College football picks: No. 25 Vanderbilt, No. 24 Navy get chances to punch above their weights

Updated Oct. 23, 2024 2:03 p.m. ET

Associated Press

Opportunity comes knocking Saturday for two of the surprise teams in college football.

No. 25 Vanderbilt, in an Associated Press regular-season poll for the first time since 2008 and coming off 10 consecutive losing seasons, hosts No. 5 Texas three weeks after it shocked the nation with its upset of then-No. 1 Alabama.

No. 24 Navy, unbeaten halfway through its season following four straight losing campaigns, has been ranked for two weeks and plays its annual game against No. 12 Notre Dame, this year at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Vanderbilt (5-2) went into the Alabama game 0-60 all-time against top-five opponents. The chance to play for a second top-five win in a month and the excitement around the program present a challenge when it comes to tuning out the noise.

“When the winds outside the program were shifting and negative, we were disciplined not to pay attention,” fourth-year coach Clark Lea said. “Now that they're celebrating and giving us attention — I'm not saying we don't appreciate that, because we do — but we're certainly not going to give power to it.”

The Midshipmen lost 42-3 to Notre Dame in Ireland last year in the opener of coach Brian Newberry's first season. Irish coach Marcus Freeman said Navy's transformation has been impressive.

“I love it," he said. "We're looking forward to a great challenge. To play a 6-0 team, as the head coach you'd much rather do that than play a team that's 0-6, because it doesn't take much to motivate your guys.”

The picks, with all games Saturday unless noted, and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (plus 6 1/2)

Wisconsin has outscored the opposition 117-16 during its three-game win streak. Mirage? The opposition was Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. The Nittany Lions are coming off an open date since their overtime win at Southern California.

Pick: Penn State 21-17.

Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State (minus 25 1/2)

Will Howard has had a hot hand lately, the 2014 national championship team will hold a reunion at the Horseshoe and the Buckeyes have beaten Nebraska seven straight times by an average score of 48-18. The Cornhuskers just got hammered 56-7 at Indiana.

Pick: Ohio State 45-14.

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt (plus 18 1/2)

It’s bounce-back week for the Longhorns. Quinn Ewers was out of sorts against Georgia, and coach Steve Sarkisian gave him a vote of confidence this week. The Commodores’ upset of Alabama and the buzz around them will keep Texas focused.

Pick: Texas 31-14.

Florida State at No. 6 Miami (minus 21)

The unbeaten Hurricanes have played three straight close games, and FSU’s defense is good enough to make this a four-quarter game. The offense isn’t, though. The Seminoles have scored no more than 16 points in six straight games, and the Canes' Cam Ward is playing like he’s on a mission to win the Heisman Trophy.

Pick: Miami 39-14.

No. 8 LSU (plus 2 1/2) at No. 14 Texas A&M

The home team has won the last seven meetings. The Aggies’ defensive front will challenge LSU, just as South Carolina and Mississippi’s did. Close wins in those two games galvanized the Tigers. A&M’s highlight so far is its lopsided win over a then-top-10 Missouri.

Pick: LSU 32-27.

No. 11 BYU at UCF (minus 1 1/2)

UCF has lost four straight, but the change to QB Jacurri Brown has sparked an offense that gave Iowa State all it could handle last week. The key is whether Brown can limit his mistakes against a BYU defense that already has 12 interceptions.

Pick: UCF 31-28.

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy (plus 12 1/2)

Notre Dame’s biggest worry is limiting Navy’s big plays. The Midshipmen have added wrinkles to their triple-option offense and broken five runs of at least 50 yards. Newberry goes for his first win over a ranked opponent and Navy’s first 7-0 start since 1978.

Pick: Navy 28-24.

Washington at No. 13 Indiana (minus 6 1/2)

Tayven Jackson is in line to start for Indiana in place of Kurtis Rourke, who injured his right thumb against Nebraska. The Huskies face the travel hurdle again. They lost at Iowa last week and head east again, this time three time zones away for what to them will be a 9 a.m. kickoff.

Pick: Indiana 41-24.

Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State (minus 10)

The Wildcats come in off two straight road wins and will be playing their first home game in a month. They’ve found a nice rhythm while winning three straight since their clunker at BYU. Kansas has lost 15 straight in the Sunflower Showdown.

Pick: Kansas State 38-16.

Oklahoma at No. 18 Mississippi (minus 20 1/2)

The Rebels have had two weeks to get over their crushing overtime loss at LSU and are at home to face an opponent in disarray. Sooners coach Brent Venables, who called his offense an “abomination,” fired coordinator Seth Littrell earlier this week and turned over play-calling to Joe Jon Finley.

Pick: Mississippi 27-3.

No. 17 Boise State (minus 3 1/2) at UNLV

Big Friday night game between teams with hopes of earning the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. National rushing leader Ashton Jeanty has gone over 200 yards in three of the Broncos’ six games and is well rested after an open date. UNLV is best in the Mountain West at stopping the run.

Pick: Boise State 33-28.

Syracuse at No. 19 Pittsburgh (minus 5 1/2)

Desmond Reid is Pitt’s first running back to have three 100-yard rushing games and two 100-yard receiving games in the same season. Syracuse’s Kyle McCord puts up prodigious numbers and is clutch on third down. Pitt has won five straight Thursday night regular-season games.

Pick: Pittsburgh 37-27.

No. 20 Illinois (plus 21 1/2) at No. 1 Oregon

Illinois held Michigan to its lowest point total since 2014 in a 21-7 win. Oregon’s offense is a different animal. The Ducks just beat Purdue 35-0 on the road — the same Purdue team that scored 40 second-half points at Illinois before losing 50-49 in overtime.

Pick: Oregon 42-24.

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama (minus 14)

Jalen Milroe and the two-loss Crimson Tide have been trying to regain their mojo since beating Georgia, and there's no room for error now if they are to contend for a playoff bid. Missouri QB Brady Cook made an inspiring return from the hospital in the second half to lead the Tigers past Auburn last week.

Pick: Alabama 28-10.

No. 22 SMU (minus 11 1/2) at Duke

Coaching connections abound. Third-year SMU coach Rhett Lashlee was first-year Duke coach Manny Diaz’s offensive coordinator at Miami in 2020-21. Duke OC Jonathan Brewer worked with Lashlee at SMU in 2022-23, and Duke DC Jonathan Patke was with Lashlee at Miami.

Pick: SMU 36-16.