National Football League

2024 NFL division predictions: Winners for each AFC and NFC division

Updated May. 17, 2024 11:02 a.m. ET

Now that the full 2024 NFL schedule is out, it's time to predict the winners of all eight divisions!

Below, check out predictions from our NFL staff — Ben Arthur, Greg Auman, David Helman, Henry McKenna, Geoff Schwartz, Ralph Vacchiano, Carmen Vitali, Eric D. Williams — as they determine the teams who will not only make the playoffs next season, but also host at least one playoff game with an inside track to reach the Super Bowl.

Here is the breakdown:

AFC East: Miami Dolphins (12-5)

The Dolphins might not finish well, but they’re absolutely stellar out of the gate. And they are absolutely a regular-season team. So it’s easy to imagine them taking the AFC East this year, even though they let the division crown slip between their fingers last year. Their schedule is just so so so(!) much easier than Buffalo’s. And it’s a little bit less treacherous than the Jets’ slate. Miami has been fine-tuning its roster and it knows its biggest problem is cold weather. But even if the Dolphins struggle to finish strong, they should still be able to build a big enough lead to finish in first — and maybe even compete for the top seed in the conference. — Henry McKenna

Buffalo Bills (10-7)

New York Jets (10-7)

New England Patriots (3-14)

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

Can the Bengals finally avoid an 0-2 start to the season? The Week 2 matchup in Kansas City will make that difficult, but at least Joe Burrow gets to open his 2024 season against a rebuilding New England team. The schedule was always going to be tough thanks to playing in the nasty AFC North, but the Bengals will only play three teams from outside their division that had a winning record last year. If Burrow can stay healthy, there’s a big opportunity for a bounce back season. — David Helman

Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

Cleveland Browns (9-8)

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

Will Lamar Jackson be a good ‘architect’ for the Ravens offense?

AFC South: Houston Texans (10-7)

The reigning AFC South champions, the Texans won’t be creeping up on anyone this season. They have a Saturday game plus five primetime showdowns, including three straight in the middle of the season from Weeks 9-11 (Thursday night at the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets, Sunday night vs. the Lions, Monday night at the Cowboys) sandwiched between division games. Houston also has the night game on Christmas day against Baltimore, a rematch of the AFC divisional round from last season. It caps a daunting three-game stretch (preceded by the Dolphins and Chiefs, respectively). The Texans’ strength of schedule is eye-grabbing on paper (fourth) but the reinforcements they’ve made around C.J. Stroud this offseason still gives them one of the AFC’s best rosters. Houston should secure double-digit wins for the second straight season. — Ben Arthur

Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

Tennessee Titans (8-9)

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

The Chiefs have won at least 11 games in nine of Andy Reid's 11 seasons as head coach. They've won at least 11 games in each of the six seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback, including their worst regular-season record of 11-6 last season. The Chiefs are better this year, adding more weapons for Mahomes while maintaining most of their defense from last season. They always play a tough schedule, but they get the Ravens and Bengals in the first two weeks, which favors the fast-starting Chiefs. (Mahomes is 15-4 in September.)

The Chiefs also have a pair of tough road contests in Pittsburgh and Cleveland. On the other hand, the AFC West is paired with the NFC South this season, which means four winnable games against a poor division. And there's also the six division games, where Mahomes has won 30 of 35. Even though I believe the Chiefs will coast through the regular season, just doing enough to win the division to preserve their older players, I have the Chiefs going 12-5. — Geoff Schwartz

Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

Denver Broncos (7-10)

Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

Chiefs to host Ravens in Week 1, Bengals in Week 2

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NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

After a disastrous, 1-6 finish to last season, the Eagles need to turn the page quickly. And it sure looks like the schedule gives them a chance to do it. After a tough opener in Brazil against the Packers, they have much easier games against the Falcons and Saints. Their toughest road trip in the first seven games is at Tampa, and they’ve got an early bye (Week 5). Not all of them are easy games, but none of those opponents are top-tier teams, giving the Eagles a real chance to open strong. It also gives them a chance to get used to their new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and figure out the best ways to use their new weapon, Saquon Barkley. It’ll also help that they’ll see the Panthers, Commanders and Giants in their final five games, making it unlikely they’ll have a late-season collapse again. — Ralph Vacchiano

Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

New York Giants (8-9)

Washington Commanders (5-12)

NFC North (tie): Detroit Lions (11-6)

The thing about winning the division is that you then have to play a first-place schedule the following season. That's the predicament the Lions find themselves in. Their schedule is headlined by the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans (yes, they belong here), their competition for the division in the Green Bay Packers and an NFC Championship rematch with the San Francisco 49ers. The good news is, the Lions should be up for it.

General manager Brad Holmes made certain that he shored up the secondary this offseason, acquiring three top-tier corners via trade and the draft, while also providing depth to the trenches on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Jared Goff was given the richest vote of confidence he could have asked for in a new four-year deal that makes him the second-highest paid quarterback by annual contract value for the time being and has every incentive to live up to it. Dan Campbell's guys know what it's like to have the Super Bowl in their sights only to have it ripped away from them — and they're not trying to feel that way again this year. — Carmen Vitali

NFC North (tie): Green Bay Packers (11-6)

The Packers are here to be the Lions’ biggest challengers. This division race is too close to call this far out but considering the amount of success Green Bay had with a first-year starter and the youngest team in the league, I have to think they’re only just getting started. Provided quarterback Jordan Love can continue his own ascent and the defense ends up living up to its potential under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, I expect the Packers to be firmly in the mix for the NFC North crown as well as staring down another playoff run, likely an even deeper one than 2023. —Carmen Vitali

Chicago Bears (9-8)

Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

Detroit Lions ink Jared Goff to $212 million, 4-year extension

NFC South (tie): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

There's a hugely important month from Weeks 5-8 – both games against the Falcons, both on short weeks, and a game at New Orleans, arguably the toughest three division games in a span of 24 days. With a much tougher schedule than their division rivals, the Bucs need to go at least 2-1 in those three games, or really overachieve in pulling off tougher wins. Tampa Bay had never won back-to-back division titles in their history two years ago, and now they're going for four in a row. Can first-year coordinator Liam Coen find a long-missing run game and get the Bucs' offense back into the top half of the league? — Greg Auman

NFC South (tie): Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

Atlanta takes a nice step forward in Raheem Morris’ first season, and Kirk Cousins should elevate their offense significantly after they totaled 17 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 17 games last year. I’m still surprised they haven’t done more to upgrade their outside pass rush, hoping instead that a healthy Grady Jarrett and rookie Ruke Orhorhoro inside can create pressure up the middle. Can new OC Zac Robinson get more than eight TDs out of Bijan Robinson in his second season? This division has produced only one wild card in the last seven years, but should sneak a second team into the playoffs this season. — Greg Auman

New Orleans Saints (7-10)

Carolina Panthers (5-12)

Is the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick actually justifiable for Falcons?

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

The 49ers had a three-game losing streak during the first half of last season but still finished in the top spot in the NFC West for a second year in a row. With most of last year's frontline players back from a team that lost the Super Bowl in overtime, they'll make it three straight years in 2024. Brock Purdy proved he can lead a team to the big game and remains on his rookie deal, allowing for San Francisco to continue to add pieces around him. But the 49ers must protect Purdy and play better against the run defensively. San Francisco's opponent winning percentage from last season of .505 is tied for 12th in the NFL. — Eric Williams

Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Arizona Cardinals (8-9)

Seattle Seahawks (7-10)