The time before the start of a new NASCAR season is always good for making predictions. In the weeks leading up to the Daytona 500 everyone in and around NASCAR is offering up what they think will happen during the season.
Which driver will win the Daytona 500? Who will win the 2017 NASCAR championship? Which team will end the season with the most wins? Who will get their first win during the 2017 NASCAR season?
These are just some of the predictions that NASCAR fans make before the season begins. These are also just a handful of the bold predictions that will be made in this piece.
Be sure to comment below and let me know what you think of the predictions. Also, feel free to comment and add any predictions that you think might have been missed.
Feb 18, 2016; Daytona Beach, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24), Denny Hamlin (11) and Kasey Kahne (5) during the Cam-Am Duels at Daytona race one at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
New Daytona Winner
Coming into the 2017 season there have been 38 different winners in the Great American Race. After the 2017 Daytona 500 there will be 39 different winners because the winner of the race this season will be a first-time winner.
If I had to lay odds as to which driver is going to cash in, I would go with Kyle Busch. Busch has won a lot of races in his NASCAR career but the Daytona 500 has alluded him. Busch winning the 500 would be the perfect way for the 2015 champion to start off the 2017 season.
If it’s not Kyle Busch it might be one of NASCAR’s young guns. Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney could all be fits to win one of the biggest races of the season. Regardless who win though, it will be someone who has never won the 500 before.
Nov 5, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24) during practice for the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
New Winners In 2017
Each season we try to predict which driver without a win in the Cup Series is going to get their first win. In 2017 there are going to be three new winners and it will come from the following group of drivers; Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones.
Elliott and Suarez should be locks to win this season. Both of them are going to have solid seasons and those seasons include winning at some point.
When it comes to Jones and Blaney I am torn. I lean for Blaney to win before Jones but the fact that Jones has the JGR connection concerns me. Either way three of these four drivers will come out of the 2017 season with wins.
Oct 1, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; Xfinity Series driver Ty Dillon (3) leaves the track before the start of the Drive Sober 200 at Dover International Speedway. NASCAR postpones race to Sunday due to rain. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dillon A Non-Factor
Sorry Ty Dillon fans but the new driver of the No. 13 machine is going to be a non-factor this season. Dillon enters 2017 in a rookie class with Gray Gaulding, Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez but he will not perform well enough to make an impact.
Part of the issue is going to be the No. 13 team. Casey Mears did not have that great of a season in the No. 13 machine last season so it’s hard to believe Dillon doing that much better.
Dillon will out-perform Gaulding in 2017 but that’s about it. The silver lining here would be if he out-performs Paul Menard and is moved to RCR in 2018.
Nov 18, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Greg Biffle (16) during practice for the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Bye Bye Biffle
The time has come for Greg Biffle to step away from NASCAR. Following the 2016 season Biffle departed from RFR and it was thought that he would pick up a full-time ride with a smaller team. As of now that has not happened which means it’s time for Biffle to say goodbye.
At some point in 2017 Biffle will retire from NASCAR.
At this point it doesn’t even look like Biffle is going to race in 2017 and if he does it will not be on a full-time schedule. Heck, if he did find a full-time ride he would be in worse equipment than he was in 2016 and who wants to deal with that, especially at this point in his career? If you’re a Biffle fan, prepare yourself to say goodbye.
Sep 9, 2016; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kasey Kahne (5) during practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome Back Kasey
There is going to be a major Kasey Kahne sighting in 2017 and to be honest, it’s about damn time. Kahne has been a waste of space at HMS over the last two seasons. Kahne has not won a race since 2014, that was also the last time that he made the playoffs.
In 2017 Kahne is going to win a race and make it into the playoffs.
Kahne’s return to the playoffs will help HMS try to regain the top spot amongst all of the other teams. I don’t foresee Kahne going on some crazy tear and winning three races but he will win one. His results at the end of 2016 show that he is trending in the right direction.
Nov 5, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (17) during practice for the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
RFR Will Struggle
Roush Fenway Racing will begin their new future in 2017 and that future will feature Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Trevor Bayne. While I have nothing against Stenhouse and Bayne, I don’t foresee either of them accomplishing much this season.
Yes, the qualifying efforts improved in 2017 and some of the finishes did as well.
While there were marginal improvements in 2016, there wasn’t nearly enough to think that either of these drivers are going to make a major impact this season. If I had to give the nod to one over the other it would be Stenhouse but even that’s not saying much. Stenhouse won’t win in 2017, and if he did make the playoffs on points he would simply be out in the first round.
If you’re fans of RFR, it’s going to be a long season.
Nov 19, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) during practice for the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Keselowski Will Lead In Wins
When it comes to racking up wins in 2017 it will be Brad Keselowski on the top of the list. Keselowski won four races in 2016 and it would be a safe bet for him to win at least five in 2017.
The big question for Keselowski is what those five wins are going to accomplish.
Keselowski needs to make it to the final-four in the playoffs. Over the last few seasons he was won a bunch of races but faded in the playoffs. In 2017 he is once again going to win a bunch of races, but can he finally get the job done in the playoffs?
Sep 18, 2016; Joliet, IL, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Danica Patrick (10) during the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Bowyer and Patrick Will Disappoint
For some there is this idea out there that Danica Patrick and Clint Bowyer have a new lease on life because of the SHR move to Ford. For Bowyer it’s more about the fact that he is with SHR and in the No. 14 machine.
Well, the result for both drivers this season is going to be disappointing. Neither driver is going to win and neither is going to make the playoffs.
Will they improve on their finishes from last season? Sure, they might. However, does it really matter if they both miss out on the playoffs? Neither of these drivers are young rookies trying to stack the building blocks of their careers, they are both veterans. At this point the only goal should be to get into the playoffs and contend for a title.
Feb 18, 2016; Daytona Beach, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (88) and NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24) race during the Cam-Am Duels at Daytona race one at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
HMS Will Lead In Wins
In what is going to be somewhat of a surprising twist, Hendrick Motorsports is going to lead the series in wins this season.
Jimmie Johnson is going to be set to go on his way to leading the team in wins. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is going to bounce back and win a handful of races as well. Add a couple of wins from Chase Elliott and Kasey Kahne to the mix and it’s a winning formula.
HMS will not edge out JGR by a lot, but only one is enough when it comes to leading the series in wins. The one thing holding JGR down this season will be the lack of Carl Edwards. Edwards could have won 3-5 races this season whereas Daniel Suarez will most likely win once at most.
JGR had a nice run at the top but that will end come this season.
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Stays Healthy
One of the biggest concerns with Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2017 is whether or not he is going to be able to make it through the entire season healthy. Earnhardt Jr. missed half of the 2016 season with concussion-like symptoms and 2017 will be the first time that he returns to the track.
While this is obviously a guess and based on nothing, I will say that Earnhardt Jr. will make it through the season healthy.
I would have to imagine that if Earnhardt was this walking-fragile driver, he would not have been cleared to return to the track this season. Obviously a hard wreck could result in a concussion and that could very well happen. However, I don’t think it’s a situation where a driver bumping into him or him scraping the outside wall is going to result in a concussion.
Sep 18, 2016; Joliet, IL, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (78) and driver Kyle Busch (18) the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
The 3+ Winners Club
Each season I predict which drivers in the series will finish the year with three wins or more. This season is no different as there will once again be a handful of drivers that will win at least three races in 2017.
The drivers who will win at least three races in 2017 are:
I would have loved to have put a Kyle Larson into the list or a Chase Elliott but it’s just to hard to predict them to do that much. These five drivers should easily win three races this season on their way to a very successful 2017 run.
Mar 13, 2016; Avondale, AZ, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr (78) and Matt Kenseth (20) go below the yellow line during the Good Sam 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
15 Regular Season Winners
NASCAR will see 15 different drivers win races in 2017 before the start of the playoffs. The 15 winners will mean that only one driver is going to make the playoffs based on points.
Who is going to win races this year? Which of the drivers in the series will be the drivers to win the 15 races?
I’m not a miracle worker here so I am not going to try to predict every driver who is going to win in the first 26 races of the season. Earlier in this piece I named various drivers who I thought were going to win this season. Feel free to go back and add all of those up and see where it is that we are. The bottom line is that 15 drivers will win in the first 26 races of the season.
Sep 20, 2015; Joliet, IL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kurt Busch (41) races driver Kyle Busch (18) during the MyAFibRisk.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
The Playoff Points Will Matter
This might not come as a surprise but the playoff points are going to matter this season. With all of these different points being awarded it’s nearly impossible to think that the playoff points aren’t going to come into play in deciding who makes the final-four in the playoffs.
Now for those who might not know, the playoff points have no impact on Homestead one the final-four is set.
Getting to the final-four will be another story though. The driver that wins the most (Keselowski) is going to have the inside edge on making it to the final-four this season, especially if he gets some segment wins too.
Nov 20, 2016; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48) and NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) race off pit road during the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
The Final-Four
Who is going to make it to the final-four in the playoffs this season? It’s going to be Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and a sleeper pick in Chase Elliott.
Johnson, Busch and Keselowski are going to have dominate seasons while Elliott’s consistency will be what puts him into the final-four.
2017 is going to be a coming out part of sorts for Chase Elliott. Last season was a small taste of what Elliott can do and this season it’s going to be quite the encore. While I am giving Elliott a lot of love here, he wont be winning the championship this season.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
2017 Champion
Who is going to win the 2017 championship?
Well, that honor goes to the one and only Jimmie Johnson.
The new format and point system is going to be right in the wheel house of Johnson and the No. 48 team. Johnson isn’t going to have the mid-season struggles that he had back in 2016. In fact, Johnson is going to be laser-focused coming off of his seventh title which is why nobody in the series is going to be able to stop him from winning his eighth title.
The eighth title of course will put him all alone on the top of the mountain, not too shabby if you ask me.
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