National Football League

Can Bucs upset 49ers in Purdy's first start? We preview the matchup

Updated Dec. 8, 2022 7:50 p.m. ET

The wild card in this week's Buccaneers-49ers matchup is rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, the final pick in this year's draft who has been thrust into a starting role after injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX) is his first start, but he went 25-for-37 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception off the bench in last week's impressive win over the Dolphins. If he can win his first career start, it'll be something that plenty of more prominent 49ers couldn't do — Joe Montana lost his in 1979, Alex Smith lost his in 2005 and Lance lost his last year.

Across the NFL, quarterbacks making their first NFL start since 2018 have won just 38% of the time. A seventh-round pick like Purdy? The last 10 seventh-round quarterbacks to start a game went 2-8 in their first starts, going back to 2005. And Bucs coach Todd Bowles' defenses have fared well against rookie quarterbacks in recent years. They technically lost to the Steelers' Kenny Pickett this season (he started but Mitch Trubisky finished), but beat the Jets' Zach Wilson, the Bears' Justin Fields and the Patriots' Mac Jones — as well as the Chargers' Justin Herbert and the Cardinals' Kyler Murray during their rookie years.

The last meeting between the two teams was the 2019 opener, Bowles' first game as Tampa Bay's defensive coordinator. The game had more defensive touchdowns (3) than on offense (2), with Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon getting pick-sixes off Jameis Winston in the second half. The 49ers have 18 takeaways this year — just three total in their four losses, but eight in their past three wins, including four forced against the Dolphins last week. The Bucs, rather strangely, just avoid turnovers altogether, for or against, with 11 each way through 12 games. On a per-game basis, only six teams in NFL history have finished with fewer than what Tampa Bay is on pace for.

This game could end up being crucial to seeding in the NFC playoffs, and the difference between the No. 3 seed — where San Francisco is right now — and the No. 4 occupied by the Bucs could be significant. The fourth seed will have to open the playoffs against the lesser of the Eagles and Cowboys, then potentially travel to face the NFC East champ in the division round. The third seed, meanwhile, would face an easier opening draw — right now the Giants (7-4-1) or potentially the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and have lost to both Tampa Bay and San Francisco this season. The third seed would likely then play at the Vikings, and while they're nothing to scoff at with a 10-2 record, those two losses are to the Eagles and Cowboys. Sunday's Bucs-49ers winner would have the head-to-head tiebreaker should the two teams finish with the same record.

Matchup to watch: Tom Brady and a struggling Bucs offense against the NFL's toughest defense

The 49ers have given up the fewest yards and points per game in the league this season, and they're also first against the run in 2022. Tampa Bay has somehow won despite its offense this season, scoring 21 points or fewer in all six of its wins. The NFL record for such wins in a season is eight, well within reach with five more games to play. The Bucs are 27th out of 32 teams in scoring, this after being among the league's top offenses the previous two seasons. The best thing Tampa Bay does on offense is limit negative plays, with the lowest interception percentage and sack rate in the NFL.

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Both marks will be challenged Sunday, as the 49ers defense ranks as the fifth-highest in both categories. If that's the matchup everybody is watching, keep an eye out for the undercard — Tampa Bay's defense ranks fifth in points allowed and seventh in total yards, and its challenge is to shut down a 49ers offense that's good but not great: 13th in scoring, 10th in yardage and perhaps most dangerously fifth in third-down conversions.

Prediction: Between the 49ers' rookie quarterback and the Bucs' offensive struggles, the over-under on this game is just 37.5 points, the second-lowest in the NFL this weekend, above only Ravens-Steelers. The Bucs' best path to winning is to force turnovers, but they've gotten just two of those in the past eight games, an astounding drought for a defense predicated on takeaways. As long as the 49ers don't make that mistake, there's little to show that the Bucs will be able to score against the league's top defense.

A loss would be Tampa Bay's seventh, and the last Brady team to do that in a season was 20 years ago, when the Patriots went 9-7 and missed the playoffs in the middle of a run of three Super Bowl championships in four years. Ultimately, I'll go with this: 49ers 17, Bucs 13

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.