2023 College Football Week 1 predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
College football Week 1 is finally here, and I've been counting down the days.
For all of you who have been asking if we are going to do weekly picks posts and have a digital show, the answer to both questions is a resounding YES!
The first episode of my digital show and podcast is up, and starting next week, the college football-focused episodes will be released on Thursdays and be presented by Big Noon Kickoff, with an NFL-themed episode dropping on Fridays.
I look forward to sharing my best football bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you all throughout the season. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games, I've got you covered.
Let's have some fun and hopefully, make some money.
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 1.
Last year's picks (under old management): 45-24-1 (65.2%)
South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 5 p.m., ESPNU)
This is a scary game for Tulane, which returns quarterback Michael Pratt but has huge holes to fill with the departures of running back Tyjae Spears and linebackers Dorian Williams and Nick Anderson.
It's a role reversal game where the Green Wave are expected to win over the dangerous underdog, which is coming off a 10-win season — the two losses were by a point at UCLA and by four to eventual conference champion Troy.
Oh, the Jags have 18 starters back and are coached by one of the best up-and-coming coaches in the country in Kane Wommack. It wouldn’t shock me at all if South Alabama won this game outright. More on that later.
PICK: South Alabama (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Boise State at No. 10 Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
I don’t like this matchup at all for Boise State. I don't normally like hopping on one of the buzz teams to start the season, but UW should be able to control the line of scrimmage, especially when its defense is on the field to slow down the Boise running game. I’m not sure Taylen Green and the group of wideouts really concern Washington, either.
I also get the sense this game is a big deal for UW, given Boise’s relevance in the region and its reputation for pulling upsets in the past. But this team isn't capable of pulling a Pac-12 stunner, as it lost by 17 last year at Oregon State in a game in which it allowed close to 500 yards and turned it over five times.
Look for the Huskies to put up a big number here. Lay the points.
PICK: Washington (-14) to win by more than 14 points
Fresno State at Purdue (Saturday, noon, Big Ten)
This number has dropped from the opener of 6.5, and I think it's a little too much of an overreaction to a combination of coach Jeff Brohm departing for Louisville and losing a bunch of key offensive pieces from last year's Big Ten West champions.
Factor in the name value of Fresno State, and that doesn’t hurt. But quarterback Jake Haener is gone from the Bulldogs, which is a big loss.
I liked Purdue's hiring of Ryan Walters as coach, and bringing in offensive coordinator Graham Harrell (from West Virginia) and QB Hudson Card (from Texas) should help some of the concerns about starting over on offense.
Purdue might be a little shorthanded and certainly will not be as good as last year, but I’m buying low here against a trendy underdog.
PICK: Purdue (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Middle Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., SEC)
Coach Nick Saban typically does not run up the score on overmatched opponents. That doesn’t mean the talent discrepancy hasn’t led to lopsided scores in the past, but this is an interesting spot.
We don’t know Alabama’s plan at QB, and my guess is all three will play. While the team needs to open up the playbook and see who excels in what role, how much do they really want to show their hand before the big Texas game?
Middle Tennessee will likely struggle to score points, but if the Blue Raiders can score one touchdown, that might just be enough to cover the big number in what is an interesting spot for the Tide.
PICK: Middle Tennessee (+39.5) to lose by fewer than 39.5 points (or win outright)
Colorado at No. 17 TCU (Saturday, noon, FOX and FOX Sports App)
While TCU has to replace a ton offensively, don’t let that fool you — this will still be a potent offense, as QB Chandler Morris is thought to be better than last year’s starter Max Duggan, and the receiver room, featuring Oklahoma State transfer JP Richardson along with tight end Jared Wiley, should offer opposing defenses plenty to worry about.
Factor in an entirely new CU defense that wasn’t together for spring ball, and this has the potential for missed assignments and lack of cohesion, meaning the Horned Frogs should threaten the 50-point mark. Give me the team total over.
Side note: This will be my first Big Noon Kickoff game, so look for me during the broadcast.
PICK: TCU team total Over 41.5 points
Can Coach Prime's Buffaloes top Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs?
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
If you are feeling frisky, here are a couple of dogs I like to bark this weekend.
South Alabama: +210 (bet $10 to win $31 total)
Bowling Green: +290 at Liberty
Toledo: +290 at Illinois
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
