Pick-Six: Sam Pittman, Billy Napier, Dave Aranda are coaches in need of change of trajectory in '24

Updated Aug. 12, 2024 6:10 a.m. ET

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Self-awareness is one of the endearing traits that made Arkansas fans embrace Sam Pittman during his first two seasons as coach of the Razorbacks.

Pittman's honesty is admirable, even if his approval rating in Fayetteville has plummeted after going 4-8 last season.

“I’m popular now, just in the wrong way,” Pittman said at SEC Media Days. “I’d say I’m hot. I’m at the top of those lists.”

Lists like these. Here are six coaches who enter 2024 with tenuous job status (Reminder: There are already two FBS jobs sort of open with Utah State and Fresno State heading into the season with interim coaches).

Sam Pittman, Arkansas, 23-25 in four seasons

Pittman's return for 2023 was iffy, but he made it. He then hired former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino to be offensive coordinator, which definitely feels as if he hired his own replacement. Hard to see a major turnaround coming for the Razorbacks in a bulked-up SEC.

A contractual twist to keep an eye on: Pittman's buyout is higher by a few million dollars if, at the time of his firing, Arkansas' record since 2021 is below .500. That record currently stands at 20-18.

That hints of an in-season firing if the Hogs start slow to ensure Pittman doesn't complicate things with a late-season surge.

Billy Napier, Florida, 11-14 in two seasons

Napier came to Gainesville after leading Louisiana-Lafayette to three straight double-digit victory seasons, and with a plan to steadily build Florida to again compete with Georgia and Alabama. You have to recruit at a high level to win at that level, but to recruit at that level you also have to do some winning and the Gators have not done nearly enough of that.

Florida would owe Napier about $25 million to dump him less than halfway through a seven-year contract. Ironically, patience might be part of the solution at Florida with the Gators on their fourth coach since Urban Meyer left in 2010.

But facing the toughest schedule in the country is going to make it difficult for Napier to prove the Gators are "on schedule to some degree,” as he said at SEC Media Days.

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt, 9-27 in three seasons

The former Notre Dame defensive coordinator returned to his alma mater with great vibes and hopes he could turn Vandy into a program that thrives on culture, identifying upside in recruits and methodical player development. The school even backed up the good feelings, pledging a $300 million investment in facilities.

Then the transfer portal opened wide, NIL became part of the recruiting equation, and one of the toughest jobs in college football got even more difficult. Lea is 2-22 in SEC games.

Safe to say Vanderbilt is not eager to make another coaching change. Six victories would easily earn Lea a fifth season. Maybe even five. But getting there is going to be tough.

Dave Aranda, Baylor, 23-25 in four seasons

Aranda's trajectory has been similar to Pittman's. Big second season, regression since. Getting to Year 4 was no sure thing, and doing so came with major staff changes (Jake Spavital in as offensive coordinator). Aranda, a former defensive coordinator, will also take control of that side of the ball this season.

The Big 12 will be more forgiving than the SEC and Aranda's deal runs through the 2029 season, but Baylor views itself as a program capable of filling the void left at the top of the conference by the departures of Texas and Oklahoma. There won't be much patience for another losing season.

Will Hall, Southern Mississippi, 13-24 in three season.

The Mississippi native and former Tulane offensive coordinator seems like a natural fit in Hattiesburg to flip a program with a proud history, but little recent success.

Hall's side of the ball has been a big part of the problem. When an offensive coach can't figure out the offense it's often a bad sign. Maybe the addition of Florida State transfer quarterback Tate Rodemaker is the solution?

The volatile nature of Group of Five football right now means it wouldn't be surprising if the Golden Eagles play Hall off the hot seat in a Sun Belt West that is a bit unsettled with new coaches at Troy and South Alabama.

Deion Sanders, Colorado, 4-8 in one season

OK, let's be clear: On-field results alone are highly unlikely to get Coach Prime fired in 2024. CU football is relevant for the first time in decades. Sanders is not on the hot seat.

The fair question to ask is: Is Sanders in this for the long haul?

The Buffs move into the Big 12 with a tricky schedule, but with a roster that looks better suited to reach bowl eligibility than it did in Year 1 under Sanders. Maybe even better than that — which would then open up the possibility Sanders could try to parlay a winning season into another job.

His son and quarterback, Shedeur, has a chance to develop into a first-round pick in next year's draft. Sanders' portal-heavy approach to roster building doesn't suggest a coach who is interested in long-term sustainability.

There has been nothing routine about Sanders' coaching career, so be prepared for anything.

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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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