College Football

How to bet college football Week 0

Updated Aug. 28, 2021 12:17 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Finally, the college football season is here.

Five FBS games will be played this Saturday in college football Week 0, and sports bettors are loading up their accounts across the country.

I’m typically not somebody that circles a lot of games on a college football card, so if you’re looking for a play on every game this weekend, you’ve come to the wrong place. I’ve always believed that handicapping is about isolating the games you really, really like and sticking with those. And this week, there's one game that sticks out to me.

Off we go!

The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Illinois Fighting Illini open up the season Saturday in beautiful Champaign, Illinois, at 1 pm ET. Nebraska opened as a 7.5-point road favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 55.

FOX Bet was dealing Nebraska as a 7-point favorite and the total scoring over/under for the game at 55. Now, just hours before kickoff, those numbers are down to Nebraska -6.5, with a total scoring over/under of 53.

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One professional bettor I spoke with made a position on the Illini +7.5, and he’s bullish that they can hang around ‘til the very end. I wouldn’t necessarily fight him on that angle; I’m just a little nervous about the Illini being too trendy. Over 70% of betting tickets are on Illinois at multiple sportsbooks, and that makes me squeamish.

I hate being on the trendy underdog, and that’s exactly what Bret Bielema’s team is shaping up to be at this point in time. There were also a couple of 6.5-point spreads that popped up late Wednesday night, and those numbers were immediately bet back to -7. So there was respected resistance on Nebraska once the line crossed through the most key number in football.

The point total has my full attention, though, and I’m digging "Under" 55. This might sound insane to you given the two teams combined to score 64, 80 and 89 points in their last three meetings. But I like to leave the past in the past and worry about the present and future.

(UPDATE: It seems like we were on the right side, given the aforementioned movement on this line to 53 at FOX Bet and 52 at some books. That's a lot of movement, and it changes our calculus. If you're reading this story just before kickoff, be careful. Keep that in mind.)

The Cornhuskers return 10 defensive starters on a unit that was really outmatched early in the season. They came together and progressed nicely down the stretch, and they’ll be much better equipped to handle an Illinois offense that doesn’t have any true home-run hitters.

Nebraska will play a ton of nickel this season, but the defensive line – anchored by Ben Stille (6-5, 295) and Damion Daniels (6-3, 335) – will surprise some people this year.

On the flip side, Illinois’ defense left a lot to be desired last season and Bielema has made it a priority down I-57 to shore up that side of the ball. Former head coach Lovie Smith’s players lacked effort and urgency in Smith’s lame-duck season and Illinois gave up 35 points per game. Toughness in the trenches has been a theme echoed all summer long in camp.

Look for the Illini to bring pressure at Huskers quarterback Adrian Martinez, too.

Bielema clubs historically love to run the rock and control the clock while putting the quarterback in a position to succeed. Brandon Peters is OK, but he’s far from special and he’s not the type of cat to force the issue.

I’ve got this final score in the 27-21 range due to two defenses that have a whole lot to prove coming off disappointing 2020 campaigns.

How to bet College Football Week 0: Nebraska vs. Illinois "Under" 55 total points (-118, $10 bet to win $18.47 total).

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.