians sit again at a cool 29th in MLB in the long ball. They've hit 10 to be exact, two ahead of the lowly Nationals. It's also just two more than Pete Alonso and Patrick Wisdom. The Rays — the same team that the Guardians outlasted in 15 innings last October because neither team could slug whatsoever until Oscar Gonzalez put us all out of our misery — currently lead MLB with 42 homers. If my math is correct, that's a lot more than 10.

Is it too harsh to focus so squarely on the Guardians' specific lack of the long ball when three other AL Central lineups — including the team they are chasing in Minnesota — have been even worse than Cleveland at the plate overall? Probably. I can understand and appreciate the Guardians' style of play, and if the stolen base is indeed back in MLB — Cleveland has the most in baseball with 26, by the way — maybe the Guardians can just slash-and-dash their way back to October. But power production was such an obvious area of need coming into the year and if it isn't fixed whatsoever, I'm skeptical of this squad's overall ceiling, especially when the traditionally excellent pitching has looked merely good rather than great.

AL West: The Mariners' lineup has multiple black holes

Even with the offseason acquisition of two-time Silver Slugger Teoscar Hernández, the Mariners entered this year looking like a bat (or two) away from being considered a serious contender. Had we known before the year that Jarred Kelenic would be absolutely raking through the first three weeks, those concerns about the offense may have been somewhat assuaged, as Kelenic was hardly someone anyone was counting on for significant production regardless of how good he looked in spring training.

But rather than elevating a potentially stellar lineup fueled by the likes of Hernandez, Julio Rodríguez, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh, Kelenic's contributions have done only so much to compensate for the stunning disaster that has been both second base and DH for Seattle. Kolten Wong, thought to be an offensive upgrade over last year's second-sacker in Adam Frazier, is hitting .098/.190/.098 for a league-worst -14 OPS+. Pro-tip: having a plus stat start with a minus is never a good sign.

Mariners' Julio Rodríguez blasts two-run HR vs. Brewers

While Wong's extreme struggles are surprising, the Mariners' decision to roll with a rotation of mostly bench players at DH rather than acquire another legitimate thumper seems to be coming back to bite them. How bad, exactly? A DH rotation primarily consisting of Cooper Hummel, Tommy La Stella and AJ Pollock has hit a combined .114/.206/.180 with one RBI. Not ideal for a position literally designated TO HIT THE BALL!!!

Dylan Moore's return will probably take Wong out of the lineup moving forward, but there's no obvious fix for the DH spot unless Hernández sees more time there consistently, which doesn't appear to be part of the plans. There's still a ton to like about this roster, but I have a feeling these two spots will remain in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons — at least as long as Seattle remains below .500.

NL East: The Phillies’ divisional hopes may already be dead

Any dreams of having a three-way heavyweight fight in this division between the juggernaut Braves, the $350 million Mets, and the defending NL champion Phillies are probably already quashed. FanGraphs gave Philadelphia a 10.5% chance of winning the division before the season — that number is now below 3%. With the spring training injury to Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper in the midst of a lengthy rehab, the Phillies were a step behind their divisional foes in Atlanta and New York to begin the season. But this is less about my lack of belief in the Phillies' ability to turn it around as much as it is my confidence in the strong starts for the Braves and Mets not slowing down anytime soon. It doesn't help that the Marlins aren't going to be pushovers by any means, either, making it quite the challenge to get back into the mix for even a wild-card spot.

Braves' Sam Hilliard makes incredible catch to rob Manny Machado of HR

As for Atlanta and New York, I'm just hoping the race is close all summer long as opposed to one team getting a massive lead and then blowing it down the stretch (or just holding onto it firmly and robbing us the chance for drama). I've been impressed with the Mets' ability to keep pace considering the injuries they too have been managing, but they're going to either need Justin Verlander back (and dominating) soon or more consistent showings from the rest of the starting rotation if they want to hang around with the winning machine that the Braves appear to be.

NL Central: The Cubs are making strides

Well, well, well, would you look at Cody Bellinger? The former NL MVP was in the spotlight this past weekend as he returned to Los Angeles with his new team. More importantly, the Cubs won that series in impressive fashion and Bellinger has been one of the team's most productive hitters in the early going, with a 119 OPS+ and dramatically improved strikeout rate (16.0%). Bellinger's strong start has helped to cover up some woeful showings thus far from veteran additions Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, whose playing time has to be questioned as long as first base prospect Matt Mervis continues to mash in Triple-A.

The good news is that the most important signing of them all, Dansby Swanson, has also been excellent on both sides of the ball, solidifying a formidable Cubs core alongside recently extended Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ. Wisdom smashing eight homers already hasn't hurt, either.

Even more remarkable than the lineup has been Chicago's run prevention efforts, with Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele leading the charge. The Cubs' staff ranks fifth in ERA and fourth in strikeout rate after ranking 20th and 18th, respectively, a year ago. I'd bet against them staying in the top five in those categories all season, but progress has clearly been made and should go a long way toward keeping them competitive against anyone, as they just demonstrated against the Dodgers.

With the Cardinals struggling badly on the mound and already in something of a hole standings-wise, the Cubs' road to contention may be a bit clearer than originally expected. Regardless of how they stack up with Milwaukee, which looks like one of the best teams in the NL, the Cubs should be taken seriously in the NL wild-card conversation at the very least.

NL West: The Diamondbacks definitely aren't bad, but are they actually good?

Thursday brings the much-anticipated return of Fernando Tatís Jr. to the Padres' lineup, but I want to focus on the team he'll be playing against. The D-backs have been a fascinating watch thus far and have clearly benefited from slow starts from Los Angeles and San Diego — but first place is first place. Arizona's minus-7 run differential is by far the worst of the six division leaders — by 30 runs to be exact — and significantly worse than the Dodgers (+19), who are two games behind them.

This isn't to say the D-backs' strong start has been entirely smoke and mirrors. Rookie Corbin Carroll is already showing flashes of brilliance with his unique power/speed combo, while Zac Gallen continues to headline a rotation that now features some exciting youth in Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson capable of dramatically raising the ceiling of the entire pitching staff.

The offense beyond Carroll has been a tick below league average with 2022 breakouts Christian Walker and Jake McCarthy off to troublingly slow starts. The same can be said about Gabriel Moreno, the primary prize received in the Varsho trade, after being fully pressed into everyday action due to Carson Kelly's injury. Madison Bumgarner has (now had) also been making starts every five days for this team and that's been a bigger disaster than the one it was the previous three seasons.

Diamondbacks' Gabriel Moreno nails three-run HR vs. Cardinals

With the Diamondbacks projected for another mid-70s win total heading into the season, I already feel good about them surpassing those expectations and maybe even finishing above .500. But I'm certainly going to need to see a lot more from the bullpen and some struggling key position players before getting too excited about their current place in the standings. For now, though, let's just appreciate that Kevin Durant is paying attention and showing love to this team.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.

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