National Football League

Seasons on the brink: Which 0-2 teams can still get to postseason?

Published Sep. 16, 2014 5:42 a.m. ET

Alex Marvez

The NFL enters Week 3 of the regular season having received a reality check — and not just from the off-field shaming that has overshadowed the on-field product.

Some teams with spectacular debuts — Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, Tennessee and Detroit in particular — came crashing back to earth this past Sunday. All five won by at least 13 points in Week 1; all but Seattle lost by at least 16 in Week 2.

Conversely, the sky actually wasn’t falling for those that got trounced in their openers like Dallas, New England, Green Bay and St. Louis.

Such is the danger of trying to crown the Super Bowl champion in early September.

History, though, does show the first two games are usually a good indication of what is to come.

Since the league expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, 63.2 percent of the clubs that opened 2-0 reached the playoffs. Seven squads — including early-season surprises Buffalo and Houston — fit that bill in 2014.

The past 24 seasons weren’t nearly as kind to 0-2 teams. According to the NFL, only eight percent to open with that mark have rebounded to qualify for the playoffs in that same time span.

However, all is not lost — just yet — for the basement dwellers. But there is no time to waste in New Orleans, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and New York (the Giants) if their teams are going to make a run.

Here’s a look at what has gone wrong with each winless club, starting with the three playoff teams from 2013 (Saints, Chiefs and Colts) and whether it’s realistic to expect a rebound.

• New Orleans

What has gone wrong: The defense that coordinator Rob Ryan fixed in 2013 is broken once again. Tackling was awful in a Week 1 overtime loss at Atlanta and the coverage problems in the secondary continued in last Sunday’s loss to Cleveland.

Reason for optimism: A notoriously poor road team, the Saints return to the comfy confines of the Louisiana Superdome starting with Sunday’s home opener against Minnesota.

• Indianapolis

What has gone wrong: Colts head coach Chuck Pagano lamented that his team didn’t play a 60-minute game after squandering a 14-point second-half lead in Monday night’s 30-27 loss at home to Philadelphia. The same could be said of the opener when the Colts fell behind 24-0 en route to a 31-24 loss at Denver.

Reason for optimism: Just like with the Saints and Drew Brees, don’t count out a team that has such stellar quarterbacking like the Colts with Andrew Luck.

• Kansas City

What has gone wrong: Injuries and offseason personnel departures have ravaged the roster — the offensive line and defensive front seven particularly hard-hit. Star running back Jamaal Charles and safety Eric Berry were the latest casualties last Sunday against Denver with sprained ankles. The preseason decision to release veteran kicker Ryan Succop also has backfired so far as rookie Cairo Santos has missed two of his first four field goal attempts.

Reason for optimism: Unlike Week 2 vs. the Broncos, the Chiefs will win most contests if they can control the football for 36-plus minutes and play a turnover-free game. Even with Charles hobbled, backup Knile Davis is a quality rusher.

• New York Giants

What has gone wrong: The change in offensive styles under new coordinator Ben McAdoo hasn’t corrected Eli Manning’s penchant for interceptions. Manning is tied with Minnesota’s Matt Cassel for the league lead at four. Special teams were poor in the first two games, as well.

Reason for optimism: The Giants face only one NFC East foe (Washington) over the next three weeks. That buys Tom Coughlin some time to rally what is looking like the worst team of his 11-year coaching tenure in New York.

• Oakland

What has gone wrong:: Raiders safety Charles Woodson wasn’t exaggerating when using the words “suck” and “embarrassing” to describe his team following last Sunday’s 30-14 home drubbing by Houston. Most of the veterans acquired in the offseason have yet to pay dividends, especially on defense. The offense is sputtering as Derek Carr experiences the growing pains that come with being a rookie quarterback. The Raiders have the NFL’s worst time of possession with a 23:17 average in the first two games.

Reason for optimism: Carr should improve over the course of the season, but reality already is setting in that the 2014 Raiders may not be much better than the squads that finished 4-12 in each of the past two seasons. That doesn’t bode well for head coach Dennis Allen or general manager Reggie McKenzie.

• Jacksonville

What has gone wrong: Jacksonville has allowed the most points (75) while averaging the fewest yards (227) in the league through two weeks. The Jaguars were outscored 55-0 between taking a 17-0 lead into halftime of the season opener against Philadelphia to scoring in the second quarter with the Redskins leading 21-0 on Sunday. The secondary was a mess again and the offensive line surrendered 10 sacks in the lopsided loss at Washington. An injury-riddled offense keeps losing pieces with tight end Marcedes Lewis (ankle) the latest player sidelined.

Reason for optimism: Barring a remarkable turnaround by starting quarterback Chad Henne, it’s only a matter of time before rookie Blake Bortles gets his shot. Bortles gives the Jaguars hope for the future in what is shaping up as another lost season.

• Tampa Bay

What has gone wrong: The little things have contributed to the Buccaneers losing two home contests. Late in the fourth quarter of a 20-14 loss to Carolina in the season opener, Bucs safety Dashon Goldson dropped an interception and a legitimate chance of a return for a touchdown. A red-zone interception thrown by quarterback Josh McCown, as well as having both a punt and field goal blocked by St. Louis last Sunday, spelled the difference in a 19-17 defeat. The Bucs must now try to avoid similar errors while playing the next three games on the road. Another major issue: The Bucs have razor-thin depth at cornerback and their best defensive player — defensive tackle Gerald McCoy — suffered a broken hand against the Rams.

Reason for optimism: The positive part about the way Tampa Bay lost both games is that the problems are correctable. The Bucs offense also will receive a boost when running back Doug Martin (knee) gets healthy and offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford is back to calling plays once sufficiently recovered from recent heart surgery.

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THIS WEEK

• To play or not to play: That is the ongoing question surrounding how the NFL and their respective teams are handling discipline toward Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, Carolina defensive end Greg Hardy, San Francisco defensive end Ray McDonald and ex-Baltimore running back Ray Rice.

The Vikings came across as a franchise far more interested in winning games than making a strong social stance when announcing Monday that Peterson would return to action in Week 3 against New Orleans. Peterson was deactivated last Sunday against New England after he was charged Friday with abusing his 4-year-old son earlier this year.

The Panthers also decided to deactivate Hardy last Sunday against Detroit but that was hardly a noble act. Only because of the public NFL skewering based upon the league’s weak stance toward domestic-violence incidents did Carolina bench a player who already was convicted of the crime but is waiting for another trial upon appeal. Although he returned to practice Monday, it remains uncertain whether Hardy will play Sunday night against Pittsburgh.

The 49ers continue to play McDonald even after last month’s arrest on a count of felony domestic violence against his pregnant girlfriend. I’d express outrage but I expect nothing less from a tone-deaf organization that put outside linebacker Aldon Smith on the field 48 hours after his DUI arrest in 2013.

As for Rice, the NFL Players Association is expected to file a grievance on his behalf claiming the indefinite suspension levied upon him last week by commissioner Roger Goodell constitutes double jeopardy. Rice was already banned for two games earlier in the year after being accepted into a pretrial program for domestic violence against his now-wife.

It remains surreal to wonder how different the league would be right now — and to realize that Rice would still be a member of the Ravens preparing to make his 2014 season debut against the Panthers — if TMZ.com hadn’t posted video of his elevator attack last week.

• Super Bowl XLVIII rematch: The Broncos have spent seven months stewing about the tail-kicking they received in last February’s 43-8 loss to Seattle. But it will take more than anger Sunday for Denver to attempt to avenge that loss. Better protection of quarterback Peyton Manning and improved third-down defense from that Super Bowl rout are two musts for Denver to have a shot of winning, especially in one of the NFL’s toughest road environments.

• A new NFL drug-testing policy: Yeah, we were talking about this last week, as well. But what was an apparent agreement reached between the league and NFLPA last Friday night never come to pass. Expect a deal with some welcomed and much-needed policy revisions to finally get completed as early as Tuesday, which would lead to the early return of suspended players like Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker and Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick.

UPON FURTHER REVIEW

The NFL’s failure to properly review Percy Harvin’s 51-yard scoring run in Seattle’s 30-21 loss to San Diego was yet another blemish on the league’s officiating department. There are two levels of failure on this: The side judge who didn’t see Harvin step out of bounds and the off-field officials responsible for insuring that every touchdown is on the level. The NFL admitted its mistake by saying the touchdown was incorrectly confirmed and the play should have been reviewed. The only solace for San Diego is that the touchdown didn’t affect the game’s final outcome.

HOT SEAT

The resumes of Pittsburgh’s Dick LeBeau and Green Bay’s Dom Capers speak for themselves, but the struggles of their defenses raise the question about whether the zone-blitz concepts used by both coordinators have outlived their effectiveness. The Steelers and Packers have each registered a modest three sacks in the first two games. As the Steelers were getting picked apart by Baltimore’s Joe Flacco last Thursday night, CBS analyst Phil Simms said he believes experienced passers have gotten wise to the different zone-blitz looks — both faked and actualized linebacker rushes — that once gave quarterbacks fits. Regardless of whether that’s truly the case, Green Bay and Pittsburgh both need better play than what they’ve gotten. The 60 points surrendered by Green Bay’s defense is tied with New York for the NFL’s fourth-highest total. The Steelers haven’t registered an interception, forced fumble or fumble recovery.

NUMBERS TO NOTE

Anyone who only watched New England vs. Minnesota and Chicago vs. San Francisco might think the NFL set a new single-week penalty record. The Patriots and Vikings combined for 22 infractions, with New England committing 15 for 163 yards but still winning by a 30-7 margin. The Bears-49ers tilt featured a staggering 26 fouls. But those two contests were outliers. An NFL spokesman told FOX Sports that there was an average of 13.8 accepted penalties through the Sunday contests, which was “on par” with the league’s recent regular-season totals.

THURSDAY NIGHT PICK

Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 16. The Bucs can run the football with Bobby Rainey, whose 144 rushing yards against the Rams last weekend were the second-most of his young career — surpassed only by his 163 last season against . . . Atlanta. The Falcons, though, have too much offensive firepower and truly enjoy a home-field advantage playing inside the Georgia Dome (Rainey’s career day came at Tampa Bay).