Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and the fine line between brilliance and failure
This could be a tipping point. An end to the “can’t use-your-closer-in-a-tie-game-on-the-road” foolishness. But I’m not going to join the fan and media mob crucifying Orioles manager Buck Showalter. Well, at least I won’t be at the front of the line.
The thing about baseball — especially the postseason — is that much of our analysis is outcome-based. Most of us wondered why Showalter didn’t summon star closer Zach Britton in the eighth, and right-hander Brad Brach escaped with an inning-ending double play. Most of us had the exact same thoughts in the ninth, and righty Darren O’Day escaped the exact same way.
If the Orioles would have grabbed the lead, shown just a wee bit of offensive discipline, Britton likely would have closed it out, and that would have been that. No second-guessing. No Spanish Inquisition of a news conference. If anything, Showalter might have drawn his usual praise for the way he masterfully handles his bullpen, and the Orioles would have gone on to Texas for the Division Series.
Of course, that’s not the way it went down Tuesday night in the American League Wild Card Game, which ended on a three-run homer by Edwin Encarnacion off right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez in the 11th inning, ended with Britton, the best reliever in baseball in 2016, never throwing a pitch.
Most of us resumed first-guessing when lefty Brian Duensing started the 11th — and struck out the left-handed hitting Ezequiel Carrera. And most of us continued first-guessing when Jimenez replaced Duensing — and never mind that Jimenez had a 2.45 ERA in seven starts since returning to the rotation, including 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays last Thursday.
The Jays’ next three hitters — Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson and Encarnacion — all were right-handed, but never mind that, either. Britton during the regular season actually was better against righties (.410 OPS in 181 at-bats) than lefties (.495 in 54 ABs). His groundball rate was an astonishing 79.4 percent. No one could put the ball in the air against him, much less hit him.
The decision to hold him back in a winner-take-all game was so mystifying, the only logical conclusion was that something was wrong with him physically. Showalter afterward said that was not the case, said that Britton was available and fine. Britton told reporters the same, said that he actually warmed up three times.
If all that is true, Showalter deserves all the criticism that is coming. He could have gone to Britton at any point, then improvised if the score remained tied. But at least he would have taken his best shot, preferably using Britton for two innings. Instead, he remained bizarrely wedded to his old-school usage of a closer, a traditional mindset that needs to be ditched once and for all.
Here’s the thing, though: Blue Jays manager John Gibbons easily could have faced the same type of scrutiny today for starting right-hander Marcus Stroman over lefty Francisco Liriano. But what happened? Stroman allowed only two runs in six innings, both on a homer by Mark Trumbo — a good outcome. And just like that, Gibbons looked pretty shrewd.
The Jays’ bullpen worked the final five innings without allowing a hit, Liriano pitching the final 1 2/3. So much for my pregame analysis that the Orioles held an edge due to their superior bullpen. The Orioles’ ‘pen was pretty darned good, even without Britton. But the Jays’ ‘pen was better, even with closer Roberto Osuna forced out of the game after 1 1/3 innings because he felt a “stretch” in his shoulder.
Still, the Stroman vs. Liriano decision is worth revisiting; the numbers suggested that Liriano was the better choice. The Orioles had the second-best OPS in the AL against right-handed pitching during the regular season, the worst against left-handers. But when reporters informed Gibbons before the game that he was drawing criticism for starting Stroman, the manager’s response was telling.
“That’s the way it is, huh?” Gibbons said, according to Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling. “I wasn’t aware of that. You know, to be honest with you, I don’t really care what the outside world thinks. Because they’re not in the position to have to make decisions. And it’s easy that way. But the beauty of baseball is that there are so many ways you can do different things.
“I’ll sit at home if I’m not involved in a game and I’ll think along the same lines, you know? But with the managing job — you’ve got to make tough decisions, you’ve got to know what your team can do and can’t do, and how guys tick. It’s not a perfect science. It’s really a game of human beings out there performing. An inch or two might make the difference between success and failure.”
That’s my point — my point exactly. Second-guessing now occurs in real time on social media, and such conversation is part of the game, part of what makes baseball so great. But every night it’s the same, especially in the postseason. Decision backfires, manager is a fool. Decision works, on to the next one.
I’m not exonerating Showalter; I do not understand why he failed to use Britton. But Showalter is the furthest thing from a dunderhead, and he knows his team better than anyone. For one night — whether he was simply playing dangerous odds or beholden to an outdated mode of thinking — he just screwed up.
