This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ve previewed a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The AL West: Texas Rangers. Up next: Seattle Mariners
LAST SEASON
84-78 (third place in AL West)
WHATS NEW
Key additions: OF/DH Carlos Beltran (free agent from Rangers), C Brian McCann (trade from Yankees), OF Josh Reddick (free agent from Dodgers), SP Charlie Morton (free agent from Phillies), OF Nori Aoki (waivers from Mariners)
Carlos Beltran
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Key subtractions: 3B Luis Valbuena (free agent to Angels), OF Colby Rasmus (free agent to Rays), RP Pat Neshek (trade to Phillies), SP Doug Fister (free agent), C Jason Castro (free agent to Twins)
3 STRIKES
Jose Altuve
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
1. Is contention looming? After the Astros broke out in 2015 and made the postseason, many expected bigger and better things in 2016. That didn’t happen. Houston was a good team — it won 84 games — but was never in contention in the AL West after a slow start to the 2016 season. Is this still the team that was, in many ways, the proto-Cubs, or did the 2016 disappointment uncover critical cracks in Houston’s plan? The 2017 season will prove insightful to that question, but if the Astros are to get back on track — and, in turn, contend for not only for a division title but also the World Series — they’ll have to address their biggest problem from 2016:
Dallas Keuchel
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
2. Rotation questions. Houston’s starting pitching was woeful last season. Its top four starters all had ERAs well above 4, as the team posted a starter ERA of 4.37 (a year after it was eighth in baseball with a 3.71 starter ERA). The most notable regression came from Dallas Keuchel, who after winning the Cy Young Award in 2015, laid a big, rotten egg in 2016, posting a 4.55 ERA in 26 starts. There are reasons to believe that Keuchel will bounce back in 2017 — his FIP was 0.68 points lower than his ERA — and his return to form is necessary if the Astros are to get back into the postseason. That burden is so heavy because the Astros did little to bolster their rotation ahead of the 2017 season.
The Astros are expecting bounce-back years from Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers, and are hoping that Lance McCullers can give them a full, solid year. Charlie Morton, signed this offseason after the Phillies let him walk, has a chance to be special — he looked electric at times in Philadelphia — but has plenty of injury concerns. Ultimately, everyone in Houston’s rotation enters the season on uneven footing but with an incredible necessity to quickly codify. The team won’t go anywhere without its rotation, even though it has:
Troy Taormina
3. Four cornerstones. Houston landed two big-time free agents in Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick, and traded for backstop Brian McCann, because it doesn’t want to waste another year of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. And who can blame them? But the Astros have another cornerstone in place as well — third baseman Alex Bregman, who posted a 112 wRC+ (100 is league average, 140 is MVP candidacy, Bryce Harper did 197 in 2015) in 49 games last season, despite a 1-for-32 start at the plate. If this Astros lineup can stay healthy, it has a very good chance to lead the AL in runs scored. How many will they allow, though?
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
Proving last year was just weird, the Astros lead the AL in runs scored and the rotation is better than league average to go with a strong bullpen (the Astros have a chance to have the best relief corps in the AL). And Houston wins the West and the World Series.
Ken Giles
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Correa battles injuries again, the rotation doesn’t bounce back and the bullpen is volatile. Houston flounders around .500 and larger questions must be asked about the team’s direction.
SURPRISING STAT
Houston was 4-15 against the division-winning Rangers last season. Turning that record around will go a long way to turning around the 2017 season for the ‘Stros.
BEST BETS
Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 87.5
World Series odds (via Vegas Insider): 12/1
TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS
1. Jose Altuve, 2B: Altuve is a no-doubt, early first-round stud. If you want to pick him second after Mike Trout, you’ll get no argument here.
2. Carlos Correa, SS: Correa disappointed some fantasy owners last season, but it’s hard to be too angry with a 21-year-old shortstop who hit 20 homers with 96 RBI and 13 stolen bases. In the middle of the second round, he’ll be solid.
3. George Springer, OF: Springer hit 29 homers and scored 116 runs in his first full season. But here’s a warning: He was caught 10 times in 19 stolen-base attempts. The Astros probably won’t let him run as often again.
4. Ken Giles, RP: Giles whiffed 102 batters in 65.2 innings last season, qualifying him as an elite strikeout reliever. With a full season coming as the Astros’ closer, he should be a solid pick after the big-name closers come off the board.
5. Alex Bregman, 3B: Bregman is very talented and was terrific after some early struggles as a rookie. However, drafting him as a top-10 third baseman might be asking for too much, too soon.
(Courtesy of the FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)
PREDICTION
Everything that went wrong for the Astros last year goes right in 2017. Houston wins the pennant.
