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MLB awards update: Favorites, contenders, dark horses for MVP, Cy Young, ROY
Have the MVP awards in the American and National League already been locked up? Has anyone pulled away in the Cy Young races? Which rookies are having the best seasons?
With about 40 games remaining, these are the contenders for the major awards in both leagues:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP
The Favorite: Shohei Ohtani
It's still not complicated. The guy with an OPS tickling 1.100, 41 dingers and 3.17 ERA in 22 starts is more valuable than anybody else in baseball. A differing opinion qualifies you as a dunce, a charlatan, a hater, or a misfiring hot-take geyser. Yes, Anaheim's all-in approach at the deadline immediately imploded into catastrophe, with the Angels sitting seven back in the AL wild card heading into Tuesday, but that ain't on Shohei's shoulders. In the 12 games since the deadline, Ohtani has a .944 OPS. Give the man his crown and then give him half a billion dollars.
Everybody Else: Adley Rutschman, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Corey Seager
Rutschman is the best hitter and the defensive captain on the team with the best record in the American League. After a 15th-place MVP finish last season, Tucker has stopped striking out without sacrificing any pop (.896 OPS with the fifth-lowest K rate in the AL). Giving a first baseman with just 16 homers high-level MVP votes feels odd, but Díaz is leading the AL in batting average and is sixth in slugging percentage. Also, go peep his triceps.
Injuries have limited Seager to just 75 games, but on a rate basis, he's been the American League's co-best hitter alongside Ohtani with an adjusted OPS 83% better than league average. A healthy Seager would have been the clear runner-up.
Shohei Ohtani leads MVP Race, but Astros' Kyle Tucker joins top five
Cy Young
The Favorite: Gerrit Cole
There are two main ways to evaluate pitchers: output and outcome. Essentially, what a pitcher does and what happens to them. Even over the course of 162 games, there are so many factors hurlers cannot control, and so, luck and fortune play a major part of the final stat line. But typically, hardware is not secured by expected statistics. The "easiest" way to win a Cy is to rack up a ton of innings and post a low ERA.
Enter, Gerrit Cole. The Yankees ace leads the American League in innings (156 1/3) and is second in ERA (2.76) behind Nathan Eovaldi. Things are bleak in the Bronx right now, so Cole is fighting against it from a narrative perspective (although the fact he has yet to win a Cy is a big narrative boost). His key numbers are so good, they'll likely speak for themselves. The race is still close enough that Cole could biff it down the stretch, but I'd expect one of the best pitchers of his generation to capture his first Cy.
The Contenders: Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray, Pablo López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Félix Bautista
Gausman has the AL's highest fWAR (4.4) and highest K rate among starters (11.85 per nine). He's been remarkably consistent, too, with his month-by-month numbers incredibly similar. I think with a strong last month and a half, the Jays ace has a real shot to challenge Cole.
The Twins offense has been swinging lead lumber all season, but their superb pitching has kept them comfortably atop the soft AL Central. It's been an awesome bounce-back campaign for Gray (3.04 ERA/4.0 fWAR in 24 starts) after a few years of injury and inconsistency. Losing Luis Arráez has proven difficult for Minnesota's anemic lineup, but López has held up his end of the swap with a 10.97 K/9 in 24 starts (his 3.66 ERA is a bit unlucky, but also likely too high to win the Cy).
Kirby hasn't walked a batter since Babe Ruth died (0.87 BB/9) and his hot July/August (2.84 ERA in 8 starts) has helped catapult Seattle back into the wild-card picture. Besides his no-hitter on Aug. 1st, Valdez has been shaky since the end of June with a 5.65 ERA in his last seven starts including the no-no. He's still in the mix because his full season numbers are strong.
It's nearly impossible for relievers to win the Cy Young nowadays, but Bautista is forcing the issue at least a little bit. His 17.3 K/9 would be the highest in baseball history for a pitcher with at least 60 innings. He's allowed just 10 runs in 56 1/3 frames and has a league-leading 31 saves for the AL-best Orioles. If Bautista finishes the season with 40 saves, 70 innings and the highest strikeout rate ever, he'll get a ton of votes.
Rookie of the Year
The Favorite: Gunnar Henderson
After an overly passive April, Henderson exploded when the weather warmed, posting an .848 OPS from May through July. He's cooled off in August, but the Orioles infielder remains one of the most important pieces in that lineup. The 22-year-old has also been an adequate defender at short, as he's continued to soak up more time there while Jorge Mateo struggles at the dish.
The Contenders: Josh Jung, Edouard Julien, Luke Raley, Masataka Yoshida, Tanner Bibee, JP France
Jung was right up there with Henderson — both statistically and narratively — until he fractured his thumb last week. That's a bummer because Jung had been so good at the plate for the ascendent Rangers. Julien might end up with even fewer games played than Jung, but the Twins rookie has been outrageously good offensively (.281/.378/.479) for a lineup that desperately needs it.
Raley has really tailed off since the All-Star break, but the 28-year-old still leads AL Rookies in a number of offensive categories. Yoshida hasn't maintained the home run power he showed in the first few months, but a .300 average/.824 OPS is a great showing for a Japanese rookie making the jump. Bibee has kept the Guardians' rotation from completely disintegrating, and his 2.90 ERA in his first 19 career starts is incredibly impressive.
— Jake Mintz
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP
The Favorite: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Acuña leads the majors in runs, stolen bases and on-base percentage, the last stat a reflection of how remarkably patient he has been. He's striking out half as much as he did in any previous season while still hitting the ball as hard as ever. No one has ever logged 30 homers and 60 stolen bases in a season, and Acuña is on pace for an unprecedented 30/75 year. Still, given what the two players atop the Dodgers' lineup are doing, wrapping up an MVP award is not quite the sure thing it might have once seemed.
The Contenders: Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Mookie Betts
If the winner of this award isn't a Dodger or Brave, something bonkers happened down the stretch.
In terms of the value a player brings, it's hard to argue against Betts. The six-time Gold Glove Award winner in right field has demonstrated his infield skills this year, filling in admirably on occasion at second base and shortstop while illustrating his best offensive year since his 2018 MVP season.
Freeman is in the midst of the best full season of his illustrious career. Along with a .339 batting average, he has 43 doubles — eight more than the next closest player — and could become the first player with 60 doubles in a season since 1936. Olson, meanwhile, leads the NL in homers, RBIs and slugging percentage and just leapfrogged Freeman for the highest OPS in the league.
The Dark Horses: Cody Bellinger, Juan Soto, Luis Arráez, Ha-Seong Kim, Corbin Carroll
What a turnaround for Bellinger, who completely changed his offensive profile to fuel his resurgence. He has the lowest strikeout and whiff rates of his career, and while that has come with fewer barrels, it's a fine tradeoff. His .328 batting average is more than 100 points higher than it was either of the past two seasons and ranks fifth overall in the majors.
Of course, the leader in that category is still Arráez, though the chase for .400 has cooled down considerably. Still, if either Bellinger or Arráez can carry their respective teams to the playoffs, they'll at least be part of the MVP conversation. The same goes for the other three players on this list, all of whom are providing serious value to clubs currently just outside the playoff picture.
Cy Young
The Co-Favorites: Blake Snell, Zac Gallen
This contest is still wide open, even beyond the two players listed above. Snell, who leads the NL with a 2.63 ERA, and Gallen, who has been a favorite for the award all year, are among the front-runners.
After a slow start, Snell went on a tear with a 1.16 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 85 innings since May 25. The only thing holding him back is his elevated walk total; he has allowed more free passes than any pitcher in baseball, which has limited his innings compared to other Cy Young contenders. Gallen is the opposite. The NL All-Star Game starter has a sterling 5.2% walk rate and ranks in the NL top three basically across the board, including ERA, WHIP, games started, innings pitched and strikeouts.
The Contenders: Logan Webb, Spencer Strider, Justin Steele
You could put Webb — who has the same 1.07 WHIP as Gallen — right alongside the aforementioned co-favorites, and it would be totally justified. By Baseball-Reference's version of WAR, Webb has been the NL's most valuable pitcher this year (3.9).
Strider is on another stratosphere when it comes to his strikeout rate. While his 3.75 ERA is elevated compared to last year, he has totaled 34 more strikeouts than the next closest MLB pitcher and is on pace to become the first in history to average at least 14 strikeouts per nine innings in at least 150 innings of work. Steele, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 22 starts.
The Dark Horses: Zack Wheeler, Clayton Kershaw, Corbin Burnes, Jesús Luzardo
In FanGraphs' version of WAR, Wheeler is tied with Gallen for the best mark among NL pitchers. He's sporting the lowest walk rate of his career and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the NL, and his expected ERA (3.32) is much lower than his actual mark (3.75).
For Kershaw, it's all about health. His 2.51 ERA would be the best mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. Burnes didn't look like his usual self for much of the year, but he has a 2.66 ERA since the start of July while holding opponents to a .145 batting average in that time.
Rookie of the Year
The Favorite: Corbin Carroll
While Carroll's production has slowed over the past few weeks, he's still one of the best players in baseball this season, regardless of age. Carroll has been worth more wins (4.1 WAR) than any rookie and leads all NL rookies in runs, stolen bases and slugging percentage, providing a view of the different skill sets he brings to the D-backs. If they find a way into the playoffs, his production will have played a vital role.
The Contenders: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, James Outman, Kodai Senga, Francisco Alvarez
McLain's steadiness at 24 years old is remarkable. He leads all NL rookies in batting average (.297), on-base percentage (.361) and OPS (.866) and hasn't gone more than three straight games without a hit. Like McLain, De La Cruz would be getting more Rookie of the Year consideration if not for a late arrival. After taking the league by storm, the recent top overall prospect has looked the part with 10 homers, 10 doubles, four triples and 18 steals in just 58 games.
Outman's rookie year hit a roadblock after winning April Rookie of the Month honors, but he has lowered his strikeout rate and found his way again with a .979 OPS in the season's second half. The play of rookies Senga (3.30 ERA) and Álvarez (21 homers) have been among the only positive stories in a disappointing Mets season. Senga has totaled nearly twice as many strikeouts as the next closest rookie.
The Dark Horses: Spencer Steer, Andrew Abbott, Patrick Bailey, Eury Pérez, Bobby Miller
Want to know how the Reds remain in the playoff hunt? Having four legit ROY competitors is a start. Steer leads all NL rookies in hits, doubles and RBIs, while Abbott has the lowest ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average among qualified NL rookie starters after beginning his career with a 1.21 ERA through his first six starts.
Bailey already looks like one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and his clutch hitting has added an extra spark for the Giants. A midseason rest was a major deterrent in Pérez's push for the top rookie honor. The 20-year-old logged a 2.36 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 53.1 innings through his first 11 starts before getting a break. He's back up now, but neither he nor the Marlins have looked quite the same since he was shut down.
— Rowan Kavner
Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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