Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Astros-Phillies Game 4

Updated Nov. 2, 2022 2:18 p.m. ET

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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, the final exam is here with World Series, and it's been a fun one so far, to say the least.

Hopefully, you've studied hard this season, learned new tools and made a few extra bucks in the process.  Remember to keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 4, the overall series and some Super 6 fun.

The Phillies lead the Astros 2-1, so let's dive into Game 4, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet!

RELATED: Phillies go deep, win Game 3

Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola) (8 p.m. ET Tuesday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

I’ll begin with an apology: none of my data or models include the likelihood of pitchers tipping their pitches. Trust me, I wish they did. 

Perhaps what’s even more important is analyzing why Astros hitters could not plate anyone against Ranger Suárez and the Phillies' bullpen. 

The rainout from Monday proved to be a major advantage to Philadelphia because it gave a left-handed hurler like Suárez more rest to help his pinpoint accuracy. Specifically, his goal was to throw down and away to right-handed hitters:

While those areas have been the most effective against a dangerous Astros lineup, Aaron Nola tends to stay in the strike zone, relying on his four-seam fastball and his curveball. 

He tried to keep it down and away in Game 1, but the Astros pounded him for five earned runs. However, given that his expected batting average ranks in the 80th percentile, a bounce-back performance seems reasonable.

When it was clear Game 3 wouldn’t be played Monday, Astros manager Dusty Baker did not announce drastic changes to his projected starters for the next couple of games. 

Cristian Javier will start Wednesday night because of the insane numbers with his four-seam fastball. His expected batting average of .168 is in the top 2% of MLB, and his strikeout rate of 33.2% is in the top 6% of baseball. Despite what these Phillies hitters have done in the World Series, Javier has the advantage in this matchup.

In what might be the last time we see a low-scoring game in this edition of the Fall Classic, because of the starting pitcher and even cooler weather, I want to bet on a pitchers' duel. 

Obviously, Under 7.5 runs is the first place I’m going. I am also steering clear of anytime home run bets because hits will be scarce. Lastly, in pitchers' duels, a one-run outcome seems most appropriate, so my lean is the Phillies on the run line.

PICK: Astros-Phillies Under 7.5 combined runs scored (-120 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
PICK: Phillies +1 run line (-149 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $16.71 total)

Bryce Harper and the Phillies mash in Philadelphia's wild World Series Game 3 win

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry dissect the Philadelphia Phillies' huge win over the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the World Series.

Another way to earn a good grade is by answering the FOX Bet Super 6 question-and-answer portion of the class. Here are some tips.

Super 6 Contest Picks

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

Against right-handed pitchers this postseason, the Astros and Phillies have two of the top three expected on-base percentages. It should mean plenty of baserunners, but I do not have a lot of runs scored with two strikeout artists (pronounced ar-teests) on the hill. I’m taking 4-5.

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

Even though the Phillies' bullpen has been getting most of the attention this World Series, it’s the Astros with the higher strikeout rate this postseason (32.5% vs 30.4%). It’s not a big difference, but it’s enough for me to say that with Javier on the mound, the Astros could throw for a lot of K’s. I’ll take 11.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

It’s important to note that the expected batting average from Game 3 was similar (.194 for the Phillies, .186 for the Astros). Philadelphia is hitting for power more frequently this series, but Houston can string more hits together, especially at the top of the batting order. I’ll take the Astros but with a modest 7.

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

If the Phillies are stranding fewer runners, the simple answer is the Astros. If a lot of strikeouts are expected, it could be a reasonably high number for a pitcher’s duel. I’m going with 7-8.

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

Keep in mind, when analyzing the Phillies’ bullpen that their best relievers are still fresh and available if this game remains close. I like 34 as a middle number for the Astros.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

Houston should be able to tie this series once again and win a nail-biter, 3-2.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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Philadelphia Phillies

Houston Astros

MLB - Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 11/03/2022

Cristian Javier

Aaron Nola

Ranger Suárez