Expanded College Football Playoff field draws more bets and on more teams

Published Dec. 12, 2024 2:51 p.m. ET

Associated Press

LAS VEGAS (AP) — If Texas coach Steve Sarkisian holds aloft the College Football Playoff trophy next month, that will be bad news for BetMGM Sportsbook.

It would be similarly disappointing if any of the coaches at Boise State, Indiana or Arizona State end up celebrating a title with confetti falling all around them inside Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Wait, what?

Texas has attracted a lot of money all season to go all the way, but those other schools provide the hope of a big payoff. The fifth-seeded Longhorns are the co-favorite at BetMGM with No. 1 and unbeaten Oregon at 7-2 odds; the other three are least 40-1, while Georgia is right behind Oregon and Texas as the next favorite.

“These teams get hot and people just want to have a flyer on them,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “They don't want to be standing there and not have a ticket on some of these long-shot teams.”

Expanding the playoff field from four to 12 teams this year meant more betting in general on college football and more varieties of wagering on the postseason. There were meaningful games played in the final month by not only Arizona State, Boise State and Indiana, but also SMU, Army and UNLV — a number of teams not always in the national title conversation.

“It's one of the highest handles we've ever had on our national-championship market,” Magee said. “We're in more states, for one, but the activity and the betting patterns we're seeing, it definitely feels a lot more than it has in years past.”

Riding with the Mustangs

Magee said BetMGM has received action on both sides of the first-round game between 11th-seeded SMU and sixth-seeded Penn State, but the Mustangs have drawn notable action at DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook.

Money on SMU dropped Penn State from a 9-point favorite at DraftKings to 8 1/2.

“Any time they've played a real good team, they've had trouble," Johnny Avello, DraftKings race and sports operations director, said of the Nittany Lions. "SMU shows that they're pretty good on both sides of the football and pretty resilient as a team. Always in the game. Always finds ways to fight back.”

Joey Feazel, who oversees football trading for Caesars, said much of the early betting in general was on underdogs.

“Usually, you see the dog money for these teams come late, especially on the sharps' (professional bettors) side,” Feazel said.

Little love for the Broncos

Boise State, which as the third seed has a first-round bye, will be the underdog in its quarterfinal matchup with Penn State or SMU.

The Broncos got into the field as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, but Avello said that doesn't mean they are one of the nation's top 12 teams (they are ranked No. 8 by AP and No. 9 by CFP). Avello said BYU, Colorado and Miami — none of which made the playoff — all would be favored over them.

“There are a lot of teams that aren't in the playoffs that would be favored," Avello said. “That's just not the way these playoffs work.”

Feazel said Boise State not being able to play at home on its blue carpet will be a notable disadvantage. Boise State's quarterfinal game will be at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.

“It will be all neutral," Feazel said. "It's a big step up in class for Boise.”

How's the weather up there?

Instead of all the games being played in climate-controlled domes or warm-weather locales — as has been in the case in past postseasons — three of the four first-round matchups will take place in the Northeast and Midwest.

While that might not make a difference when Notre Dame hosts in-state foe Indiana, Ohio State will be at home against Tennessee and SMU visits Penn State.

BetMGM favors all four home teams by more than a touchdown.

“You have to take the weather into account for some of these games,” Magee said. “It's going to be really cool to see a team like Tennessee that will have to go up to Columbus, where it can get really cold. SMU has to go from Dallas to Happy Valley. That's definitely going to be one of the coldest games a lot of those kids have played in their lives.”

Hypothetical matchup

SMU was the last team in the field, getting the benefit of the doubt over Alabama.

The Mustangs had one fewer defeat than the three-loss Crimson Tide, who did not appear in the SEC title game. SMU lost on a 56-yard field goal to Clemson in the ACC championship.

The sportsbook operators said the Tide would be favored by 5-10 points if they met SMU on a neutral field.

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