National Basketball Association

NBA free agency winners and losers, from Kyle Lowry to P.J. Tucker

Updated Aug. 3, 2021 1:29 a.m. ET

By Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writer

Free agency has come and mostly gone. More than 50 contracts were agreed upon Monday, and although no A-listers changed teams, there were some winners and losers.

Let’s get to them.

Winner: Everyone involved with and connected to the Miami Heat

We have to start in South Beach. No team that matters to the larger NBA picture was more active Monday. While I see the concerns — the Heat just handed out mega deals to a pair of 30-year-olds and a $90 million deal to a one-dimensional former Division III forward — my initial reaction to what the Heat have done this offseason is I absolutely love it!

First, let’s go over the moves. Some of these details might change over the next few days, but the basics are:

A three-year (!), $90 million contract for Kyle Lowry, who was signed via a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors that sent Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa to Toronto.
A five-year, $90 million (!) contract to re-sign Duncan Robinson.
A five-year (!), $184 million (!) max-contract extension for Jimmy Butler, which will keep him in Miami through the 2025-26 season, when he’ll make $50.3 (!) million.
A two-year, $15 million deal for P.J. Tucker.

We’ll get to the long-term questions in a moment, but first let’s focus on next season. The Heat are going to trot out a Butler-Lowry-Bam Adebayo trifecta, which is going to suffocate and brutalize opposing offenses. Miami was already a top-10 defense each of the past two seasons. Add Lowry — a defensive ace who’s a genius on and off the ball — plus Tucker to the mix, and you have the ingredients for something special.

Imagine trying to score against a crunch-time lineup featuring those four. They can switch across positions, wreck havoc in passing lanes and physically abuse teams.

Offense is what held the Heat back last season (they finished 19th in non-garbage time points per possession, per Cleaning the Glass), and Lowry will no doubt provide a big boost there as well. He’s a strong shooter and a great passer, and his cutting and general smarts will allow the offense to thrive and should elevate the entire attack. Granted, spacing could be tight, but that’s why the Heat just handed Robinson all that money.

Also, this is now a roster full of stud passers boasting high basketball IQs. Factor in any sort of bounce back from Tyler Herro, and suddenly you have a team that looks like it should have a genuine chance to go toe-to-toe with the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets.

Could the Heat be in trouble a few years from now? Sure. But who cares. The point of this whole exercise is to win a championship, and the Heat now have a legitimate shot at nabbing another. But also, if we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it’s that Miami has no problem Jedi-mind-tricking rival teams into taking on its garbage contracts. The Heat never have cap room, yet they always seem to be in play for free agents. It’s like a magic trick.

In the meantime, the Heat are going to be one of the better and more fun teams to watch over the next couple of seasons. Kudos to them.

Loser: Fans of the New York Knicks

It’s not that any of the deals handed out by team president Leon Rose (Evan Fournier for three years and about $19 million per season, with a team option for the fourth season, according to SNY’s Ian Begley; Derrick Rose for three years and $43 million; Nerlens Noel for three years and $32 million; Alec Burks for three years and $30 million) is bad in a vacuum. Rose, Bucks and Noel are all good players, and there’s nothing wrong with any of those numbers. The Fournier contract seems steep, but that’s the going rate for a starting-caliber wing who can shoot 40% from deep and create off the bounce.

But the Knicks entered the offseason with the ability to create $50 million in cap room, and did all sorts of maneuvering (trading down in the draft, picking up Mitchell Robinson’s team option instead of extending him, keeping his salary at a paltry $1.8 million) that we typically see from teams with big offseasons plans. It’s hard to believe the Knicks’ goal entering the offseason was to end up with the same team as last season, only with Fournier in place of Reggie Bullock and most of last year’s bargains locked into multiyear deals.

Is this team better than last season’s? Sure. But in terms of their quest to become true title contenders, it feels like the Knicks have taken a step back.

Where’s the upside with these deals? Think of it like this: Leon Rose has now been at the helm for two offseasons, and he had cap room to play with last year as well. And how many players have he and his regime brought into New York who we can say will be part of the Knicks’ long-term plans? You can be generous and list Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley — but after that?

Maybe the Knicks have something else up their sleeves, but right now, the plan seems to be banking on Julius Randle sustaining his play from last season and some superstar hitting the market and forcing his way to New York. Both seem unlikely. Yes, Damian Lillard appears to be itching for a trade. But can the Knicks outbid the Sixers or any of the other teams that will be in on him if ever does push the Blazers?

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Loser: The New Orleans Pelicans

I get the logic of not wanting to pay Lonzo Ball $85 million over four years. That’s a BIG number for an inconsistent player who’s pretty limited in the half court, and it’s harder to swallow when you factor in Brandon Ingram’s max deal and Zion Williamson's impending one.

But if you’re the Pelicans, and you need to win now because you have a transcendent, young star who will be playing for his third coach in three seasons, you better have a backup plan for when that player leaves, and you better hope it’s better than Devonte’ Graham to a four-year, $47 million deal.

Graham is a good 3-point shooter, but he’s tiny and struggles inside the arc. He’s better off as a sixth man. Ball, on the other hand, while far from perfect, is a good fit next to the ball-dominant "Point Zion" we watched thrive in the second half of last season.

Oh, and this is what Zion told reporters in May when asked about Ball’s future.

"I think me, Brandon and Zo, the three of us, we have a great relationship," he said. "I really would want Zo to come back, and he knows that. But like I said, the reality of the situation is, Zo’s a grown man, so he’s going to make the decision that’s best for him. The only thing I can say is I hope he stays."

No player has ever turned down a rookie max extension, which the Pelicans can offer Zion next summer. Will Zion be the first?

Winner: Chris Paul

It was only two years ago that every NBA observer was labeling Paul’s contract one of the worst in the league. Now he’s getting a four-year, $120 million contract that will carry him to the age of 40.

Loser: Sixers and Raptors

Remember at last season’s trade deadline when the Sixers and Raptors couldn’t come to terms on a Kyle Lowry deal? The details in terms of which team was asking for what and who was being stubborn are a bit murky, but nothing got done. Now, here we are, six months later, and both teams look silly.

The Raptors in all likelihood could have had at least one of the Sixers’ young players (Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton) and maybe a draft pick or two. Instead, they got Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragic.

The Sixers, meanwhile, could have certainly used Lowry down the stretch last season, and now they find themselves with no clear path to improving their team.

Yes, the Heat were always Lowry’s preference, according to league sources. He’s close with Jimmy Butler and after last season's trade deadline told associates that he was frustrated that Miami didn’t pull the trigger on a deal. But that also means the Sixers’ only shot at signing Lowry was to trade for him first and then hope he fell in love with the franchise.

No one team is to blame here. But both missed an opportunity.

Loser: Bucks fans expecting their team’s owners to not be cheap

P.J. Tucker played a major role in the Milwaukee Bucks' ending their 50-year championship drought. He was a free agent and wanted to return to Milwaukee. There was no reason for the Bucks to not bring him back, other than saving on some luxury-tax bills.

Tucker instead signed with the Miami Heat. He then posted the following to his Instagram account.

The Bucks, remember, are owned by a pair of billionaires. Remember that anytime you see someone label any of these free-agent contracts outlandish.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.