Major League Baseball

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., MLB Comeback Player of the Year? Six rebound candidates for 2024

Updated Feb. 22, 2024 9:07 p.m. ET

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Deesha Thosar

MLB Writer

Disappointing contracts. Unexpected career turns. Unmet expectations. The six players below have it all, as they look to rebound from forgettable 2023 campaigns. Let's take a look at a few prime 2024 bounce-back candidates, as well as their projected numbers for the upcoming season. 

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Stats: .264/.345/.444, 26 HRs, 94 RBI, 118 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: .279/.360/.494, 31 HRs, 100 RBI, 135 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

Guerrero is perhaps a victim of his own success, as he's been unable to replicate the insane numbers he produced in 2021. That year, as a 22-year-old, he led the majors in home runs (48) and runs scored (123), and led the American League in on-base percentage (.401), slugging (.601), and OPS (1.002). The only reason Guerrero didn't win MVP honors was because some guy named Shohei Ohtani put together one of the best seasons of all time, starring as both a hitter and pitcher (and runner). It'll be tough for Guerrero to repeat that 166 wRC+ season, but that's the ceiling he established, despite his regression for the second straight year in 2023.

The good news for Guerrero? It's a new year and the projections are strong. FanGraphs is expecting an uptick not only in home runs, isolated power and walk rate and a decrease in strikeout rate, all of which adds up to more than three times his 2023 WAR. His projected .215 ISO would be the second-highest of his career. With increasing ambiguity surrounding his potential, Guerrero knows he has a lot to prove. We'll know better in 2024 whether his 2021 campaign was closer to the standard or an exception.

2. Carlos Correa, SS, Minnesota Twins
2023 Stats: .230/.312/.399, 18 HRs, 65 RBI, 96 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: .259/.336/.437, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 114 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR

Baseball is better when players like Correa — cutthroat, competitive, bold — perform at their best. His passion on the field is as much a part of his game as his ability to be a leader for a Twins team that reached the ALDS last October. But after a never-ending saga that took him from San Francisco to Queens and back to Minnesota due to concerns over his ankle, Correa took a step back from the strong showing that the Twins enjoyed in 2022. He showed flashes of his brilliance in last year's postseason, though mostly against his former team.

Fortunately for the shortstop and his fans, Correa is projected to improve in most offensive categories in 2024. He's expected to be stellar at the plate, though his wRC+ still falls below the high marks that we're used to seeing from him. Correa posted a 140 wRC+ in his debut season with Minnesota, which nearly reached his career-bests of 152 wRC+ in 2017 and 142 wRC+ in 2019 with the Astros. The main takeaway is that Correa, in just his age-29 season, should rebound. If his nine years in the majors are any indication, he'll bounce back in a big way.

3. Carlos Rodón, LHP, New York Yankees
2023 Stats: 6.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 22.4 K%, 9.8 BB%, 64.1 IP, 14 GS, -0.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 114 IP, 22 GS, 2.4 fWAR

The Yankees are counting on Rodón to bounce back from a disastrous 2023 and be the co-ace to Gerrit Cole because, well, there's currently no safety net if that plan fails. Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt will again be asked to take the mound every fifth or sixth day, while Luis Severino and Michael King were effectually swapped out for Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver. That could be a good rotation — if Rodón stays healthy and pitches like he did with the White Sox and Giants from 2021 to 2022. After all, his 2.63 ERA across 310 innings in those two seasons is what earned him the second-largest contract (six years, $162 million) the Yankees have ever given a pitcher.

It's no wonder Rodón's ZiPS projections for 2024 are relatively optimistic. His predicted 114 innings are lower than his usual output in a typical season, but they're also almost double the amount he recorded last year. His projected ERA doesn't reflect his excellence in years past, but it's certainly a number the Yankees should be able to live with. Most encouragingly, Rodón's projected strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his better seasons. He is a huge X-factor for these Yanks, as even a modest rebound could go a long way for them.

4. Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
2023 Stats: .263/.324/.381, 10 HRs, 52 RBI, 96 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: .246/.303/.381, 16 HRs, 65 RBIs, 89 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

Peña experienced a bit of a sophomore slump after a promising rookie season in which he won ALCS and World Series MVP. Imagine the criticism he would still be facing from Astros fans if his 2023 campaign was directly on the heels of Carlos Correa's departure. Much of the optimism still surrounding Peña's future in Houston stems from how smoothly he succeeded Correa at shortstop in 2022. Peña has proven he can handle the pressure of answering endless questions about his predecessor and perform in key spots. He also has the presence to be a leader in the locker room, which could be important as current fan favorites Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker approach free agency and inch closer to uncertain futures. 

As for Peña picking up the production on the field? Hold the brakes. He isn't projected to improve at the plate in Year 3. Instead, Peña's expected to be a below-average hitter, which would further lower his ceiling from the postseason heights he reached as a rookie. But with just two years in the majors, the 26-year-old is young enough to continue maturing — his strikeout and walk ratios both trended in the right direction last year — and outplay the projection models.

5. Luis Severino, RHP, New York Mets
2023 Stats: 6.65 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 18.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 89.1 IP, 18 GS, -0.6 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: 4.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 21.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 86.3 IP, 17 GS, 1.1 fWAR

Severino producing a strong season could be the difference between the Mets being playoff contenders. The Mets went into the offseason desperately lacking starting pitching, a result of the lack of upper-tier arms in the farm system, coupled with their decision to part ways with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at last year's trade deadline. But, after the Mets missed out on signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, president of baseball operations David Stearns took a measured approach to filling in the holes in the rotation. Sean Manaea and Severino are the new faces joining Kodai Senga and José Quintana, with Severino flashing the higher ceiling between the two new arms. But what a mountain he has to climb.

The right-hander's last season with the Yankees was hard to watch. He believes the ugly, spiraling performances could be a result of tipping his pitches. It will be interesting to see how much Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner can help Severino return to the type of starter (maybe even an ace) the Yankees always believed he would be in the Bronx. For now, it's encouraging that Severino's stats are projected to improve in most major categories. But it's less encouraging that he's projected to pitch even fewer innings than last year, and make even fewer starts. Plenty of factors could improve that projection, particularly all the elements involved in playing for a new team. Ultimately, the Mets are taking a relaticvely low-risk flier on Severino with a one-year, $13 million contract. It won't be the biggest loss if he can't find his form. But with Senga experiencing pain in his shoulder and expected to miss Opening Day, Severino could be called upon as a temporary ace.

6. Kris Bryant, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
2023 Stats: .233/.313/.367, 10 HRs, 31 RBI, 73 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: ​​.263/.344/.430, 11 HRs, 43 RBI, 96 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

This might be hard to believe for those that watched his Rookie of the Year and MVP seasons, but Bryant was one of the worst players in baseball last year. Nearly every facet of his game took a turn for the worse — all while playing his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field in his age-31 season. His 76 OPS+ was by far the lowest in his career (aside from a 34-game sample in the abbreviated COVID season). He struggled just as much in the outfield, putting up a career worst -7 DRS and -5 OAA. Though Bryant was battling heel and finger injuries, which ultimately forced him to miss about half the season, it was still surprising to see the four-time All-Star regress to this degree. That fourth All-Star nod, after all, came in 2021. Throw in the backdrop of his seven-year, $182 million contract with the Rockies, and Bryant's year was unacceptable.

It's not so great, then, that his projections for the 2024 season are still remarkably un-Bryant-like. A good start for Bryant would include staying healthy; he's played in just 122 games in two years with Colorado. The Rockies are reportedly planning to move Bryant to first base this upcoming season, so the nightmares in the outfield might be behind him. But he was supposed to bounce back at the plate last year, because his debut season in Denver was also limited by injuries and inconsistency. While his 2024 projections include modest upticks, here's guessing Bryant was impacted more than anyone realized by injury and will outperform the numbers above. He was too good for too long to be this mediocre from here on out.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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Deesha Thosar