National Football League

2023 NFL Week 6 odds, best bets: Bills to pour it on, Patriots to cover

Updated Oct. 16, 2023 11:24 a.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It's Week 6 of the NFL season, so we have good data to analyze regarding the good and bad teams.

And, as the weeks add up, questions run rampant among bettors.

Are the Buffalo Bills for real? Can the New England Patriots turn their fortunes around? Will the Bengals go on another run like they did last season?

I can't give you definitive answers on all, but I can certainly help point you in the direction I am going in when it comes to bets.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my best bets for NFL Week 6.

All times ET

Giants @ Bills (8:20 p.m., NBC)

This isn’t a difficult handicap. The Giants are a train wreck, while the Bills are one of the best teams in the league. Granted, the Bills are down several defensive starters and are coming off a lackadaisical performance in London. But, there is still uncertainty around the Giants offensive line and QB Daniel Jones (neck injury) is out.

As much as you want to bet the Bills rebounding from that loss with a blowout of an inferior team, they do have a massive game with the rival Patriots next week on deck. Could the Bills take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter when they're up a few touchdowns, potentially costing you a backdoor cover?

So the best way to attack is to just hit the Bills team total. They scored 38 and 37 against bad teams (which is what the Giants are), and New York can’t stop anyone.

PICK: Bills team total Over 30.5

Seahawks @ Bengals (1 p.m., CBS)

The Seahawks come in healthy off a bye, and they're playing in the 10 a.m. PT slot, which has gone extremely well for them recently. Since 2018, They’ve won 15 of 18 in games starting at that time and several aspects of this matchup look good on paper for them.

Joe Burrow (317 yards, 78% completion percentage) went nuts last week, connecting with Ja'Marr Chase (15 catches, 192 yards, three TDs) against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Arizona ranks 31st in pressure rate and still sacked Burrow three times. Seattle is 14th in pressure rate and expects safety Jamal Adams to return from a concussion, blitzing Burrow early and often.

Of course, I’m nervous backing Geno Smith on the road against an elite QB like Burrow, but one has to wonder if the Bengals are feeling themselves after a win over lowly Arizona and think, "One week to the bye, and then we face the 49ers and Bills."

PICK: Seattle (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Ravens vs. Titans in London (9:30 a.m., NFL)

It’s gotten very clear that in the London games, you want to leave early and let your body get acclimated to the time change, as opposed to leaving late in the week. Ravens coach John Harbaugh talked about the reason they left on Monday this week: The last time they went to London, in 2017, they left late in the week and were blasted by Jacksonville 44-7.

Harbaugh told the media he’s poured resources for months into solving the London travel. They’ll be ready, especially off an inexplicable loss to the Steelers.

Why Patriots vs. Raiders, Bills vs. Giants are best bets of NFL Week 6

The Titans, who left late on Thursday night, will once again be without WR Treylon Burks. And two vital cogs on the defensive line, Teair Tart and Jeffrey Simmons, both missed practice this week. The Titans are going into a bye, so do they hold them out in hopes of being 100 percent healthy in two weeks?

I’m surprised money came in on the Titans, pushing the line down from 5.5 to 4. Mike Vrabel is a terrific coach, but Lamar Jackson has two playoff performances against the Titans with 120-plus rushing yards.

I'm backing the Ravens.

PICK: Ravens (-4) to win by more than 4 points

Patriots @ Raiders (4:05 p.m., CBS)

Am I backing a team that has lost the last two weeks by a combined score of 72-3? Yes, yes I am.

Injuries have hurt New England all season, as its already started eight different offensive linemen. This week, guard Michael Onwenu is expected to be healthy enough to return to last year’s form, when he was one of the best players in the league at his position. His replacement this season, rookie Atonio Mafi, has allowed four sacks and grades out as the 74th of 75 guards in the NFL.

Protection for Mac Jones will likely help his performance — can he get much worse? — against the worst defense he’s seen so far this season.

The Patriots could catch a break with the ankle injury to Davante Adams that clearly slowed him Monday, as he only saw four targets.

And yes, a tiny point of the handicap is this data point: The Raiders won and covered in prime-time last week. The public will back them because they want no part of a dreadful Patriots team that might have a legendary coach on the hot seat very soon.

This line feels like an overreaction.

PICK: Patriots (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.