Philadelphia Eagles

Why Eagles fans shouldn't get too excited about Carson Wentz

Published Nov. 15, 2016 2:18 p.m. ET

Chris Chase

Judging by commentary on television and Twitter, there's one of two ways to react to Carson Wentz's successful NFL debut:

1. The Philadelphia Eagles rookie is bound for the Hall of Fame after going 22-for-37 for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his opener, and this so-called rebuilding year in Philadelphia is going to be anything but that, with Wentz possibly leading Philly to a playoff berth and maybe even -- no, it's not possible, is it? -- a Super Bowl run.

There's not much in between. What's truth? What's fiction? And what's delusion?

There's no arguing this: Wentz had the type of NFL debut kids dream about when they're out back slinging around the football before bedtime. The No. 2 pick in April's draft led Philly to a decisive victory in his opening game, earning a passer rating of 101.0 and instantly making people forget that both Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel had been expected to start ahead of Wentz as recently as two weeks ago.

Since 1998 (the first year there's searchable data via pro-football-reference.com), there have been 26 quarterbacks who started and threw 15 or more passes in Week 1 of their rookie season. Wentz's debut, by QB rating, isn't in the top five but is clearly one of the best Week 1 rookie games in two decades. (He was just the ninth of the 26 to lead his team to a win.)

Marcus Mariota had the best game by the numbers, with a 13-for-15, 209-yard, four-TD performance in a 2015 blowout win over another rookie, Jameis Winston. Those numbers were good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The jury is still out on Mariota, of course. You can't assign a label to his career yet and won't be able to for a couple of years. But what about others?

The second-best game number-wise -- and you could argue it was the best given the opponent and circumstances -- was Robert Griffin III's debut for the 2012 Redskins. He he went 19-for-26 for 320 yards and two TDs in a shocking 40-32 road win over a Saints team many picked to win the NFC South. If you watched Wentz on Sunday, you saw RG3 scuffling for the Browns and thus need no update on how his career is progressing just four years after that magical afternoon.

Cam Newton had a fine debut, but so did EJ Manuel. Russell Wilson was okay -- neither promising nor poor -- but not as good as Geno Smith. Chris Weinke was solid, Joe Flacco was not.

And then there are the top most-hyped rookie quarterbacks of the last 20 years. Both started for the Colts, one in 1998 and the other 14 years later. They put up remarkably similar lackluster numbers, with both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck throwing for one TD and three interceptions with barely more than a 50 percent completion rate and a QB rating in the 50s -- worse than Bradford had in his debut. And Manning's numbers on that September day in '98 weren't any better than those of the quarterback picked right after him: Leaf.

This is unimportant. There will be far too much meaning assigned to this week's performances by non-established quarterbacks (not just rookies) such as Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins even though trying to do so is as frivolous as a preseason game and trying to do it for a rookie is even worse.

As shown above, there's no correlation between a successful first game and performances in games two to 150. But just because the greatest quarterback in history (Peyton) had a rough debut and the next-ex Browns quarterback (RG3) was spectacular doesn't mean we can't pull something away from Wentz's debut.

He was excellent. He stood tall in the pocket. He made fearless throws and put 'em on a dime. He audibled like a 12-year veteran, not a guy who completed only 12 passes in the preseason. But it's true that he did it against the Cleveland Browns, a team that was ranked 27th in defense last year and is expected to be even worse this year. He was able to pick apart a defense that was on the field for almost 40 minutes (by far the most of any team in the NFL this week) and saw its offense put together eight drives of four plays or less. EIGHT!

Those are the facts. But football fans only care about facts when it supports their point or emboldens their hopes, which is why, in the seven days before Wentz starts again, you're going to hear people touting him for Rookie of the Year, openly wondering whether he'll make the Pro Bowl and asking whether Los Angeles and Cleveland passing on him will be the NFL equivalent of the Blazers taking Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan.. Then you'll have another subset of people saying he stinks.

Neither is the right reaction to Carson Wentz's Week 1. He was good against a bad team -- good enough to get a win and come back to try it again in Week 2.