Whiparound: A conspiracy theory about 'juiced' baseballs in MLB & more
Matt Moore had the started he badly needed last week for the Giants and came one out away from throwing baseball's 296th no-hitter. Is anyone else tired of these overreactions to pitch counts?
Let's go Whip...
The 'juiced' baseball conspiracy
Baseball wakes up Monday morning with their offense swatting 1.17 home runs per game, currently tied for the highest mark in the game's history (2000). What gives? We are supposed to be in the pitching era and in many ways we are.
Pitchers are throwing harder and strikeouts are at an all-time high at 8.0 per nine innings. Batters however are also swinger harder and they are doing it all the time. The two-strike approach is a lost art and regardless of how many coaches I talk to I get the same response when I ask them why: hitters don't care about strikeouts and neither do organizations, as long as they are hitting the long ball.
This theory is a fascinating one and the data backs it up. Stats, LLC can track two-strike at bats as far back as 1988 and the numbers don't lie.
For the furthest five-year period I can track, 1988-1992, a home run was hit once every 72 at-bats with two strikes on the batter. In the most recent five-year period, 2012-2016, a home run was being hit every 58 at bats with two strikes. Batting average is down and slugging is slightly up for that more recent five-year period, which is no surprise when you consider the change in approach.
2016 is currently on track to be the sixth-highest two-strike home run per at-bat rate in the past 29 seasons. The five in front of 2016 all took place during the PED era. We are in some historic times when it comes to the power game in baseball.
There are other factors as well. I have heard more than a few whispers about the baseballs being juiced. That's a conspiracy theory I'm not ready to chase, but it wouldn't surprise me. FS1 also recently ran a video feature on Louisville Slugger, the long time bat maker. In the feature a rep from the company casually mentioned that they currently coat their bats with a lacquer that makes them two-times harder than they have ever been. As a former pitcher my antenna immediately went off. In the piece it was not explored any further.
Long ball history
Albert Pujols climbed the ladder this week when he passed Mark McGwire for sole possession of 10th on MLB's all-time home run list when he blasted the 584th long ball of his career.
The Machine continues to impress at 36 years old and I couldn't help but what wonder where he could possibly finish his career on our sport's most illustrious top 10 list.
Pujols incredibly has five more full seasons left on his 10-year, $240 million contract that will take him through his age 41-season. He has hit 25 homeruns already this season and it's fair to assume that he'll finish with 30 in 2016.
Assuming the 30 home runs for this year, Pujols will have 589 home runs heading into 2017. Regression with his age will most certainly continue, but here is what it would take for him jump those on the top of the list:
Barry Bonds -- 762. 173 away, 34.6 per year.
Hank Aaron -- 755. 166 away, 33.2 per year.
Babe Ruth -- 714. 125 away, 25.0 per year
Alex Rodriquez -- 696. 107 away, 21.4 per year.
Willie Mays -- 660. 71 away, 14.2 per year.
Ken Griffey, Jr. -- 630. 41 away, 8.3 per year.
Pujols will pass Frank Robinson (587) this season for 9th all-time. Sosa (609) and Thome (612) will likely happen in 2017. Barring major injury or sudden retirement Pujols should have no problem passing Jr. and even Mays. The big "if" for me is whether or not he can stay productive and healthy enough to pass A-Rod, assuming he doesn't play again. Bonds and Aaron are safe, as is likely The Babe.
It has been an incredible season and career for Albert and one that is hardly over.
Valuing chemistry
The dust has settled in the most talked about back-up catcher swap in history. 35-year old AJ Ellis is now a Phillie and 37-year old Carlos Ruiz is now a Dodger.
For the old school team chemistry is probably over valued and in the new school it is likely under valued. And like all these old school vs. new school discussions in baseball meeting somewhere in the middle probably makes the most sense.
"You never played so you wouldn't know" rebuffed with "You played too much so your judgment in clouded."
I always hated losing a good teammate to a trade but you get over it. There is value in leadership and I have always said that if I were an executive or coach I would try to build a team with good people and chemistry but not at the cost of making my roster weaker.
The Dodgers however obviously value team chemistry and clubhouse culture. If they didn't, Yasiel Puig would be back with the big club by now. The idea that he may not be back with them in September sounds real.
In the case of Ellis, the timing seemed strange and the upgrade seemed marginal. Much was made of Ruiz being better versus left-handed pitchers.
Ruiz, in 233 plate appearances, has hit 5 home runs with a .855 OPS versus lefties over the past three seasons. Ellis in that same time period has hit 7 home runs with a .759 OPS in 246 plate appearances. Marginal. There might have been something else here that we never may know. But by all accounts and in my limited dealings with him, AJ Ellis is a well respected player who can either manager or get into media almost immediately after his playing days are over if he chooses.
The Dodgers and their $250+ million payroll will have to get over this as well. It's never fun in this game but good teammates come and go and life moves on.
MLB Whip Around - The Show, airs weeknights on FS1.
