College coaches with much to gain, or lose, as season winds down
As the end of February approaches and the NCAA Tournament becomes increasingly close, some coaches have put their programs in favorable positions while others have teetered toward the hot seat.
Which coaches have a chance to raise their profiles as we head into the final couple weeks of the regular season?
And who could use a strong finish to remove a little heat from under their chairs?
Our college basketball writers Andy Katz, John Fanta and Michael Cohen examine the situation across college basketball and make their picks for which coaches are in a dicey position, which are looking sharp heading into March, and which can become top candidates in the next hiring cycle.
Who is a coach on the hot seat who needs a strong finish to the regular season in order to cool things off?
John Fanta: Brad Brownell, Clemson
In 13 seasons at the helm, Brownell has totaled two NCAA Tournament victories. It looked like the 54-year-old was going to put talk about his job being at stake to bed when Clemson started ACC play 7-0, but even at 19-8 the Tigers find themselves on the outside looking in at the moment. Why? An absolutely devastating trio of Quadrant 4 losses, the most recent one coming this past weekend in a 10-point defeat to bottom-feeder Louisville, which has just four wins this season.
I’ve been told that second-year athletic director Graham Neff is considering making a change if the Tigers do in fact miss the NCAA Tournament for a ninth time in 11 seasons. With how soft the bubble is this season, Clemson could still make a late push to be considered, but it will be difficult. But by the same token, a potential 23-win ACC team — between work done in the remainder of the regular season and the conference tournament — should be up for discussion.
That said, here’s the Tigers' remaining schedule:
Going 3-1 is doable and likely needs to happen ahead of the NCAA Tournament, meaning the Tigers will need to get a marquee road win to try to negate some of the recent major blows to the résumé.
Andy Katz: Jim Boeheim, Syracuse
I don’t see it as my role to fire and hire coaches. But I will say this: I won’t be surprised if we see a change at Syracuse. It should be noted that a couple of weeks ago, Jim Boeheim said he will "probably" be back next season. He also said: "I know it's my choice. I can do whatever I want. I just don't know for sure."
If he doesn’t retire this offseason, then it’s hard to see the Hall of Fame coach continuing the tenure beyond 2024. The Orange are going to miss the NCAA Tournament unless they win the ACC tournament. The timing seems right to pass the Orange on to Adrian Autry, who is the most likely successor on the staff. We’re in an era in which change is likely to continue in the ACC at some point in the near future at Miami (Jim Larrañaga) and Florida State (Leonard Hamilton), as well. By the way, the most intriguing opening in the country, let alone the ACC, is at Notre Dame. That hire should create a domino effect.
Michael Cohen: Jerry Stackhouse, Vanderbilt
It might seem a little strange to select a coach whose team has won five consecutive games to climb to 8-6 in the Southeastern Conference, which is good enough for sixth place ahead of Wednesday’s action. But a miniature run in the last two weeks isn’t enough to shroud an underwhelming performance from Stackhouse since he arrived in Nashville in 2019. The Commodores are on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive year, while finishing no better than 11th in the SEC during Stackhouse’s first three seasons.
Of particular concern is the presence of a new athletic director, Candice Storey Lee, who had yet to enter her current role when the Commodores plucked Stackhouse away from the Memphis Grizzlies, where he was an assistant coach from 2018-19. The person who hired Stackhouse, former athletic director Malcolm Turner, resigned in 2020, less than a year after bringing the highly touted basketball coach to Vanderbilt. It’s not unreasonable to think Lee might opt to wipe the slate clean and hire someone of her choosing.
Stackhouse was among a wave of college basketball hires from the last decade that targeted former players with strong careers in the NBA, a list that includes the likes of Penny Hardaway at Memphis, Juwan Howard at Michigan, Patrick Ewing at Georgetown, Mo Williams at Jackson State, Rod Strickland at LIU, Aaron McKie at Temple and Damon Stoudamire at Pacific. But nearly all of those coaches have underwhelmed at best and flopped at worst. The Commodores need a few more wins if Stackhouse wants to stick around next season.
Who is a coach who has his team peaking at just the right time and is primed to make some noise in March?
John: Chris Collins, Northwestern!
I added the exclamation point because this is as large of a surprise as any in college basketball. The Wildcats were picked second-to-last in the Big Ten preseason poll. Pundits pegged it as a year when Collins, who led the program to its only NCAA Tournament appearance in program history in 2017, had to respond from five consecutive losing seasons since that Big Dance appearance and show significant strides of improvement.
And respond, they have. The Wildcats are well on their way to the NCAA Tournament while occupying second place in the conference with an 11-5 league record. Collins has a roster rooted in experience, with leading scorers Boo Buie and Chase Audige combining for 32 points per game and really taking ownership of this team from the start. Buie has made several plays in closing time for Northwestern along the way, including a game-winner against Indiana last week to take over second place in the Big Ten.
Audige is the man who sets the tone defensively and is regarded as one of the best in the conference on that end of the floor.
Winning five straight games and getting it done with one of the best defenses in the country — No. 21 in KenPom, third in B1G in scoring defense at 61.9 PPG — the Wildcats are clicking on all cylinders as March looms. More than anything, they’re playing with the best trait you can have this time of year: confidence.
Michael: Jim Larrañaga, Miami
The coach best known for his magical run to the Final Four with George Mason in 2006 is now the architect of one of the better, most consistent programs during a downtrodden era in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Hurricanes reached the NCAA Tournament just twice in the 11 years following former head coach Leonard Hamilton’s departure in 2000, but Larrañaga has hauled them back into the national spotlight. He’s cobbled together eight 20-win seasons since taking the job in 2011 and will bring Miami to the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time next month on the heels of an Elite Eight appearance last year.
After bringing back two of his top-four scorers from last season, Larrañaga enhanced his roster with two excellent additions through the transfer portal. Bruising forward Norchad Omier (6-foot-7, 248 pounds) is averaging 13.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per game after two standout years at Arkansas State, where he poured in 17.9 PPG as a sophomore. And sharpshooting guard Nijel Pack (6-foot, 184 pounds) is averaging 13.5 PPG while hitting 41.8% of his 3-pointers on 158 attempts to rank ninth in the country among players from power conferences. With Omier and Pack in tow, the Hurricanes now have four players scoring in double figures this season.
Larrañaga’s team also appears to be getting hot at the right time with six consecutive wins ahead of Tuesday’s trip to Virginia Tech. Miami has beaten Clemson (road), Duke (home) and North Carolina (road) during that stretch to climb to No. 31 in both KenPom and the NCAA NET rankings after checking in at No. 13 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Remaining games against Virginia Tech, Florida State and Pittsburgh are all winnable entering the ACC Tournament.
Andy: Shaka Smart, Marquette
At his previous stop at Texas, Smart’s final NCAA Tournament appearance came to a stunning end with a loss to Abilene Christian. Now in his second season at Marquette, his Golden Eagles are one of the season's surprise teams and have a chance to go on a deep run. This team has a lead guard in Tyler Kolek, has scorers and finishers in Kam Jones and David Joplin, and has bigs Oso Ighordaro and Olivier Maxence-Prosper who can finish around the basket.
This team defends, and plays with purpose and passion. Smart can lead the Golden Eagles to the Sweet 16 and continue to show that the Texas loss was more of an aberration than the norm on his résumé. Smart should be the Big East coach of the year. And he’s got a great shot to lead the Golden Eagles to the Big East title.
Who is a coach who has a chance to make a big impression ahead of the next hiring cycle?
Michael: Brian Dutcher, San Diego State
Any discussion about what Dutcher has done over the last five years at San Diego State — five straight 20-win seasons, four trips to the NCAA Tournament — has to begin with the caliber of program he inherited from former colleague and mentor Steve Fisher, who retired following the 2017 season. Fisher won at least 20 games in 11 consecutive seasons from 2006-16 and brought the Aztecs to the NCAA Tournament seven times during that span. He won 34 games in 2011 to earn Naismith College Coach of the Year honors and won 31 games in 2014. The cupboard was far from bare when Dutcher, who worked as Fisher’s assistant for more than 25 years at Michigan and San Diego State, took over.
But Dutcher improved the Aztecs from 22 wins and 21 wins in his first two seasons, respectively, to 30 wins in his third year when the NCAA Tournament was canceled during the pandemic. So far this season, Dutcher has guided San Diego State to an 18-5 record and a No. 22 ranking in the national polls. His team is No. 17 in both KenPom and the NCAA NET rankings with an 8-5 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents combined. The Aztecs have lost just twice since mid-December.
What makes Dutcher an interesting candidate for bigger jobs is his ties to the Midwest. His father, Jim Dutcher, was the head coach at Eastern Michigan (1966-72) and Minnesota (1975-86) with a stint as an assistant at Michigan (1972-75) in between. Dutcher himself graduated from Minnesota and has experience at both Illinois (graduate assistant from 1983-85) and Michigan (associate head coach from 1989-98). It might be time for larger schools to give him a look.
Andy: Rodney Terry, Texas
Terry is the interim coach at Texas. He should be the full-time coach. Terry took over when Chris Beard was fired after his arrest on assault charges against his fiancée (charges have since been dismissed, but the police report was still damning and the conduct was more than enough to warrant a dismissal).
I don’t understand why Chris Del Conte hasn’t made this move yet. Terry is a top-15 finalist for the Naismith Coach of the Year award. How can he not get the job? He kept together a team that could have easily splintered. Texas was a 2-seed in the NCAA men’s basketball selection committee’s top 16 reveal Saturday. The Longhorns are tied with Kansas through Monday’s games in the loss column in the Big 12. He has done a tremendous job keeping Texas in the chase, and he’s done it without any drama. Terry has the respect of his players, staff and peers. He is a former head coach and a former assistant at Texas. The Longhorns need some consistency. They don’t need to waste time trying to grab a headline name they won’t get. Just end the speculation and give him the job. He has earned it.
John: Dusty May, Florida Atlantic
No mid-major coach in college basketball has risen faster this season than May.
At 24-3, the Owls have made national headlines in a historic season down in Boca Raton. FAU cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history in January, winning 20 consecutive games from Nov. 14 to Feb. 1. A former Indiana men’s basketball manager from 1996-2000 under Bob Knight, May got his start in Bloomington because he mowed the lawn for Hoosiers team doctor Larry Rink, who connected him to the IU staff.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the former Florida assistant shocked the Gators in Gainesville to start the program’s record-breaking streak. Florida coach Mike White’s brother, Brian, is the athletic director at FAU and had a good source of recommendation when he was making the hire.
In his fifth year at FAU, May took over a program that only had winning seasons in its 25-year history and was on a streak of seven consecutive losing campaigns. All the 46-year-old has done is go 90-59 and shift the Owls, and a budding fanbase, from being an afterthought to dreaming of the school’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002, and second all-time.
The interesting factor with FAU is that it is set up to win a game, if not two, in the NCAA Tournament. With a NET ranking of 22, a combined five Quad 1/2 wins and no major blemishes, FAU currently has a 10-seed in Mike DeCourcy's latest projections. Sure, it would mean a second-round upset potentially, but crazier things have happened. With some power conference leftovers from the transfer portal as well as some in-state talent, May has built a roster with the right blend, one that can be dangerous offensively with an average of 10 made 3s per game.
He’s going to be on the radar for power conference openings, especially in a climate where turnover is rapid in the coaching ranks and someone like May, who’s made something from nothing, is putting up history.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
Read more:
- WIth Marquette, Shaka Smart is ready to be a threat in March
- College basketball's top 16: Who will stay there, who can get in?
- Houston back at No. 1 in AP Top 25 for third time this season
- College basketball highlights: Michigan beats Michigan State in emotional game
- Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey lead defensive player of the year tiers
