MLB tiers: Where every team stands as the Hot Stove reheats
By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer
Editor's note: This story was originally published on Dec. 2, 2021. With the end of the MLB lockout, we think it's worth revisiting.
Let’s just call it Hot Stove Halftime.
Obviously, there are much bigger issues at play with MLB’s institution of a lockout following the expiration of the CBA, and those negotiations will remain in the headlines in the coming weeks as both sides angle for a deal. Free-agent signings and trades, however, won’t be coming across our Twitter timelines for a while.
For the average fan used to tracking player movement in the winter, this is an unusual break in the action. Fortunately, we were treated to a flurry of transactions before the lockout that helped illuminate each team’s goals heading into the 2022 season. Now we have at least an idea of which teams will be aggressive when an agreement is reached and transactions can resume.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, 28 of the top 50 free agents have already signed. That’s way more than normal by this time of the offseason, but it still leaves plenty of talent available whenever the Hot Stove fires up again. As a result, this is certainly not a ranking of offseason winners and losers. Rather, this is an exercise in grouping the 30 MLB teams into tiers of activity and ambition based on the moves they made — or didn’t make — in November.
NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS READY TO WIN
These teams were all very bad as recently as 2019, but their young cores and strong farm systems have put them in an ideal position to spend big this winter and push for the postseason in 2022.
Blue Jays: Losing both Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien hurts, no doubt. But Kevin Gausman is a quality Ray replacement, and it was great to see the Jays commit long-term to Jose Berrios. I also think they’re sneaky suitors for one of the top infielders remaining on the market.
Mariners: It seemed like Seattle was going to prioritize offense early in the winter, but the Mariners instead filled one of their open rotation spots with AL Cy Young winner Ray. No complaints from this Mariners fan, but they are going to have to add a lot more than just Adam Frazier if this lineup is to be considered October-caliber come Opening Day.
Tigers: They talked a big game heading into the winter and have already delivered with the additions of Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Báez. The Tigers might be out on the biggest fish, Carlos Correa, but I have to imagine they’re not finished adding. It feels like they are still a step or two behind Seattle and certainly Toronto, but the Tigers could challenge the White Sox sooner than seemed possible even a year ago.
NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS READY TO WIN (WITH STEVE COHEN AS OWNER)
Only one team has an owner seemingly willing to spend whatever it takes to win, and it’s not the New York team you would have expected for most of baseball history.
Mets: If we were ranking offseason winners at this stage, the Mets would top the list alongside Texas. They still don’t have a manager, but I don’t think New York fans are as concerned about that now that they have Max Scherzer as their No. 2 starter. Most importantly, the Mets are definitely not finished making this roster better. I’d expect them to add another quality starting pitcher post-lockout.
NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS DOING THINGS BUT STILL NOT READY TO WIN
One could argue that the Tigers belong in this tier, but they have the advantage of competing in a weaker AL Central. These teams don’t have that luxury.
Rangers: Yes, they already spent more than half a billion dollars on two of the best available free agents in Corey Seager and Semien, and they deserve a ton of credit for doing so. But this pitching staff, even with the addition of Jon Gray, is one of the weakest in the league. Until the Rangers upgrade significantly in that department, dreams of October in Arlington, Texas, will remain far-fetched.
Angels: Here we go again. This is the only team in baseball to finish under .500 each of the past five seasons, before many of which they made similar moves that appeared to put them on track to compete. It’s not that the Angels haven’t added good players — mainly Noah Syndergaard. It's that the roster remains troublingly top-heavy, and questions about pitching depth remain. I’ll believe it when I see it; the Angels simply haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
Marlins: Although Miami paid a considerable prospect price, bringing in quality veterans Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle makes a lot of sense for this young but talented roster. Extending Sandy Alcantara, one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, was a huge win. Avisaíl García should give a nice boost to an offense that desperately needs boosting. That said, competing in the NL East against the defending World Series champions, the team that employs Juan Soto and two payroll behemoths in the Mets and Phillies is a steep mountain to climb. I admire the aggressiveness, but the Marlins have a long way to go here.
SLEEPING GIANTS WITH ANTSY FANS
World Series favorites on Opening Day 2021, these two titans have been stunningly quiet thus far this winter. It’s hard to believe that will remain the case post-lockout.
Dodgers: Retaining super-utilityman Chris Taylor was a solid move to squeeze in before the lockout, but a lot of questions remain here with Scherzer's and Seager’s exits and Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen remaining unsigned. This is still a tremendous roster with plenty of time left to be improved further, but post-lockout, the pressure will be on in L.A. to make some trademark Dodger-sized splashes.
Yankees: The Yankees, meanwhile, do not have the benefit of a recent World Series crown to fall back on. New York fans want big-time improvements now, and they didn’t get any before the lockout. Shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain unsigned, but continued reluctance to push the payroll to — dare I say it — Mets territory might land the Yankees as runners-up on some of their bigger targets.
WORLD SERIES WINNERS WHO NEED TO RE-SIGN FREDDIE
The champs seemingly had One Job entering the offseason, and they’ve yet to complete it. What gives?
Braves: Just sign Freddie Freeman already. Most people expected that to get done within days of the World Series parade, but the face of the franchise remains on the open market. Could he really leave Atlanta? And even if the Braves do retain him, what about all the outfielders who carried them through October?
PLAYOFF TEAMS TRYING TO GET BETTER
These teams are already good, so there seems to be less urgency to improve. They’ve made efforts to fill some holes on their rosters but have yet to make any big splashes via free agency or trade.
Astros: Bringing back Justin Verlander set the tone for the winter and reminded everyone that the defending AL champs will be a lot to handle even if Correa does indeed leave.
Rays: I dig the Corey Kluber and Brooks Raley signings and moving Wendle from an increasingly crowded infield made sense as well. Oh, and the Rays gave Wander Franco a boatload of money before he turned 21 because he’s already one of the best players in baseball. Smart! I’d expect this team to remain active on the trade market post-lockout.
Giants: They can’t get the whole band back together with Buster Posey retiring and Gausman heading to Toronto, but retaining Brandon Belt, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani was smart. The Giants still have a ton of money to spend, though. Kris Bryant could return, and if not, this would be a nice landing spot for one of the other top free-agent bats, such as Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto.
Red Sox: The buzzer-beater trade to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a couple of solid prospects was a nifty move, and the Sox added some intriguing pitching depth in Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton. Still, keep an eye on Boston for a much bigger move post-lockout.
Brewers: Hunter Renfroe is a really nice García replacement, though the Brewers paid a hefty prospect price for him. They’ve been awfully quiet on the free-agent front, and as defending division champions, the Brewers need to do more to remain the NL Central favorites.
Cardinals: The Steven Matz signing seems to have made a bigger impact on the Mets than the Cardinals, but it was a solid addition to a rotation that desperately needs some stability. The Cardinals could still use another starter or two.
White Sox: Kendall Graveman is awesome and should slot in nicely in the eighth inning should the White Sox indeed trade Craig Kimbrel, as has been rumored. That said, Sox fans would like to see a bit more urgency, as this roster is primed to contend but could use some offensive upgrades.
HUGE DISAPPOINTMENTS THAT NEED TO BOUNCE BACK
These teams entered 2021 with high hopes and flopped in frustrating fashion. They now find themselves in a precarious position, having made big moves in recent winters but now needing to augment their cores with more stable supporting casts.
Padres: Perhaps they learned the lesson that winning the winter doesn’t automatically translate to success the following season. The Padres have been quiet thus far, but I’m never counting out AJ Preller to get creative, especially on the trade front. I also don’t know how he’s going to sit still during the lockout.
Phillies: They finally made it back above .500 (barely) after a decade of losing, but the postseason still eludes them. We keep expecting Dave Dombrowski to take a big swing somewhere on the market, but there hasn’t been a whole lot to get excited about just yet. I’d still expect the Phillies to do something significant before Opening Day.
FORMER POWERHOUSES ENTERING REBUILDS … OR NOT?
These two teams were perennial NL contenders until they became the biggest sellers at the 2021 deadline. Are they wholeheartedly rebuilding or ready to try again sooner than we think?
Cubs: The 2016 World Series feels like 50 years ago with how different the Cubs' roster looks. It seemed that they were ready to use 2022 to evaluate prospects and figure out who will be around for the next good Cubs team in 2024 or so. Then they signed Marcus Stroman. So ... are they going for it? Could they take all the money that came off the books in July and immediately put it toward another star such as Correa? That seems unlikely, but the Cubs are now one of the bigger wild cards in the free-agent market post-lockout.
Nationals: Conversely, the Nats don’t seem to be in any rush to spend their way back into the postseason conversation. They’ll likely add a few more veterans a la Cesar Hernandez post-lockout, but I’d be shocked by any big splashes. We’ll see how far Soto can carry them on his own. And now the Nats have to face former ace Scherzer a handful of times per year. Oof.
THE REST OF THE NL WEST
We entered 2021 expecting it to be all about the Dodgers and Padres, only to watch the Giants win 107 games, much to the chagrin of the other two teams in the division, who thought they might have a shot at third place. Where do they go from here?
Rockies: No one is ever sure what this team is up to, so there’s no sense in predicting what direction Colorado will opt for post-lockout. What is the plan, exactly? I just hope I’m not asking this question again this time next winter.
D-backs: As bad as they were in 2021, I can’t include Arizona with Baltimore and Pittsburgh because the D-backs’ horrific season was not nearly as expected, and I don’t think this is a 100-loss roster. Mark Melancon and Jordan Luplow are respectable reinforcements, but you’d still project the Diamondbacks at or near the bottom of a loaded division.
THE REST OF THE AL CENTRAL
The White Sox ran away with this division in 2021, and the Tigers are primed to challenge them soon. What are the other three teams up to?
Twins: It remains unclear if Minnesota is ready to jump back into the mix for the division or if its ambitions were humbled somewhat by a disastrous 2021. The Byron Buxton extension was a massive win for everyone involved, but otherwise, the Twins have been quiet in terms of adding any new players to the organization.
Guardians: In one sense, no team has changed more this offseason. On the day they officially became the Guardians, this team completely overhauled the bottom part of the 40-man roster, adding 11 new players and DFA’ing seven. But those were moves on the fringes that generally piqued only the interest of roster dorks (like me). The Guardians are one of just three teams, along with Oakland and Cincinnati, that didn't sign a single MLB free agent in November.
Royals: They snuck in a Taylor Clarke signing hours before the lockout. Who’s Taylor Clarke, you ask? The fact that he was the Royals' biggest move of November tells you all you need to know about how quiet they’ve been.
BIG MOVES LOOMING
As soon as the World Series ended, rumors about these two teams’ strong intentions to cut payroll significantly via trade began to circulate. But they haven’t made any deals ... yet.
Athletics: As the rest of the AL West is spending up a storm, Oakland is gearing up to go backward. The A's have appealing trade pieces, but how many will actually be on the move? One or both of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman? How many of Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt? Such is the frustrating, self-imposed circle of life for this organization, which might not even be in Oakland to see out the impending rebuild.
Reds: Like Oakland, Cincinnati has several intriguing arms on the trade block in Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. It will bum me out significantly if they move those guys, though. You have a rejuvenated, 38-year-old Joey Votto! Try to win for him!
THEY'RE STILL BAD
Unlike the Rangers, these cellar-dwellers appear content to hang out in the basement for another season.
Pirates: I’m glad they brought back Yoshi Tsutsugo, and I think they did well in the Stallings trade. But after moving Stallings and DFA’ing Chad Kuhl, Colin Moran and Steven Brault, Bucs fans have even fewer recognizable players to cheer for in what will surely be another difficult season. I think this farm system is excellent, and I trust GM Ben Cherington’s vision, but the product on the big-league field is going to be pretty tough to defend.
Orioles: Jordan Lyles and Rougned Odor, baby! A fourth 100-loss season in four full seasons (excluding 2020) seems plausible. Adley Rutschman can’t arrive soon enough.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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