National Football League

Why the San Francisco 49ers are the best bet to win the NFC

Published Aug. 14, 2021 1:00 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

When you reminisce about Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, you probably think about Patrick Mahomes hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and Andy Reid getting doused with orange Gatorade.

Most of us remember the end result, but many forget that the Niners had a 10-point lead with seven minutes and change left on the clock.

San Francisco’s defense faltered in "prevent mode," and Mahomes threw an off-balance, 44-yard butterfly ball to Tyreek Hill on third-and-15. Four plays later, Kansas City scored to make it 20-17 before adding two more late touchdowns to win 31-20.

I chose to relive this fourth quarter meltdown to remind you just how good the Niners were two seasons ago. They finished the regular season 13-3 and smoked the Vikings (27-10) and Packers (37-20) en route to the title game.

In 2020, Kyle Shanahan’s bunch was decimated by injuries. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman and Solomon Thomas all spent way too much time on injured reserve, and the Niners sputtered to 6-10.

Naturally, I’m ready to push the red and gold chips into the middle this season. Nothing gets me going more than a super-talented football team flying under the radar.

Sportsbook executives around the country keep telling me that bettors can’t stop and won’t stop firing bets on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+310; bet $10 to win $41 total at FOX Bet) and Green Bay Packers (+650; bet $10 to win $75 total at FOX Bet) to win the NFC. The general public just doesn’t envision a scenario in which Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers don’t reach another Super Bowl.

We’ll see about that.

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When healthy, San Francisco is one of the best rosters in all of football. Shanahan built a monster running game in 2019, and the Niners churned their way to more than 2,300 yards on the ground that season. A solid running game does wonders for an offense because it opens up everything else in the playbook.

The Niners' defense allowed only 282 yards per game in 2019 (second-best in the NFL) and led the league in passing defense. Last season, they remained top-five in both categories, despite being on the field way more due to half the team’s offensive weapons sitting on the sideline in street clothes. I’m banking on injury regression the right way for San Francisco in 2021.

Nobody — I mean nobody — wants to see this team healthy.

There has been a lot of talk on television and sports radio about the NFC West being the best division in football. Really? There’s certainly a lot of flash with Sean McVay and the Rams, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, and Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. But all three of those teams are flawed.

The Los Angeles offense will look much better with Matthew Stafford replacing Jared Goff, but the running back room is already searching for answers because of Cam Akers’ Achilles injury. Wilson is amazing, but that Seahawks defense leaves a whole lot to be desired. And then there’s Kliff Kingsbury, who couldn’t coach his way out of a paper bag.

Advantage San Francisco.

You might not like Garoppolo as much as I do, but I believe he’ll benefit from the rising competition with rookie Trey Lance. It’s Garoppolo’s job to lose, but reports from Niners training camp are glowing for the youngster.

I trust Shanahan with either guy, and if he decides to roll with the younger quarterback with a stronger arm and better wheels, that’s totally cool. I’m in either way.

San Francisco’s odds to win the division and conference are more than fair, and honestly, the prices are higher than they probably should be because of last season’s disappointment.

The Niners are easily the best 53-man roster in the West, and I expect their playcalling and defensive schematics to keep them in close contention for another NFC Championship. So let's line 'em up:

49ers to win the NFC West: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total at FOX Bet)

49ers to win the NFC: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total at FOX Bet)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.