In 12-team College Football Playoff, strength of schedule will go a long way in deciding bracket

Published Oct. 30, 2024 3:24 p.m. ET

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The executive director of the new 12-team College Football Playoff confirmed what many already knew — that while wins and the age-old “eye test” will play roles in determining who makes the bracket, strength of schedule could be a deciding factor in some of the selection committee's deliberations.

Rich Clark held a call with reporters Wednesday to go over the details of how the 12-team bracket will be decided. The first list of the committee's weekly top 25 rankings comes out Tuesday, with the brackets to be locked in using the list revealed Dec. 8.

“Record matters, but we're not trying to pick the most deserving teams, we're trying to pick the best teams,” Clark said, a statement likely to be parsed for weeks. “This committee's got to look at their entire body of work. They're going to consider record, of course. ... But they're going to look at strength of schedule, they're going to look at head-to-head competition, how teams perform against each other," and a handful of other factors.

Last year, when the bracket included only four teams, there was an uproar over the committee's decision to take Alabama with one loss over undefeated Florida State. Even with an expanded bracket that gives automatic spots to the five best conference champions, it's hard to imagine the committee's decisions won't be criticized in some way.

One new complication this year is that the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 all have done away with divisions — a byproduct of conference realignment that's designed to ensure teams will play all their conference opponents within a handful of years.

Having 16- and 18-team conferences also mean it's no sure thing that top contenders will play each other this year. For example, surprising No. 13 Indiana (8-0) doesn't have regular-season games against the other two Big Ten teams that are currently undefeated — No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State. And No. 9 BYU (8-0) isn't scheduled to meet two of its closest pursuers, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 23 Colorado, in the Big 12.

Clark portrayed strength of schedule — details of which will be calculated by an analytics firm called SportSource Analytics — as one of the best ways for the 13-person selection committee to figure out which teams are better than others, especially when it comes to deciding between closely matched teams.

“It helps us to look at teams in a more fair manner," Clark said. “If a team rolls through a schedule that's a very easy schedule, it's kind of hard to judge them against a team that lost two games but has a really tough schedule.”

A refresher on the 12-team bracket

—The selection committee will rank the top 25 teams every week starting Tuesday, with its final list, released the day after the Dec. 7 conference title games, determining what the bracket will look like.

—The four top-ranked conference winners all will earn first-round byes, regardless of where they're ranked. The next-best conference winner will receive a spot in the bracket even if it is ranked outside the top 12.

—Opening round of playoffs involving teams 5-12 are on campuses on Dec. 20-21. The title game is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

What the bracket would look like based on this week's AP Top 25

The selection committee will not follow the AP or other polls when it comes out with its rankings. But just for fun, here's what the bracket would look like if it were based on the AP Top 25 that came out Sunday, and if the higher ranked teams all won their conference titles:

—5 vs. 12: Boise State at Penn State (Boise State of the Mountain West would qualify as the fifth-best conference champ despite being ranked 15)

—6 vs. 11: Clemson at Ohio State (Buckeyes routed Tigers 49-28 in semifinals in 2021)

—7 vs. 10: Texas A&M at Texas (Teams meet Nov. 30 in regular season, but bracketing rules would not prevent a rematch)

—8 vs. 9: Notre Dame at Tennessee (Irish are overcoming that bad loss to Northern Illinois in the AP poll; will the committee be as forgiving?)

Byes:

1 — Oregon (Would play quarterfinal game in Rose Bowl)

2 — Georgia (Would play quarterfinal in Sugar Bowl)

3 — Miami (Peach Bowl)

4 — BYU (Fiesta Bowl)

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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