Major League Baseball

What we learned in MLB this week: Are the Nationals winning the Juan Soto trade?

Updated Aug. 31, 2023 12:26 p.m. ET

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Jordan Shusterman

FOX Sports MLB Analyst

Every Thursday, Jordan Shusterman examines one thing from each MLB division that we've learned from the past week of action. 

AL East: Baltimore's replacement strategy with Bautista

While we're still not sure how serious All-Star closer Felix Bautista's UCL injury is, it seems very possible that he won't take the mound again in 2023. This would be a devastating blow for a first-place Baltimore team that now faces some big questions about the structure of its bullpen with October fast approaching.

The good news up front is that the Orioles have the rare staff with more than one All-Star reliever, enabling the obvious promotion of breakout right-hander Yennier Canó to the closer role in Bautista's absence. Canó hit a bit of a rough patch in early July after an otherworldly first half, but has rebounded to the tune of not allowing an earned run in 13 August appearances. If we assume manager Brandon Hyde does make the natural transition to Canó for the ninth, who slots in for the seventh and eighth innings of tight ballgames becomes a lot more interesting. 

The deadline acquisition of Shintaro Fujinami certainly looks prudent, although he's an especially volatile option for high-leverage situations. Catch the flame-throwing, splitter-serving Fujinami on the right day, and you can't fathom how anyone could ever reach base against him. To call his command "shaky" would be generous, however, and when his severe control problems rear their ugly head, you're in for a wild ride in the worst kind of way. Still, Hyde will likely need to rely on the right-hander in more tight spots than he'd like to with Bautista out.

Beyond Canó and Fujinami, the most intriguing Baltimore bullpen arms to monitor are righty Jacob Webb, who has been marvelous this month since Baltimore claimed him off waivers from the Angels, and young lefty DL Hall. While Hall has been a bit of an enigma since the Orioles drafted him in the 2017 first round out of a Georgia high school, his role at the big-league level might finally be crystallizing. It seems like the organization is finally content to let Hall air it out of the ‘pen after yo-yoing him between starter and reliever over the past two seasons. Since his recent recall from Triple-A, we've already seen him chucking high-90s heat. Hall's command comes and goes as it always has, but few southpaws possess the ferocity of his stuff when he's feeling it, and that could be quite the element to add to the late-inning mix for Baltimore in September and beyond. 

AL Central: New Twin on the block

Carlos Correa's .695 OPS and league-leading 28 double plays grounded into are alarming, but the good news for Minnesota is that he's not the only former No. 1 overall pick on the roster. Royce Lewis, the 2017 top selection whose profile as a high-upside high school shortstop with exceptional makeup was similar to Correa's five years prior, is finally showcasing his star potential after back-to-back seasons cut short by serious ACL injuries. 

An oblique strain in July appeared to have derailed a third straight season for Lewis, but he's looked fantastic since returning to the majors in mid-August, launching five homers in his past eight games including back-to-back games with a grand slam — the latter being something no Twins hitter had ever done before. His 147 wRC+ ranks best among the 17 Twins hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. 

It's clear that the strength of this year's Twins team is their starting pitching, but I've been looking up and down this lineup all year to see which position player would step up in a meaningful way to make this offense look even mildly intimidating entering the postseason. With myriad injuries sapping the expected dynamic duo of Correa and Byron Buxton of their star power, it's been on some younger bats like Matt Wallner, Eduoard Julien and now Lewis to fill in the gaps of offensive production along the way. 

They've each had their moments, but Lewis — now installed as the everyday third baseman — seems like the best bet to fully take off as an impact hitter for Minnesota in the final month and beyond. After all Lewis has been through to get here, it'd be a wonderful development for player and team alike. I'm rooting hard for it to come to fruition.  

AL West: Altuve is back … and better than ever?!

OK, better than ever is a stretch for a former AL MVP with three batting titles to his name, but my goodness, has José Altuve looked spectacular in his age-33 season. He's checked off some fun side quests along the way, reaching 2,000 hits and hitting for the cycle for the first time in his career. Yet, the milestones and single-game achievements have almost distracted from the fact that he's shown no rust after missing the first six weeks of the season and is powering the Astros' offense in his familiar leadoff spot amid a wildly competitive AL West race. Altuve's 187 wRC+ since June 24 ranks fourth in baseball behind only Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Matt Olson — and he has shown no signs of slowing down with September approaching. 

We're plenty used to seeing Altuve hitting well above .300, but his career-high 12.9% walk rate is an impressive new feature of his well-rounded offensive profile. What matters most right now is that Altuve keeps delivering at the plate as his team pushes for its sixth division title in seven years. That said, with Altuve slated to hit free agency after next season, I'm awfully curious if Houston will explore extending the franchise icon even further considering how good he still looks entering his mid-30s. There's no massive rush, but for what Altuve has meant to this organization, I wouldn't be surprised if we hear such discussions of a contract that would make him an Astro for life this upcoming winter. 

NL East: Nationals might not be bad for long

After dropping a series at home to the 30-47 Nationals at the end of June, shortstop Xander Bogaerts expressed notable frustration that the Padres — then 37-41 — couldn't find any momentum against a club like Washington, which had a fraction of the expectations of his own team entering 2023. "C'mon, man. We're playing the Nationals," Bogaerts told reporters. "I don't think they have playoff aspirations. I mean, they obviously have a young team and they fight. They do fight. But I wouldn't say anyone picked the Nationals to be in the playoffs. So, you have to beat the teams that you have to beat."

Here's the thing: Bogaerts was absolutely correct, even if it came off a bit disrespectful. This wasn't just a bad Nationals team; it was the same bad Nats team that recently traded generational superstar Juan Soto to the Padres last year in a drastic effort to rejuvenate a barren farm system. There was no reason to expect these two teams to be in the same zip code in the 2023 standings.

Yet, there they were. And much to Bogaerts' dismay, these two teams thought to be on significantly different competitive timelines have only gotten closer in the NL pecking order over the past two months. Since his comments, San Diego has gone 25-31 while Washington has gone 32-25, leaving them with — hilariously — identical 62-72 records.

For all that's been made of the disastrous Padres campaign, I think it's also worth shedding some light on what's been quite a successful season in D.C. A 75-win pace isn't exactly parade-worthy, but the Nationals were projected to be one of the few worst teams in baseball alongside the likes of Colorado and Oakland. They are not that. It is still a deeply flawed team with a severe power shortage on offense and thin pitching staff, but there are a lot of good things happening here. 

Shortstop CJ Abrams and lefty MacKenzie Gore, both key pieces in the Soto swap, have flashed excellence for considerable stretches of the summer, while James Wood has climbed to Double-A as one of baseball's top outfield prospects. Look at the return in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster deal made with the Dodgers in 2021, and you'll find 25-year-old right-hander Josiah Gray was Washington's lone All-Star, while 25-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz has been one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball in the second half. Perhaps most importantly, the Nats just drafted Dylan Crews, one of the best hitters in college baseball history — and he's already in Double-A alongside Wood. His ETA? Soon.

There's still a lot of work to be done to build this roster up to be a legitimate threat in the loaded NL East, but I'm optimistic about where things are, one year out from making the monumental organizational decision to part with Soto. 

NL Central: Brewers lack roster balance

It's been a fascinating three weeks for the Brew Crew. A road sweep of the White Sox was immediately followed by a sweep suffered at the hands of the mighty Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in which Milwaukee was outscored 14-3. Then, beginning with what many assumed would be a challenging series in Arlington, Milwaukee pounded the struggling Rangers with an uncharacteristic offensive explosion of 21 runs across three contests. It launched what would eventually settle into a nine-game winning streak, a stretch bested by only four other teams this regular season. Then, two narrow defeats this week to the Cubs at the not-so-friendly confines of Wrigley Field — in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff starts, no less — have jolted Milwaukee back to reality. 

The reality is this: Woodruff has looked excellent since returning from injury in early August and Freddy Peralta has looked a lot more like his 2021 breakout self, especially over his past six starts in which he's punched out a ridiculous 56 batters in just 36 innings with a 1.75 ERA. This is still a three-headed rotation monster that no opponent is looking forward to facing in October, and assuming health, that isn't going to change any time soon. 

But games like Tuesday and Wednesday are also a stark reminder of the challenges Milwaukee might ultimately face when trying to take down the likes of the Braves or Dodgers when the stakes or the highest. Even with a nice bounce-back year from Christian Yelich, the incredible acquisition of catcher William Contreras, and the occasional hot streak from Willy Adames, this offense just isn't very good. There are a ton of rookies getting a ton of at-bats with varying results, and veterans Carlos Santana and Mark Canha are far better suited for supporting roles than relied on to be middle-of-the-order run producers.

I still like this team and don't want to underestimate the infrastructure around which manager Craig Counsell has won a whole lotta ballgames, but this group still just feels a bit light to me. Philadelphia visits American Family Field this weekend in what should be a useful litmus test for both teams to see how they stack up in the bigger picture of the National League.  

NL West: A giant win for San Francisco

What a fun couple of nights at Oracle Park with 22-year-old top prospect Kyle Harrison striking out 11 in his home debut and 35-year-old Alex Cobb coming within one out of a no-hitter. Cobb making his first All-Star game this year in his 12th season has certainly been one of the best stories of this up-and-down Giants season, but Harrison's debut has their fans buzzing about a young pitcher in a way they haven't in a very long time. 

Joining fellow 2020 selections Patrick Bailey and Casey Schmitt in San Francisco, Harrison's arrival made the Giants one of just three teams alongside St. Louis and Atlanta to already get three players to the big leagues from the abbreviated 2020 draft. For reference, there are still 13 teams that have yet to see a single MLB debut from that class, and 10 others that have yielded just one.

Beyond the drafting and developmental win for the Giants, Harrison also stands out on an individual level relative to his positional peers. He's the 28th player from the 160-player draft class to reach the majors but also the first high-school pitcher. Selected in the third round with the 85th overall pick, Harrison was the 10th of 19 prep arms to be selected in 2020. He received a roughly $2.5 million signing bonus, which was fourth-highest and used to lure him away from his commitment to UCLA. The money was a strong indicator of the Giants' belief in him, and it hasn't taken him long to prove them right. 

Not a single pitcher has struck out more batters in the minors over the past three seasons than Harrison, who's amassed an absurd 452 punchouts in just 279.1 innings across all four levels of full-season ball. His occasionally wavering command has resulted in some shorter outings, but his gnarly fastball/slurve combination delivered from an unusually low slot has consistently overwhelmed opposing batters to a staggering degree. 

Harrison's 11 strikeouts in his home debut on Monday were an encouraging early sign that his stuff should continue to play at the highest level. Whether Harrison can help propel San Francisco back into a postseason position remains to be seen, but his start days may soon become appointment viewing for Giants fans and neutral pitching enthusiasts alike. 

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_. 

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Jordan Shusterman