National Basketball Association

Russell Westbrook's revenge tour will dominate the NBA next season

Published Nov. 15, 2016 3:13 p.m. ET

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Andrew Lynch

Be forewarned: Russell Westbrook will light the NBA on fire next season, and it will be amazing.

The Thunder guard eschewed conventional wisdom this week, agreeing to a two-year extension with Oklahoma City. This despite Kevin Durant's high-profile departure to Golden State — a move which was supposed to send Westbrook fleeing for greener pastures.

That's not how he's wired, though. After Durant announced his decision, reports indicated that Westbrook was pissed and the extension would seem to confirm those rumors. Next year, it's Russ and the Thunder against the world.

May God help the rest of the league, because we've never seen a fully unleashed Westbrook. As soon as the Thunder emerged on the national stage, he and Durant faced questions about how well they worked together. Although such concerns were overblown, there's no denying that Durant's presence limited Westbrook. Even when KD was sidelined by injury, Westbrook still had to hold back ever so slightly, knowing that Durant would be back soon to reestablish their give-and-take.

Now, Westbrook's ready to dominate. After all, this is Westbrook's team now, complete with a fresh start. He has a chance to rewrite the narrative of who he is as a basketball superstar — the "killer" Michael Jordan saw when he hand-picked Westbrook as his successor as Jordan Brand's signature athlete, steeled by a need to elevate his squad.

The question becomes just how explosive Westbrook will be next season. Could one of the most spectacular athletes in the game do the unimaginable? Could Westbrook join Oscar Robertson as the only players to average a triple-double?

We have some sense of the onslaught that's to come. In 61 games without Durant, Westbrook has averaged 28 points, 8.4 assists, and 7.1 rebounds per game while notching 12 triple-doubles, according to ESPN.com.

For reference, here's the list of players who have averaged 28 points, eight assists and seven rebounds for a full season: Robertson (six times), LeBron James (once), Michael Jordan (ditto), and Westbrook, who accomplished the feat in 2014-15. Not a bad list, right?

Indeed, that 2014-15 season serves as a solid starting point. Westbrook surpassed his previous career-high in scoring by more than four points per game that year, while simultaneously posting what was then his career-best in assists as well (a mark Westbrook subsequently surpassed the next season).

The growth in both scoring and assists is key. One assumes Westbrook is going to pull an Allen Iverson and try to score on every possession. There's some truth to that; Westbrook will undoubtedly look to win the NBA's scoring title next season. He's smarter than that, though. Westbrook knows that next season is about proving everyone wrong (and trying to convince a big-name free agent to come to Oklahoma City next offseason). He'll show that he is a "true" point guard — whatever that means. There's no doubt.

Penciling in Westbrook for at least 30 points and 10 assists per game next year, then, is a safe bet — and he should break the modern NBA record for usage rate along the way. That advanced statistic simply measures how many offensive possessions end in a player's hands, either with a shot, an assist, a turnover or a trip to the free-throw line.

Unsurprisingly, Kobe Bryant currently owns the highest usage rate since the NBA-ABA merger; in 2005-06, Bryant finished 38.7 percent of the Lakers' possessions. Westbrook was right behind him in 2014-15, however, at 38.4 percent. In 2015-16, the Thunder point guard will undoubtedly top 40 percent, which is a mind-boggling proposition. Two out of every five OKC possessions — at least! — will end in Westbrook's hands.

That leaves the little issue of rebounding. The Thunder are well-stocked on the frontline; Enes Kanter and Steven Adams should gobble up all of the rebounds, allowing Westbrook to leak out in transition. On the other hand, he averaged just shy of eight rebounds per game last year. As unlikely as it is, Westbrook could theoretically grab 10 boards a night next season and average a triple-double, particularly if he's committed to chasing offensive rebounds for earth-shattering putback slams.

The other factor is playing time. Westbrook's never played 36 minutes per game, but he'll surely surpass that mark in 2016-17, since OKC won't be able to afford to rest him for more than 10 minutes per contest — and perhaps even less.

More than the numbers, though, next season should be a genuine spectacle for Westbrook and the Thunder. He'll try to erase his opponents with devastating dunks, and he won't hesitate to fire away from 30 feet if he's so inclined. For that, we thank the OKC point guard in advance.

We thought we knew how next season would play out in the NBA — an 82-game slog pointed toward inevitability, with Durant's Golden State Warriors destined to face LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers in a titanic clash of basketball's best.

That conclusion remains the most likely outcome. On Thursday, however, Russell Westbrook ensured that the 2016-17 season will be must-see television. Rather than join forces with a new team, Westbrook chose to close ranks and prepare for battle.

Where will you be when he goes thermonuclear on the basketball world?

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