College Football

College football odds: Why Michigan over Penn State is your best bet this weekend (and more)

Updated Nov. 11, 2021 3:27 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Let's call this appetizer weekend in college football because next week, oh boy, the schedule is loaded. From Clemson's last stand to three pivotal Top 25 matchups that will impact the playoff race, it's OK to get excited about next week. But first, the calm before the storm. 

This week I went with four favorites, and it would have been more (hello, Oklahoma), but backing all favorites is no way to be a successful gambler.

The underdog I like this week is Washington State, a two-touchdown road dog. Please take a look at who Oregon has on deck and get back to me. 

Let's stuff our pockets with money on these appetizers, with odds via FOX Bet.

Michigan (Pick 'em at FOX Bet) at Penn State 

There have been interesting line movements on both the total and side in this game. The total has come crashing down from 52.5 to 48.5. Michigan was installed as a small favorite, but the game is now a pick 'em. 

James Franklin has gotten the better of Jim Harbaugh — winning three of the last four meetings — including last year's 27-17 triumph, even though it was a three-point game with 10 minutes left. 

Penn State won on the ground last year (254 rushing yards, 36 minutes time of possession), but it'll try to win through the air this year with a healthy Sean Clifford at quarterback and future NFL receiver Jahan Dotson (242 receiving yards last week). 

Michigan is 7-2 against the spread (ATS), but injuries have clouded the handicap, with second-leading rusher Blake Corum (10 TDs) going down last week. His status is unknown for this game. 

QB Cade McNamara also left the win over Indiana due to an undisclosed injury. It's unclear if he'll start and how much he'll throw if he does play. The quarterback suffered a shoulder injury against Penn State last year, too. 

If Harbaugh wants to get crafty, he'll use freshman QB J.J. McCarthy, who has come in and thrown touchdowns against Wisconsin and Michigan State. 

Harbaugh's ability to catch Penn State off guard has me leaning toward the Wolverines here, and I'd give a long, hard look at the under as well.

PICK: Michigan (Pick 'em at FOX Bet) to win straight up

Cincinnati (-23 at FOX Bet) at South Florida 

I'm going back to the Bearcat well after last week's disappointing showing when I was on Cincinnati against Tulsa. Unfortunately for us, they were severely underwhelming. Winning by eight when favored by more than three TDs didn't win them any respect in the markets. As such, I'll fade the narrative. 

The Bearcats inched up to No. 5 in the Playoff Rankings, and now they face an awful USF team that is somehow taking money. The line has come down from 24. Do people realize they're backing a team that has one win this season against FBS competition? The win was over Temple was overrated — the fifth-worst team in the country, according to FPI. And USF ranks 107th out of 130. No thanks.

Perhaps people are noticing that Cincinnati hosts 7-2 SMU next week in its final test of the season. Look-ahead spots are real in college football.

Either way, I'm rolling with the Bearcats in this spot.

PICK: Cincinnati (-23 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 23 points

Texas A&M (-2.5 at FOX Bet) at Ole Miss 

This game features a tricky, curious line. It's almost as if someone knows something about the health of potential No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. 

He hasn't been the same player since Lane Kiffin ran him into the ground — literally — against Tennessee (30 carries, 195 yards). It was as if Lane really wanted to beat his former team because Corral had only carried the ball more than 15 times twice in his four-year career. The 30 rushes Corral had in that game seem to have broken him. Corral's passing numbers were way down against LSU and Auburn, and his ankle injury, combined with injuries on the OL and WR, have mounted. This isn't the same dynamic offense we saw against Louisville and Arkansas. 

Now Ole Miss faces a defense that has only improved since the upset over Alabama, culminating with holding Auburn to 226 yards and just three points last week. 

The Aggies defense — led by potential top-10 pick DeMarvin Leal (8.5 TFL 5.5 sacks) — ranks seventh nationally, allowing just 4.59 yards per play.

This line could touch three, at which point there might be value on the home dog, especially playing at night in Oxford. But at -2.5, give me the Aggies.

PICK: Texas A&M (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

TCU at Oklahoma State (-13 at FOX Bet)

An ugly year for TCU — five losses in six games, the best coach in school history dusted — was flipped on its head last week with a stunning 30-28 win over a 7-1 Baylor team with Big 12 title aspirations. 

Freshman quarterback Chandler Morris got everyone excited with a 461-yard, two-touchdown performance in the win. They're probably still partying in Fort Worth. Will there be a carryover? No. 

Oklahoma State has continued to impress, with its lone loss coming at Iowa State. Since then, the team has outscored Kansas and West Virginia by a combined 79-6. 

Good teams smash bad teams, and the Cowboys defense will carry them into the discussion for the College Football Playoff if they can get some chaos. Fine, a lot of chaos, plus a win over Oklahoma and winning the Big 12 Championship Game. But, you get my point.

The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS, one of the best marks in the country. On the flip side, TCU is just 2-6-1 ATS.

This line has jumped from 11 to 13, and it's a take up to 14.

PICK: Oklahoma State (-13 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 13 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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College Football

Michigan Wolverines

Penn State Nittany Lions

Texas A&M Aggies

Ole Miss Rebels

TCU Horned Frogs

Oklahoma State Cowboys

CFB - Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions - 11/13/2021

CFB - Cincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida Bulls - 11/12/2021

CFB - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Ole Miss Rebels - 11/14/2021

CFB - TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 11/14/2021

Jason McIntyre