National Football League

2022 NFL Draft: How the combine will impact draft boards

Updated Apr. 28, 2022 2:50 p.m. ET

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

The avalanche of data created by the workouts, medical evaluations and interviews held each year at the combine is both critical to NFL evaluators and a potential detriment, as it can lead to a case of information overload.

For the untrained and undisciplined, it is easy to become enamored by the explosive speed, power and leaping ability demonstrated by future NFL Draft picks and momentarily forget the most critical thing to remember about the combine: that none of the players competing last week at Lucas Oil Stadium was wearing helmets and shoulder pads.

This isn’t to suggest, however, that the combine is a made-for-television event for fans. Despite what some general managers and head coaches across the league would like you to think, their boards are, in fact, adjusted by all the information gathered in the so-called "Underwear Olympics."

It just isn’t the massive overhauling of draft boards that some might think. No one is drafted in the first round simply because of a 40-yard-dash time.

That said, with the perspective gained from attending dozens of combine and pro day workouts over the past 20 years, here are the top 10 developments from Indianapolis that will affect this year’s NFL Draft.

10. Yes, hand size matters

One of the "biggest" stories out of Indianapolis this week was that highly regarded senior quarterback Kenny Pickett's right hand officially measured in at 8.5 inches from pinkie to thumb. That makes his throwing hand significantly smaller than that of every signal-caller in the NFL last season and any quarterback selected in the draft in five years.

Now, before you pass this off as the sort of minutia the media exaggerates but the NFL ignores, know that Pickett wore gloves at the University of Pittsburgh and at the Senior Bowl. When the weather turned sour during the week of practice, he did struggle with ball security, dropping multiple snaps while under center and spraying the ball on intermediate and deep passes. This was not just a case of a quarterback lacking familiarity with his center or receivers; Pickett averaged a fumble in every other game of his career at Pitt (26 in 52 games).

Now, regardless of his small hands, Pickett remains in the conversation to be the first quarterback selected this spring. He is more polished than his peers, likely showing the anticipation, accuracy (in dry conditions, at least), athleticism, leadership and just enough arm strength to convince a club that he can be a franchise QB.

9. Jordan Davis stars … but could have done more

Talent evaluators knew the Georgia nose guard would put up eye-popping results in the 40-yard dash, as he has for years shown remarkable speed sprinting to the sidelines in pursuit. But scouts had to do a double-take when the 6-foot-6, 341-pounder was clocked at 4.78 seconds in the 40-yard dash and registered a 10-foot-3 broad jump that was nearly a full foot longer than that of any other defensive tackle testing in Indianapolis. Davis’ 32-inch vertical jump tied for second in his position group (Iowa State’s Eyioma Uwazurike beat him by one inch) and put him ahead of the 13 running backs competing in this year’s combine.

As dominant as Davis was, scouts would have preferred he continue his workout with the bench press. While no one questions the big man’s raw power, there are plenty of concerns in the scouting community as to his stamina — which lifting a 225-pound bar multiple times without stopping tests just as much as strength.

8. Iowa State’s Breece Hall stakes claim as RB1

Given that he scored touchdowns in a staggering 24 consecutive games to cap his career with the Cyclones, perhaps Breece Hall should have already been viewed as the No. 1 running back in the 2022 NFL Draft. He claimed as much during his interview with the media prior to his workout.

Over the weekend, Hall showed off the remarkable explosiveness that helped him generate 4,675 all-purpose yards in three seasons in Ames, posting a 4.39-second time in the 40-yard dash, complementing it with a 10-foot-6 broad jump (tied for second among running backs) and leading the position with a 40-inch vertical that ranked third among all offensive players testing.

Hall and Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III will continue their race to the podium. Walker actually clocked in one one-hundredth of a second faster in Indianapolis and has better reps in pass protection on film. In living up to his pre-workout bravado, however, Hall made the strongest argument that a running back should be among the first 32 draft picks for the eighth consecutive year.

7. Hats off to Baylor’s speed

Give the Baylor Bears credit. They know how to recruit and develop speed.

In the 20-plus years I’ve covered the NFL Draft, I do not recall a year in which one program produced two of the three fastest players timed at their respective combine workouts. Yet that is exactly what occurred this past weekend, with cornerback Kalon Barnes (4.23 seconds) and wideout Tyquan Thornton (4.32) leading their respective positional groups and finishing first and third overall, with UTSA cornerback Tariq Woolen clocking second overall, with a sizzling 4.26 (as well as tying for the overall lead with a 42-inch vertical).

Now, to be clear, the blinding speed that Barnes and Thornton demonstrated this weekend will not significantly impact their draft stock. Scouts are familiar with both prospects and their track backgrounds, and straight-line speed is the greatest strength for both prospects, with them projecting as middle- to late-round picks because, frankly, they are better athletes than football players at this point.

However, among the millions watching (and hopefully reading about) this year’s combine workouts are future athletes considering their college plans. In much the same way that winning the NCAA Tournament a year ago served as a recruiting commercial for Baylor basketball coach Scott Drew, the efforts of Barnes and Thornton will only help Dave Aranda and his ascending football team.

6. Speedy (and strong) cornerback class shows its depth

The 2022 crop of cornerbacks is one of the more talented and deep I’ve encountered in all my years evaluating the NFL Draft. Sunday’s workouts helped prove that, with well-known stars such as Florida's Kaiir Elam (4.39 seconds), Cincinnati's Sauce Gardner (4.41) and Washington's Trent McDuffie (4.44) all proving that they have the straight-line speed to run hip-to-hip with the NFL’s speediest vertical threats and several relatively under-the-radar talents showing similar burst, including Woolen, Sam Houston State’s Zyon McCollum (4.33) and South Carolina State’s Cobie Durant (4.38) lighting up the track.

With all due respect to these "small schoolers," however, the workouts from Nebraska’s Cam Taylor-Britt (4.38) and Washington State’s Jaylen Watson (4.53) might actually impact their draft stock even more, as both players were characterized by some as potential safety converts, considering that they played with such physicality. The 6-foot-2, 197-pound Watson followed a strong showing at the Senior Bowl by also flexing on the bench press, posting an eye-popping 18 repetitions of 225 pounds to lead all cornerbacks.

5. NDSU’s Christian Watson among a trio of receivers whose workouts boosted their stock

There were some staggering times turned in by wide receivers in the 40-yard dash this year, but with prior speed demons flaming out in the NFL in recent years, teams are as wary of one-trick track stars at this position as at any other in the game. Make no mistake: This year’s spindly speedsters such as Baylor’s Thornton (6-foot-2, 181 pounds), Memphis’ Calvin Austin III (5-foot-8, 170) and SMU’s Danny Gray (six-foot, 186) assured themselves of being drafted by posting blistering 40-yard dash times in the 4.2s on the watches of some of the scouts in the stands, but it was big-bodied wideouts such as Watson (6-foot-4, 208), Cincinnati's Alec Pierce (6-foot-3, 211) and Tennessee’s Velus Jones Jr. (6-foot, 204) who helped their causes even more with times in the 4.3s.

It isn’t just that these are bigger men moving that fast, which catches the attention of scouts. It’s also that all three worked out exceptionally well after turning heads at the Senior Bowl. Watson, in particular, has to be included on any list of the biggest postseason risers so far. Erasing any doubt that his success at North Dakota State was due to poor competition, he caught everything in his zip code in Mobile, showing terrific concentration and body control to haul in some ugly tosses from this year’s mediocre quarterback crop and led all participants with an 11-foot-4 broad jump.

Of course, given how often North Dakota State churns out quality NFL prospects, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised at all.

4. Time to temper the "Thibodeaux is tumbling" talk

On the subject of the draft’s biggest risers and fallers since the season concluded, I find it comical that some are suggesting that Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux’s stock might be falling. Sure, he was not as productive at Oregon as his talent (or hype) suggested he would be, but that is more a reflection of the Ducks’ lack of other difference-makers along the defensive line and Pac-12 opponents’ scheming up ways to avoid the 2020 Morris Trophy winner.

Even splashier workouts from some of his edge-rushing peers stole the spotlight a bit from Thibodeaux this week, but he was quietly impressive, clocking in a 4.58-second 40-yard dash (reigning Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62 at the 2017 combine) at 6-foot-4, 254 pounds.

Even better, Thibodeaux showed off the length and strength that make him such a unique edge rusher — one capable of winning with power or speed. Despite sporting 33 1/8-inch arms that make lifting the bench press more difficult than for shorter-armed competitors, Thibodeaux led all edge defenders with 27 repetitions of 225 pounds. In fact, no one within 49 pounds of him lifted more at the combine.

A freakish talent combining some of the traits that have made Von Miller and Jadeveon Clowney unblockable at times in the NFL, Thibodeaux should still be very much in the mix for the No. 1 selection, and he’s a virtual lock to go in the top five.

3. Barno, or is it pronounced Barn-whoa?

As mentioned in the mock draft released shortly after the Super Bowl, winning in today’s NFL is as much about pressuring the opponent’s quarterback as it is about having your own star at the position. Fortunately, this year’s class is loaded with quality edge rushers, including the aforementioned Thibodeaux, fellow top-five cinch Aidan Hutchinson and many others.

Dating back to Michael Vick, Virginia Tech has a history of producing elite athletes, and Amare Barno stole the spotlight this year among the edge rushers, with the 6-foot-5, 246-pounder showing off the kind of explosiveness that could force a team to gamble early on his upside. Not only did Barno run a mind-numbing 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, but also his broad jump of 10-foot-11 was a full three inches longer than that of any other edge defender, and he was within an inch of the top vertical jump (37 inches) among those players as well.

Critics will use the same argument for Barno that they use for Thibodeaux: For all of this athleticism, where was the college production? Barno, after all, registered just 3.5 sacks this past season.

That is why if a team is going to gamble on sheer athletic upside, fellow edge rushers such as Michigan’s David Ojabo or Georgia’s Travon Walker should be off the board before a team considers a project such as Barno or Minnesota’s Boye Mafe — all of whom possibly punched first-round tickets with their stellar workouts in Indianapolis.

2. Underrated no longer, linebackers lining up for early picks

While the edge rushers, receivers and defensive backs of this class have consistently drawn praise, an underrated crop of off-ball linebackers has quietly waited in the wings. Over the weekend, as if waiting to pounce on a slow-developing screen, they attacked.

Perhaps the biggest winner at the position was Georgia’s Channing Tindall, who didn’t just emerge from Butkus Award-winning teammate Nakobe Dean’s shadow; he exploded past it, clocking a 4.47-second time in the 40-yard dash and tying with UTSA cornerback Tariq Woolen for the highest vertical jump recorded this year, at a stunning 42 inches.

A loaded Georgia depth chart full of future draft picks kept Tindall out of the starting lineup until this past season, but his tape and production this year are just as exciting as the traits he demonstrated this weekend. Tindall was unquestionably one of the combine’s biggest winners, with a top-50 selection possible.

While Tindall deserves top billing, his former SEC opponent Christian Harris of Alabama also had a stellar showing, as did Wisconsin’s Leo Chenal, Wyoming’s Chad Muma and Oklahoma State’s Malcolm Rodriguez.

1. 40-yard dash lessens Kyle Hamilton’s hold on top safety spot — but not as much as you’d think

The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Hamilton seemed to have a lock on the top position at safety, but some will question that after he was clocked at 4.59 seconds in the 40-yard dash, especially with his top competitors — Michigan’s Dax Hill and Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker — timing at 4.38 and 4.49, respectively.

Now, before overreacting to a tenth of a second (or two) in workouts, perhaps it is worth remembering that starting safeties in this year’s Super Bowl — Taylor Rapp for the Rams and Jessie Bates for the Bengals — were clocked at 4.78 and 4.50 in their respective workouts, so a slower-than-expected time in the 40-yard dash does not mean a safety can’t be effective in the NFL.

It does, however, mean that the gap between Hamilton and his peers has narrowed, even with Hamilton otherwise performing well in Indianapolis, with a 38-inch vertical jump and just under an 11-foot broad jump (10-foot-11), which ranked second and third, respectively, at the position.

And what scouts really like about Hamilton is his awareness and body control for his size — things that don’t stand out in timed drills but can be seen in the positional workout.

The real story at safety is not so much that Hamilton performed poorly in the 40-yard dash but that Hill, Brisker and Georgia’s Lewis Cine are legitimate first-round candidates as well.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.