National Football League

Justin Jefferson's hidden impact; what are Bears doing with Justin Fields?

Published Sep. 26, 2022 9:18 p.m. ET

By Carmen Vitali
FOX Sports NFC North Writer

Week 3 provided absolutely no chill, as we again saw dramatic and unexpected performances across the league. The NFC North was no exception. There is now a three-way tie for first place in the division between the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, all knotted at 2-1 on the season.

What's even more wild: while the 2-1 Bears are averaging 17.3 points a game, the 1-2 Detroit Lions are averaging 32 points per game. This league, am I right?

And while we thoroughly covered the Packers surviving a game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend, here are a few other things that stood out around the division in Week 3.

Bears QB Justin Fields Still Playing Backyard Football

Heading into Week 3, the Chicago Bears coaching staff vowed to be more balanced on offense. Quarterback Justin Fields was coming off a game against the division-rival Packers in which he attempted just 11 passes (more if you count plays negated by penalty, I suppose).

In short, it didn't happen. And we might want to start asking questions. Chicago was playing at home against a Houston Texans team that had gven up the second-most yards per game in the league coming into the matchup. They were conceding the sixth-most passing yards per game, specifically. Surely, this was the opportunity to let Fields cook.

The stove, however, only reached lukewarm temperatures, with Fields completing eight of 17 pass attempts for 106 yards and two interceptions. He took five sacks. His passer rating was 27.7.

There are flashes, still. Like a third-quarter bootleg where Fields rolled out to his right and hit a wide-open Equinameous St. Brown on the run that set up first and goal for the Bears. They'd score on yet another ferocious Khalil Herbert run. Fields looks almost Aaron Rodgers-like in these instances, fitting into a similar system as their aforementioned rivals run up north.

But then there are times, like when he trips over his own offensive line (he did so twice against Houston), that things just seem completely disjointed. The plays Fields makes are those more reminiscent of football games played in backyards across Chicagoland rather than a well-rehearsed, organized offense at the highest level of the sport. They are the exception so far, not the rule, and they are anything but consistent.

And yet Fields doesn't seem fazed. Even when he's faced one-on-one with defenders in the backfield, he doesn't panic — he just tosses it away. He doesn't hesitate to take a sack after he's held onto the ball a bit too long. Taking hits just seems like a part of the game for him.

Fields doesn't have to live like this. He shouldn't have more rushing yards (47) in the first half than passing yards (45). He's the quarterback. And the Bears need to decide between figuring that out and developing his skillset or maybe winning games.

Chicago had yet another stellar performance on the ground, even after David Montgomery exited with an injury. Herbert stepped in to the tune of 157 yards on 20 carries, good for a 7.9 yards-per-carry average. He got into the end zone twice. The Bears tallied 281 total rushing yards on 40 plays. By contrast, they only threw the ball 17 times. That's just three percent more than they did last week against the Packers.

They can eke out wins that way, sure. Especially with how much their defense is coming along. But if they do, they won't be any closer to figuring out if they have a franchise quarterback than they are right now.

Roquan Smith playing well as he seeks new contract

There may have been some growing pains for Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith now that he's playing more of the weakside linebacker role in the Bears' new 4-3 scheme. Sunday showed that he's accelerated past that curve and is back in the driver's seat of that defense.

Smith led the team with 16 combined tackles. He also came up with two tackles for loss, one of which came on third-and-1 at the 1-yard line to complete the Bears' goal-line stand, preventing the Texans from getting into the end zone in the third quarter.

The sixth gear of Smith's performance came on an interception in which he tracked Houston quarterback Davis Mills' eyes and jumped a route, just as defensive tackle Angelo Blackson got a hand on the ball to tip it. Smith caught it and returned the ball to set up the Bears' game-winning field goal as kicker Cairo Santos booted his third kick 30 yards through the uprights to make the final score 23-20 and help the Bears to a 2-1 start.

If Smith keeps this up, his gamble to go into 2022 without a contract extension will almost certainly (literally) pay off.

Dan Campbell: Analytics Guy?

Yes, the Minnesota Vikings held the Detroit Lions to their lowest third-down conversion rate (18.8%) since 2018. That is objectively bad for Detroit. No argument there. But what that stat doesn't account for is how many times the Lions went for it on fourth down, therefore negating the significance of quite a few of those third downs. Detroit opted to go for it six times in the game, including once in their own territory, and they converted four of them. Jack Fox didn't punt the ball for the first time until there was 1:12 left in the first half on the Lions' fifth drive of the day.

For as much of a jock reputation as Lions head coach Dan Campbell has, he may have been listening to the analytics on this one.

But don't rejoice just yet, nerds, because it may have ultimately been the difference in the game. With Detroit up 14-7 in the second quarter, Campbell elected to go for it on fourth-and-1 at Detroit's own 49-yard line. They didn't convert. And with the favorable field position, Minnesota marched down the field, converting a fourth-and-6 of their own, and punched it into the end zone to tie the game on a four-yard scamper by running back Dalvin Cook.

Even before the touchdown, the Lions’ pre-snap win probability was 49.8%, according to Next Gen Stats. Post-snap? It was 38.9%. Then there are the unquantifiable questions: Had Minnesota not taken over in plus-territory, would they have spanned the field? Would they have scored? Or would the Lions have remained in control of the game through the half?

These are the things the analytics guys can't and won't tell you — and it might be where Campbell should have stuck with his football-guy guns.

Justin Jefferson didn’t light up the stat sheet, but made a big impact

If you watched the game and know anything about the Minnesota Vikings’ offense, you might have found yourself asking where in the world young superstar receiver Justin Jefferson was throughout the game. On the stat sheet, Jefferson was uncharacteristically quiet. He caught just three passes for 14 yards. And while the Lions' defense had just a 43.9 coverage grade against Jefferson, according to PFF, Jefferson caught just two passes on four targets where cornerback Jeff Okudah was the closest defender on three of six targets overall.

So you might even go so far as to say Jefferson was rendered ineffective.

But that quite simply isn't true. Okudah often wasn't the only one charged with defending Jefferson, who faced double coverage quite a bit during the game. Detroit’s focus during defensive meetings leading up to the game was almost certainly how to contain Jefferson. And when you allocate a lot of resources toward stopping one player, your opponent is certain to find open alternatives.

Enter wide receiver K.J. Osborn.

Osborn had a fantastic day for the Vikings, highlighted by a 53-yard game-winning touchdown pass with under a minute to play in the fourth quarter. Overall, Osborn caught five of eight targets for a total of 73 yards on the day.

Veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen was also a beneficiary of all the attention being paid to Jefferson. He escaped the defense for the Vikings' first touchdown of the game, skimming along the back of the end zone unguarded where Cousins hit him off a play fake for the one-yard score in the second quarter. It was the 50th touchdown reception of Thielen’s career, making him just the fourth undrafted player since 1967 with 50 or more touchdown receptions. He joined the likes of Antonio Gates, Rod Smith and Wes Welker. No big deal.

In all, nine different players caught passes for the Vikings on Sunday. So while Jefferson may not have been a focal point for quarterback Kirk Cousins, he was for the Lions defense, which took the focus off the rest of the Vikings' offense and allowed for a more balanced attack in the process.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.