National Football League

Buccaneers-Cowboys preview: Week 1 NFL guide, analysis, prediction

Published Sep. 8, 2022 7:21 p.m. ET

The first full Sunday of the 2022 NFL season concludes with a matchup between two NFC playoff teams from last season, when the Dallas Cowboys pay host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

FOX Sports' staff of NFL writers has assembled a guide to every Week 1 contest. Be sure to check back throughout the coming season for weekly matchup analysis and game predictions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

Overview: The 2021 season opener between these two teams was an instant classic, so why mess with a good thing? The Cowboys and Buccaneers were two of the NFC's best teams throughout 2021, but both campaigns ended in bitter disappointment. How do they respond?

Tom Brady is back after a brief retirement, and he has a new head coach after Todd Bowles replaced Bruce Arians in the middle of the offseason. The Cowboys have been through a year of transition with major personnel changes on offense, but there are still big expectations on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and a star-studded defense to carry the Cowboys back to the postseason.

This is an early measuring stick for 2021's two most potent offenses that will do a lot to shape the way we think about the NFC pecking order.

Matchup to watch: It's all about the offensive line — on both sides of the ball

The Buccaneers have lost two starters on the interior, most notably Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen, while the Cowboys are dealing with losing All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith to a knee injury for most of the season. In both cases, young and inexperienced draft picks will be asked to fill the void. In case you hadn't heard, both of these teams employ terrifying pass rushers. Whichever line holds up best should have a big say in the outcome.

Key stat: Tom Brady is 6-0 in six career starts against Dallas.

Prediction: The quarterbacks get all the love, especially after the show they put on last season. But this might be a matchup that's decided by two nasty defenses. The Bucs return most of the starters from their Super Bowl LV defense, and they added Akiem Hicks to the mix. The Cowboys have all the major players back from last year's electric unit — highlighted by Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. Who comes away with more takeaways? Who does the better job affecting the other team's quarterback? It should be another close matchup, but ultimately it makes sense to trust Brady's track record in games like this and assume he sneaks out of AT&T Stadium with a close victory. Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 16 — David Helman