National Football League

NFL odds Week 12: How to bet Steelers-Colts, pick

Updated Nov. 28, 2022 12:17 p.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers are traveling to the Indianapolis Colts for a Week 12 NFL Monday Night matchup.

Both of these teams are coming off of Week 11 losses. The Steelers were defeated, 37-30, by the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Colts lost a tough one to the Philadelphia Eagles, 17-16.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Steelers-Colts game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, and insight from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Point spread: Colts -2.5 (Colts favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
Moneyline: Colts -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.71 total); Steelers +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 39.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

For a run-first team like the Colts, the first place you want to start when analyzing a matchup is whether their opponent can successfully stop the run.

The answer has been no over the last three games, as the Patriots, Raiders and Eagles ranked No. 21, 24 and 28 vs. the run. The Colts still went 1-2 in those games, although they went 1-1 with Matt Ryan.

On the season, the Colts are 3-2-1 vs. teams that rank below average defending the run.

They upset the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders, tied the Texans and lost to the Eagles (by only one point) and Patriots.

Against mid-tier run defenses, ranking 10-19, the Colts are 1-1, splitting games with the No. 15-ranked Jags defense.

But against top-10 run defenses, the Colts are 0-3, losing to Washington and being swept by the Titans, and scoring 10, 16 and 17 points in those three games.

Now the Colts must face the No. 7 run defense of the Steelers. And it’s a better run defense than No. 7 because they were without T.J. Watt for most of the season.

With T.J. Watt, they held…

Joe Mixon to 3.0 YPC in Week 1
Alvin Kamara to 3.3 YPC in Week 10
Joe Mixon to 2.9 YPC in Week 11

Running backs tend to see a lot of volume against the Steelers because Pittsburgh doesn’t score a lot nor pull away in games. But from an efficiency perspective, Pittsburgh should be able to limit what is most important to the Colts.

We also have massive pressure splits for Matt Ryan. When he’s pressured, he ranks No. 29 in EPA/att. But he delivers average efficiency when kept clean.

Pittsburgh’s defense can do enough to keep this game close. Buy this line up to 3 or use Steelers in teasers.

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