.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
Mailbag: How the BYU controversy could affect Big 12 expansion
As regular readers know, I like to make jokes about conference realignment, in particular your seemingly endless fascination with the subject. But on Monday, Big 12 expansion took a much more serious turn.
As I reported, a coalition of LGBT advocacy groups, led by Athlete Ally, wrote a letter urging the conference to drop BYU from consideration due to what they contend are discriminatory policies toward LGBT students. It’s an unquestionably complicated subject, and I’d invite you to listen to this week’s podcast episode where Bruce Feldman and I discussed the broader topic in more detail.
As for the football implications …
Stewart: Do you expect that the Athlete Ally letter sent to the Big 12 and all its member schools will have an effect on whether BYU gets invited into the Big 12? Thanks.
-- Devon Miller, Mesa, Arizona
I know this sounds like a cop-out, but I honestly don’t know, though plugged-in Dallas Morning News reporter Chuck Carlton quoted league sources Tuesday saying “[the letter] is now a significant factor.” Like with all things Big 12 realignment-related, it will depend on the thought-process of 10 people – the 10 presidents of the current Big 12 schools. And presidents aren’t easy to read.
Unlike the Big Ten, where commissioner Jim Delany clearly drives key decisions like expansion and the schools mostly follow his lead, the dynamic in the Big 12 since its inception 20 years ago is that the presidents set policy and the commissioner – in this case Bob Bowlsby – takes his marching orders from them. And as of today the only order we know of was to go out and contact candidates.
If in fact the presidents had already been considering BYU, then I can’t imagine they were oblivious to the school’s LGBT policies before Monday. But the letter and its accompanying coverage may have spelled out those policies in greater detail than they were previously aware. There will undoubtedly be discussions about the issues raised if and when BYU’s candidacy comes up. But your guess is as good as mine as to how they’ll weigh those concerns -- if at all -- relative to the strengths of BYU’s football program and overall athletic department.
The Big 12’s process has been so haphazard to this point that ultimately there’s almost no scenario that would surprise me, but I wrote last week that Cincinnati and Houston seemed the likeliest options. Cincinnati now seems the safest bet simply because it has no real baggage. (Note: It says a lot about the pool of candidates when “no baggage” is a selling point.) IF after that there’s only one other spot, and IF it comes down to Houston and BYU, do the LGBT concerns turn BYU into the odd man out? Or does fear of Houston becoming “too good” in football trump BYU’s discrimination questions?
Stay tuned.
Stewart, can you remember a season with so many great running backs returning? LSU’s Leonard Fournette, Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, FSU’s Dalvin Cook, Oregon’s Royce Freeman and Georgia’s Nick Chubb are considered Heisman frontrunners, but Tennessee’s Jalen Hurd, Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine, Clemson’s Wayne Gallman, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, Pitt’s James Conner and UNC’s Elijah Hood are also outstanding.
-- Pete Gerski, New Berlin, Wisconsin
I can’t recall anything close to it.
In 2007, when I was at Sports Illustrated, we ran as our season preview cover a “Year of the Running Back” theme. For the purposes of this answer I went back and looked at who the returning rushing leaders were that year, and it was unquestionably a talented group: Arkansas’ Darren McFadden, Rutgers’ Ray Rice, West Virginia’s Steve Slaton, Michigan’s Mike Hart, Boise State’s Ian Johnson and Wisconsin’s P.J. Hill, among others.
But the names you just listed are both more impressive at the top and far deeper top to bottom. It says something that Perine, who as a freshman ran for more yards in a game than any player in history (427 vs. Kansas) and has already topped 3,000 career yards in two seasons, is not even mentioned in the group of “Heisman frontrunners.”
I’m pumped to watch these guys, and I will make three predictions. One, if Dalvin Cook stays healthy he will by season’s end be talked about in the same breath as McCaffrey and Fournette because he’s unbelievable. The guy averaged 7.4 yards a carry last season. Secondly, at least one guy listed in the second group will make it to New York. My money’s on Conner or Barkley.
And finally, unfortunately, we know from recent history that between them there will likely be a lot of missed games due to injury. Sadly, that’s been par for the course with running backs lately.
Hopefully I’m wrong on the last one.
You have often noted that there is a correlation between recruitment rankings and results (despite people’s love of citing three-star Super Bowl players). If you put aside preseason rankings, returning starters etc. and just look at this year’s rosters based on past recruitment rankings, which teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs?
-- Kevin Huffman, Nashville
It’s an interesting question, because I’ve seen some in the analytics crowd contend that recruiting rankings are the single best predictor of how a team will finish. The anti-recruiting recruiting crowd would counter with Michigan State, which doesn’t sign Top 10 classes and it made the playoff last year, or Oregon the year before, but those are the outliers. The other six participants during that time – Alabama (twice), Ohio State, Florida State, Clemson and Oklahoma – are all regulars in the Top 10-15 on the recruiting sites.
So if that pattern of the first two seasons holds in 2016, you could narrow down three of the four playoff teams right now to a pool of 12 schools that averaged a Top 15 recruiting ranking the past four years (using 247Sports’ composite rankings): Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, USC and UCLA.
If you’re planning to go to Vegas and put down some futures bets, you’d be wise to stick mostly to that group, while knowing that a Stanford, Oklahoma (which slipped a little from 2013-16), TCU or Washington could well claim the fourth spot.
Hi Stewart: If Vernon Adams Jr. doesn't get injured in the Alamo Bowl against TCU and Oregon cruises to a 52-10 victory, is the program ranked higher this preseason? The taste in everyone's mouth from that second half debacle seems to override the fact that the Ducks finished the regular season with six wins in a row, including against Stanford, USC and everyone's darlings, Washington.
-- Scott, Portland, Oregon
One of my favorite storylines of the preseason so far is how incredulous Oregon fans are that the Ducks are ranked lower than Washington, the hated rival who they’ve beaten a mere 12 years in a row.
But Scott is right. If Oregon didn’t blow a 31-0 lead against Trevone Boykin-less TCU and finished the year 10-3 instead of 9-4, it would unquestionably be ranked higher than 22nd in the preseason coaches poll. I’ve long mocked the deceiving “bowl bump” some teams get in the following year’s rankings; this appears to be the opposite effect.
But both the second half of that game and the earlier stretch of the season when Oregon looked so woeful without Adams showed just how empty the cupboard was at quarterback behind him. So now, understandably, many people are skeptical how the Ducks will fare this year without him. Count me among them; I left Oregon out of my preseason Top 25 entirely.
Yes, the Ducks have star running back Royce Freeman and great receivers, but yet again, they’re counting on an FCS transfer, Dakota Prukop, to come in and save the day. By all accounts, Prukop is promising but not a game-changer the caliber of Adams, who wound up leading all of FBS in pass efficiency. The assembly line of stud quarterbacks Oregon once enjoyed apparently tripped up sometime during the Marcus Mariota era, and unfortunately, it may catch up to the program this year.
Stewart: With all the recent renewed conference realignment discussions, I'm wondering if you think there are any schools out there that previously jumped conferences and now regret it? Any cautionary tales, or has it always worked out the way they hoped for the most part.
-- Greg, Maryland (I don't regret moving to the Big Ten)
You’d be hard-pressed to find a school that “regrets” having moved conferences over the last 15 years because all of them made more money than they would have in their old conference, and many of them really had no choice. For example, while many at Syracuse (most notably Jim Boeheim) would have preferred not to have to leave the Big East for the ACC, the end was already near for that conference. You can’t really regret jumping off a sinking ship.
Meanwhile, some have suggested Colorado regrets going to the Pac-12 and/or Missouri to the SEC, but both are in much more stable places long-term than they would have had they remained in the Big 12.
But one interesting case study would be the very school that touched off the modern realignment wave – Miami. For those that don’t remember college football circa 2003, the landscape had been pretty stable for about a decade before the ACC lured the then-dominant Hurricanes away from the Big East. (Virginia Tech and Boston College were essentially throw-ins.) Miami has never come close to recapturing the success it had in its old conference, nor does it enjoy nearly the same big fish-small pond status they did in the Big East.
It’d mostly be revisionist history now to suggest Miami made the wrong move. The program likely would have gone in the toilet regardless of the conference change, and while the Big East’s gradual demise began with Miami’s departure, it likely would have happened eventually. The football-basketball disharmony was always an issue. Taken in a vacuum, though, where TV revenue and conference networks aren’t factors, it’s hard to argue Miami is a better fit in the ACC of 2016 than it was the Big East of 2001.
Could Minnesota do this year what Iowa did last year with their schedule and being in that division?
-- Vomo, West Des Moines, Iowa
I see what you’re saying. The Gophers do not face Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State and its lone Power 5 non-conference foe, Oregon State, went 2-10 last year. I can’t see Minnesota going 12-0, but maybe 10-2? It would still be quite the story since I’m guessing 99 percent of even diehard college football fans cannot currently name Minnesota’s coach.
Nope. Try again.
Hi Stewart: How do you like Penn State’s chances to make noise in the Big Ten and improve (finally) upon the last two years.
-- Brian Manoff, New York
First off, it’s amazing to me how unforgiving Penn State fans have been about James Franklin’s first two seasons given the MASSIVE SCHOLARSHIP REDUCTIONS that directly impacted his roster. How dare he only go 7-6.
But yes, I believe the Nittany Lions will finally take a big step forward this year. As much as I admired Christian Hackenberg for his loyalty and resilience during a tumultuous career, both he and Franklin badly needed a fresh start for the program to truly move forward. Penn State’s once-decimated offensive line is finally up to Big Ten standards, Barkley is a big-time running back who went for nearly 200 yards against Ohio State, the receivers are decent, and perhaps most importantly, new coordinator Joe Moorhead’s philosophy seems to fit well with the personnel he inherited.
If my prediction does not come to fruition, though, and Penn State fails to reach the eight- or nine-win mark, it will likely be due to another notable change to Franklin’s staff. Bob Shoop had established himself as one of the absolute best defensive coordinators in the country, and losing him to Tennessee hurt. Replacement Brent Pry had been Shoop’s co-coordinator for five years, dating to their time together at Vanderbilt, so Penn State is hardly starting over, but nor does that guarantee it will avoid a dropoff on defense.
Every discussion of possibly expanding the CFP to eight teams assumes such expansion would guarantee that all Power 5 conference champions are included. Yet it is quite possible for a conference champ to be ranked outside of the top eight. This year, it would take three conferences with two strong teams to occupy six slots plus a strong season by either Notre Dame or Houston. Would any expansion require that all five Power 5 champs make the playoff regardless of ranking?
-- Gerry Swider, Sherman Oaks, California
If anything, the first two seasons of the CFP have been an anomaly in that all five power conference champs have won at least 11 games both seasons and none finished lower than sixth in the committee rankings. That was rarely the case in the BCS, where in the 2011 season alone we saw automatic bids go to teams ranked 10th (Big Ten champ Wisconsin), 15th (ACC champ Clemson) and 23rd (Big East champ West Virginia). I fully assume we’ll see at least one Power 5 conference produce a 9-3-type champ as soon as this season.
Keeping all that in mind, I would not hold your breath if you think an eight-team playoff would consist of the top eight teams. The Power 5 started the CFP, and they’re not likely to expand it without assuring themselves an annual berth. And by the way, once they do that, they will almost certainly then be pressured to reserve a spot for the top Group of 5 champ as well, which in the first two years have been ranked 20th (2014 Boise State) and No. 18 (2015 Houston).
So again, I would prefer it to stay at four for many reasons, one of them being that the teams still have to be excellent all season to qualify. But I’m well aware that many fans would be just fine with an 9-4 Pac-12 champ that pulls an early December upset getting the No. 8 seed simply because it would be less subjective.
Hi Stewart. I just read your ranking of the Top 20 coaches in college football. I wasn't terribly surprised by any of your choices but one definitely stands out: Navy's Ken Niumatalolo. He's had a pretty strong eight years with the Midshipman. Are you surprised he hasn't taken a shot at a bigger program by now?
-- Philip Allison, Starkville, Mississippi
The BYU job was Niumatalolo’s if he wanted it last winter, but the 51-year-old, who’s now spent 16 years in Annapolis as either an assistant or head coach, decided to stay put. Niumatalolo is a devout Mormon, so the opportunity was undoubtedly tempting. You can debate whether BYU is a better job than Navy as of today, but the possibility existed then, as it does now, that the school might soon move up to a power conference, at which point it’s seemingly a no-brainer.
As for a shot at an even higher-profile program, Niumatalolo is likely limited by much the same hurdle as his predecessor and now ninth-year Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson. In today’s climate there’s a stigma attached to the triple-option. It’s perceived as outdated, that blue-chip quarterbacks and receivers don’t want to play in it and fans don’t want to watch it.
Put it this way: A coach who took Georgia Tech to two Orange Bowls running a pro-style offense would likely be in the SEC by now, and a coach who went 68-37 at a service academy running the spread would be in the ACC.
Would it be in Houston’s best interest to go to the Big 12, with the possibility that that Texas and Oklahoma could be looking to jump ship at the end of their current TV deal in 2025? Wouldn’t the Big 12 just be a glorified Conference USA again?
-- Marcus Terry, location unknown
Let me put it to you this way: If you currently drive a Nissan Versa, and someone comes and offers to replace it with a Maserati, but with the caveat that someone might total your Maserati in 2025, would you still take the deal?
Houston’s going if offered. No offense to the AAC. Or Nissan owners.
