UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley main card predictions
The welterweight title is on the line Saturday night when Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley throw down in the main event of UFC 201 from Atlanta. In the co-main event, two of the UFC’s best strawweights face off in a possible No. 1 contender fight while welterweights Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger try to get back on track.
Let’s take a look at how those fights, and the rest of the main card, might play out.
Robbie Lawler is coming off of back-to-back Fight of the Night performances against longtime title contenders Carlos Condit and Rory MacDonald, so it’s no surprise fans are expecting a war with fourth-ranked Tyron Woodley on Saturday night.
Lawler and Woodley have virtually identical striking statistics, with both fighters landing over three strikes per minute at a 46-percent clip. Where they differ, however, is in significant strikes, as Lawler lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.56 for Woodley.
“Ruthless” previously has had problems with talented grapplers who were competent in the stand-up (see Johny Hendricks I, Tim Kennedy and Jacare Souza fights) but seemed to overcome those struggles in the rematch against Hendricks.
The fight will be a grind, no doubt, but it hasn’t been wise to bet against Lawler lately.
Prediction: Lawler by fourth-round knockout
The strawweight scrap between Rose Namajunas and Karolina Kowalkiewicz is expected to be an all-out war, and for good reason. Kowalkiewicz is a high-volume striker, as seen by her astounding 6.17 strikes landed per minute, and will be looking to push the pace from bell to bell.
Namajunas has submitted two of her last three opponents and looks better each time she takes the Octagon. I imagine the fight will be equally contested on the feet, but “Thug” Rose can separate herself by dragging the fight to the ground and working her exceptional submission skills.
Prediction: Namajunas by third-round submission
With both of their backs against the wall, Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger are going to exchange blows on the UFC 201 main card with welterweight positioning at stake.
Ellenberger has had a string of extremely difficult fights, facing the likes of Stephen Thompson, Kelvin Gastelum, Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald since 2013, and it gets no easier against Brown.
“The Immortal” is also going through a tough stretch, going 1-3 in his last four, but he should have the edge where ever the fight goes against Ellenberger.
Prediction: Brown by second-round submission
Hard-hitting bantamweight Francisco Rivera takes on Erik Perez in a classic striker vs. grappler matchup on the UFC 201 main card.
Rivera has lost two straight, one which was a controversial split decision against Brad Pickett where he amassed a near 2-to-1 striking advantage to go with two takedowns. Perez, on the other hand, is looking to string together victories for the first time since 2012.
Rivera's striking output (4.21 strikes landed per minute) is nearly double that of the UFC average (2.5), but Perez defends strikes extremely well, fending off 70 percent of the strikes thrown his way, and has managed 3.48 takedowns every 15 minutes.
This fight will surely be a barnburner, but Perez has the tools to steer the action in his favor for three rounds.
Prediction: Perez by third-round submission
