Setting 12-team playoff bracket not the same as ranking top 12 teams and could be 'a shocker'

Updated Sep. 18, 2024 3:24 p.m. ET

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GRAPEVINE, Texas (AP) — Let's forget all that has happened to Florida State since the Seminoles were 13-0 after winning the ACC title game with a third-string freshman quarterback last season. FSU fans certainly wish they could.

Back before that unprecedented snub last December, when the Seminoles became the only Power Five team in the 10 seasons of the four-team format to be left out of the College Football Playoff.

How would those Seminoles have fared if there had been a 12-team playoff bracket then?

The Associated Press took part in one of a series of mock exercises conducted by CFP officials to provide insight into how the 13-member selection committee's process will work for the expanded playoff that begins this season.

In the exercises, there was certainly a spot in the 12-team field for an undefeated Florida State, and even a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. Still, the Seminoles didn't finish in the top four of any of the final rankings.

Rank and seed not the same

How is that possible? Remember that the rankings and the seedings that will be used to fill out the 12-team bracket aren't the same. A second-, third- or fourth-ranked team by the CFP could end up no higher than the No. 5 seed and playing a first-round game at home. There also could be teams ranked in the CFP's top 12 that get left out of the playoff.

Both of those scenarios played out during the mock session attended by the AP.

“Ranking and seeding are going to be different, and people are going to be surprised if they assume that their team is ranked one way and that they’re going to be seeded in that same way,” said Rich Clark, the CFP's new executive director. “So it could be really a big difference, a shocker."

The rankings

The CFP selection committee will still compile its weekly top 25, evaluating and ranking teams over seven rounds of balloting each week. The first of the six rankings this season will be released Nov. 5, and the final one Dec. 8, the day the playoff bracket is revealed.

Any group of three of more teams can be reconsidered after each round, but there can be no modifications to the final ranking to avoid rematches or games between schools from the same league once the playoff begins. The committee is charged to pick the “best” teams without predicting or speculating about head-to-head matchups that haven't and may not happen.

The seedings

In the previous format, the playoff teams were the top four in the final CFP rankings no matter their conference. Last year, that was Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama, with ACC champion Florida State on the outside looking in at No. 5.

The new format: The CFP's five highest-ranked conference champions and its next seven highest-ranked teams overall make the playoff. If you look at the current AP Top 25 using this format, the top four seeds this week would be top-ranked Texas, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 8 Miami and No. 12 Utah. Georgia, the AP's No. 2 team behind the Longhorns, would be seeded fifth. Five of the seven at-large teams would be from the Southeastern Conference, and the Big Ten would fill the other spots.

Crafting a bracket

During the mock exercises, participants first put together a list of the best 25 teams from the 2023 season, utilizing the same data committee members used last December. Current conference affiliations were then applied during the seeding after that ranking was set, with Washington picked No. 1 ahead of last year's national champion Michigan, followed by Texas, Alabama and Florida State.

If not for that twist, last year's Power Five conference champs would have been seeded 1-5, just like they were ranked.

With Washington instead considered the Big Ten champ and No. 1 seed, Michigan dropped to the fifth seed. Texas (SEC), Florida State (ACC) and 14th-ranked Arizona (Big 12) were between them. Only conference champions can be one of the top four seeds that get a first-round bye.

Undefeated Conference USA champion Liberty, not in the mock final top 25, was then voted in as the top remaining conference champion and the No. 12 seed.

Once the parameters for conference champions were applied to the 12-team bracket, inserting Arizona and Liberty from outside the top 12-ranked teams, No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 12 LSU dropped out of playoff consideration.

SMU won the American Athletic title last season and was ranked 22nd. But the Mustangs are now in the ACC and weren't recognized as the fifth highest-ranked conference champ. If they had been, they would have been in ahead of Liberty, with only LSU knocked out and Ole Miss then making the playoff.

The result

Using all those twists and turns, the bracket ended up looking like this — which Seminoles fans would have liked to see:

No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ohio State. Winner vs. No. 1 Washington in the Rose Bowl.

No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Michigan. Winner vs. No. 4 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl.

No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Georgia. Winner vs. No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Alabama. Winner vs. No. 3 Florida State in the Peach Bowl.

Conference contractual agreements still apply for bowl placements in the quarterfinal round, sending Washington to the Rose (Big Ten) and Texas to the Sugar (SEC). Proximity for the top two seeds, whether they make it to the semifinals or not, determines those placements. In this case, the winner of the Washington half of the bracket goes to the Cotton Bowl, instead of the top-seeded Huskies potentially having to go across the country. The team out of the Texas half would go to the Orange Bowl, sending the Longhorns out of their home state again with a victory.

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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