MLB Playoffs 2021: How the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Braves can win the World Series
By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer
I’ll be honest: When the MLB postseason begins, I’m not really thinking about the World Series.
I'm just excited to watch the 10 best teams compete in a high-stakes environment in which every pitch carries infinitely more weight than the hundreds of thousands we casually consume over the course of the regular season.
Now, it’s different. The League Championship Series are here, which means it starts to dawn on me: One of these four teams is going to win the World Series. I can start imagining what the celebrations could look like in each city and which players will party the hardest.
This year, it’s not all that difficult to picture: Our two series are rematches of recent championship series (AL in 2018, NL in 2020), and we’ve seen three of these four teams raise the trophy in the past five years. These are going to be two heavyweight fights between four of baseball’s premier franchises, ones that are plenty comfortable in the October spotlight.
To preview this penultimate round, I’ve broken each team down as such:
1. How much pressure is on them to win? What are the expectations on this team heading into this final stretch? What will be the fallout if they win or lose?
2. Who needs a ring? Which players on the team have yet to win a World Series and would be especially cool to see lift the trophy?
3. Why they’ll win: What needs to happen for this team to advance to the Fall Classic.
4. Why they’ll lose: What is the most likely downfall for this team if they are to lose.
Let's go.
How badly do they need to win?
With the Rays cruising to a division title, the Blue Jays taking a huge step forward and the perpetual Yankees drama, the Red Sox flew decently far under the radar despite being good all season.
Just three years removed from their most recent title, with many of the same pieces still in place, it’s hard to say the Red Sox have nearly as much urgency to win a title as the three other LCS teams.
So what are the stakes? What would a World Series title for the 2021 Red Sox mean? This has a lot to do with GM Chaim Bloom, whose tenure began by making one of the most unpopular trades in baseball history (likely not of his own accord) and then immediately having a terrible season in 2020 that had people questioning what direction this organization was going post-Mookie.
Well, that didn’t take long, now did it? There’s no version of this story that should include the notion "trading Mookie was actually good," but I do think a lot would be made of Bloom’s ability to keep this organization afloat. Obviously, a lot of the key pieces were still in place from the ‘18 team, but the additions in the middle of the roster have been spectacular this year and should give Boston fans plenty of faith that this front office can continue to keep this team in the AL East hunt every year.
It’s not quite San Francisco-level, but if you told me in the spring that Boston would be in the ALCS again, I’d have been pretty shocked. That’s a victory for Bloom, and certainly a feather in the cap of Alex Cora, who has convincingly established himself as one of the finest managers in the game.
Who needs a ring?
Martín Pérez: This is a perfect example of the kind of guy who deserves a ring for all the innings he ate during the regular season, even if he doesn’t contribute much in October. Someone had to throw those innings! On top of that, this is the lefty’s 10th big-league season, and he seems like a great dude.
Adam Ottavino: Fitting perfectly in the category of "Reliever Who Has Been Around Forever But Just Hasn’t Won Yet," the 35-year-old Ottavino might finally reach the promised land. Another fun fact: Before he became a reliever, Ottavino threw 141 innings in Triple-A for the Cardinals in 2011 but never appeared in the big leagues. You don’t get a ring for being emergency pitching depth all year.
Hansel Robles: Known for his overly optimistic pointing to the sky on fly balls that often end up leaving the yard, few non-closer relievers have gotten as much criticism as Robles during his career. That’s not to say it hasn’t been entirely warranted, as watching Robles is often a harrowing, stressful experience. But he has been solid for Boston since coming over from the Twins at the deadline, and I’d be happy to see him celebrate a World Series title. Heck, I’d love for him to record the last out — ideally on a deep fly ball that he correctly identifies as staying in the yard.
Travis Shaw: This is a less extreme version of Jason Castro, as Shaw also has the opportunity to win it all for the team that drafted him. Shaw played two years in Boston in 2015 and 2016 — right between the two Red Sox titles in 2013 and 2018 — before being traded to Milwaukee, so he has yet to taste the ultimate champagne.
Jose Iglesias: Sure, he might not be eligible to play at all this postseason because he didn’t join the Red Sox until after Sept. 1, but Igelsias has essentially become a glorified bench coach after hitting .356 in 23 games down the stretch. And remember, he was traded to Detroit from Boston during his rookie season in 2013, so he didn't get to celebrate a title with the Red Sox that year.
Why will they win?
The Red Sox will win because they are entering this round with the most momentum coming off handy defeats of their two biggest rivals in front of an absolutely electric Fenway Park home crowd that will surely continue to be a major factor.
We knew this lineup was capable of special things based on the usual suspects of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez alone. Add the huge boosts provided by free-agent additions Kiké Hernández and Hunter Renfroe, as well as trade acquisition Kyle Schwarber, and we’re really talking about an offense to behold.
We know the offense is good, but that’s not necessarily an edge when you compare this team to Houston. A Red Sox series victory is much more likely predicated on the advantage they have in starting pitching, as Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both shown themselves to be capable of downright dominance in the postseason. E-Rod also looked pretty damn solid in the ALDS. That trio is a healthy cut above what Houston will likely be rolling out.
Why will they lose?
While the starting pitching might be an advantage, it will likely have to come through for Boston because whoever is coming in after the starters is far more likely to struggle. The bullpen showed decently well in the ALDS, but beyond Garrett Whitlock, very few arms have been reliable for long stretches for Alex Cora this year. Nick Pivetta could be a huge X-factor.
How badly do they need to win?
It seems as if Carlos Correa is all but gone, heading for a gigantic (and deserved) payday as arguably the top player available in this winter’s free-agent class. That’s not to say this is a one-man team — obviously, the Astros are right back in the ALCS after George Springer left in free agency a year ago — but Correa is Houston’s best player, and replacing him will be no small feat.
If we assume these are Correa's final games as an Astro, then this is undeniably the best and final shot for this historically great core to win a (clean) World Series together and shut up the haters once and for all. We’ll never know for sure how much the sign-stealing helped the Astros; we do know their 2017 title is tainted in the eyes of the general baseball world.
That’s not to say they weren’t a great team then, but people will be side-eyeing that '17 title until the end of time. Assuming the shenanigans are truly in the past, no one will be able to deny this team’s greatness if the Astros can win it all this year. But they have to do it now — before Correa leaves.
Who needs a ring?
Dusty Baker: The Astros might be the least popular team in baseball now, but there are still surely a ton of people pulling for Dusty to finally win one as a manager. He did win as a player with the Dodgers in 1981, but that was 40 years and 23 seasons as a manager ago. You can imagine how badly the 72-year-old, toothpick-chewin’ icon wants to win a title as a skipper, especially with a team as good as Houston.
Zack Greinke: He’s by far the best pitcher of his generation yet to win a World Series. Add the fact that he was pulled from Game 7 of the 2019 World Series despite cruising through the first six innings, and he’s an easy answer. Greinke is arguably near the top of the list of all active players in the big leagues whom we’d all love to see finally win a ring.
Michael Brantley: He hasn’t had quite the legendary career that Greinke has, but this is Year 13 for Brantley, a five-time All-Star who has quietly been one of the best pure hitters in baseball for about a decade. He also likely has a poor taste in his mouth after the 2019 World Series, as Brantley was the last out, with a rare swing-and-miss on a back-foot slider from Daniel Hudson to clinch the title for Washington. Not to mention, he was injured for Cleveland’s entire postseason run in 2016, so that was another missed opportunity you know he’d like to make up for.
Jason Castro: The 34-year-old catcher came up with the Astros when they were absolutely horrific, making his only career All-Star Game in 2013, when Houston lost 111 games. Then he left in free agency after the 2016 season — right before the Astros started this epic run to five consecutive ALCS berths. Now he’s back in Houston with a great opportunity to win it all with the team that drafted him in the first round way back in 2008.
Kendall Graveman: Graveman’s career resurgence as one of the best relievers in baseball since he came back from Tommy John surgery and dealt with a bone tumor in his spine has been one of the best comeback stories in recent memory. His inter-division trade from the Mariners was a shock for everyone, including Graveman, who had become a clubhouse leader in Seattle and one of the most popular players on the team. Midseason trades can be hard on players for a boatload of reasons, especially when they least expect them, so it would be cool if the payoff for Graveman is the best possible one: a World Series title.
Why will they win?
The Astros will win this series and make a third trip to the World Series in the past five years if the best offense in baseball — yes, that’s them — continues to play like the best offense in baseball.
Reminder: Among all players on postseason teams, no one (!!!) had a higher wRC+ in the regular season than Kyle Tucker … who bats sixth or seventh in this lineup.
This offense is the gauntlet of all gauntlets, and it’s tremendously balanced from top to bottom, making it tremendously difficult to deploy a bullpen against in a close game — that is, if your starter had any luck in the first place.
Why will they lose?
It appears that Lance McCullers Jr. will not be available for the ALCS after exiting ALDS Game 4 with forearm tightness, and that’s a pretty big deal, considering he was Houston’s best starter all year and started two of the four ALDS games.
As talented as they are, Luis Garcia and Framber Valdez both looked shaky against the White Sox, which might prompt Houston to replace at least one of them with Greinke, Jose Urquidy or Jake Odorizzi — all of which are reasonable options, but none seems like the kind of arm that can shut down an offense as hot as Boston's. The Astros might also opt for Cristian Javier to start a game, rather than using him as a mid-innings super-reliever.
The Astros' offense might just be good enough to simply outscore the Red Sox, but the relative lack of pitching depth would seem to be the most likely cause for Houston’s downfall, especially in a seven-game series. The trickle-down effect of McCullers’ absence — using lesser starters, which might lead to needing more from the bullpen, which might lead to the whole staff being more tired — could be significant.
How much pressure?
On one hand, the Braves have the longest World Series drought of the four remaining teams. They last won it all in 1995 and haven’t been to the Fall Classic since 1999, despite winning 10 division titles since then. Normally, that would be a recipe for significant pressure to win another championship already.
However, knowing that Ronald Acuña Jr. is not in the picture and the Braves are up against arguably the most talented team in the league, it’s hard to say there is that much pressure on Atlanta. Yes, the Braves made some big deadline moves, but it wasn’t like they mortgaged their entire farm system to make them.
If it doesn’t work out this year, it was a hell of a run. Atlanta was under .500 every day of the season until Aug. 8 (!) and still won the division by 6.5 games. It’s worth noting that Freddie Freeman will be a free agent this winter, so you could argue that this team needs to win while it has Freeman in the fold, but it seems highly unlikely that he would actually go elsewhere, so it’s not like the window is closing.
Assuming Acuña is back at supernova strength in 2022, the Braves should be right back in the mix.
Who needs a ring?
Jesse Chavez: The 38-year-old right-hander is having a career year in the Atlanta bullpen after posting a 6.88 ERA for Texas in 2020. That’s amazing! Despite pitching in more than 500 regular-season games for 10 teams over 14 seasons, this is only the second time he has appeared in the postseason (the first was with the Cubs in the 2018 NL wild-card game). He’s the exact kind of guy you’d love to see have his World Series dreams realized.
Tyler Matzek: He was struggling to live up to his first-round pedigree in Colorado before he began dealing with the dreaded yips that ultimately knocked him out of affiliated baseball for multiple years. The fact that he has overcome all that to become one of Brian Snitker’s most trusted relievers is a tremendous tale of determination, and Matzek will always be an easy guy to root for.
Joc Pederson: Even though he just won last year with the Dodgers. I honestly just want to watch Joc celebrate more — this time with new friends!
Freeman: I don’t need to explain this one much. He’s a franchise icon who will surely be the first person to hold the trophy if the Braves do win it.
Travis d’Arnaud: It has been a strange career for Lil' D, one of just a handful of players on this Atlanta roster with World Series experience, thanks to his run with the Mets back in 2015. His breakout in 2020 might have been something of a shortened-season mirage, but he’s still an important part of this team.
Why will they win?
The Braves will win if their top three starting pitchers all deliver 90th-percentile outings and the historically homer-happy infield led by Freeman can produce some more timely offense. They also have the benefit of home-field advantage, despite finishing with 18 fewer wins than L.A. That could tilt the series just enough in their favor.
Why will they lose?
The Braves will lose in the NLCS if Adam Duvall continues to run into inexplicable outs on the bases in every game. OK, fine, that’s hopefully not going to happen anymore and probably not the most important factor.
The reality is the Braves will lose in the NLCS because the team they are facing is one of the best teams in baseball, and Atlanta’s best player is watching from the couch.
How badly do they need to win?
While there are elements of the 60-game season in 2020 that I struggle to take seriously in retrospect, the Dodgers being the last team standing is not one of them. I am not in the camp of people scoffing at that title as a "Mickey Mouse World Series" or whatever disparaging term you want to use.
To me, Los Angeles was the best team all season, and it beat a bunch of good teams in a larger postseason than normal to claim the crown. The Dodgers looked like champs, and they ended up champs, as strange as the road was.
That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if there is a semblance of sentiment within the Dodgers organization that last year didn’t feel as "real" as a championship this season would, especially with the chance to do it in front of a home crowd rather than at a neutral site.
More importantly, anytime you build a roster with this much talent, you should absolutely expect to win it all. For a decade, fans of nearly every other team have been looking at these Dodgers rosters and thinking, "Well, if they can’t win it, how in the world can my team win it?!"
Sure, there are other franchises such as the Yankees that insist that anything less than a championship is a disappointment, but the rosters don’t always match up to those expectations. In the Dodgers' case, they absolutely do. They’ve put a tremendous amount of resources into building this juggernaut, and now it needs to do its job and win another World Series.
Who needs a ring?
Max Scherzer: OK, so he doesn’t need a(nother) ring, but remember how much fun it was to watch him celebrate in 2019? Plus, the Dodgers acquired him for this exact reason, so he might as well deliver on expectations.
Albert Pujols: Another guy who doesn’t necessarily need one, but this would be an extremely cool outcome for Pujols after so many postseason-less years with the Angels. We were all skeptical that he could help the Dodgers much this year, but he was a quality platoon bat all season and is now basically the No. 1 fan on the bench. Let’s get the old man one more title!
Corey Knebel: America’s Favorite Opener is one of a few veteran members of this squad who weren’t around to celebrate a year ago. He has fit in quite nicely.
Steven Souza Jr.: Another ringless veteran alongside Knebel, Souza Jr. hasn’t really made much of an impact for the Dodgers this season, but he has managed to stick on the roster anyway. He’s known as a quality clubhouse presence, and I’d be happy for him to win a title, especially after his devastating injury in 2018 that essentially derailed his career.
Neftali Feliz: I have no idea if Feliz’s three innings for the Dodgers this season are enough to qualify him for a ring should they win it all (probably not), but I’m throwing his name out there because there are so few guys to pick from who didn’t just win. I’d love for Feliz to get a ring all these years later after back-to-back World Series L’s with the Rangers.
Why will they win?
The Dodgers will win because they are essentially rolling out a fringe All-Star lineup, even without Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw. They proved in the NLDS that they are capable of winning low-scoring nail-biters, but we also know that this lineup could throw up a seven-spot with little warning because the hitters are so damn good.
And hey, by the way, I know you might not have thought about him much during the regular season, but have you seen this Mookie Betts guy? His 4-for-4 performance in NLDS Game 5 was a much-needed reminder of how much of a difference-maker he can be.
And if Cody Bellinger is actually figuring it out now … oh boy, watch out.
Why will they lose?
On paper, it is extremely difficult to point to a part of this roster and say, "Hey, that’s a problem." As a result, I’m not entirely sure how to convey what it will take for the Dodgers to lose other than to say again that they don’t have home-field advantage, and the Braves are probably much better than their record indicates.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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