Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated Mar. 21, 2025 5:27 a.m. ET

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The No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) will aim to beat the No. 9 seed Baylor Bears (19-14) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at Lenovo Center. This contest tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET.

NCAA BK

NCAA TOURNMENT - FIRST ROUND

Mississippi State Bulldogs MSST

4:15 PM

CBS

8

Mississippi State ^21-12

MSST ^21-12

9

Baylor ^19-14

BAY ^19-14

Baylor Bears BAY

MSST -1.5 TOTAL 145.5

The Bulldogs take on the Bears in a game expected to be a close matchup. The Bulldogs are favored by only 1.5 points against the Bears. The game's point total is set at 144.5.

Continue reading to get everything you need to know before wagering on the Mississippi State-Baylor game.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, March 21, 2025 at 12:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
• How to watch on TV: CBS
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction

• Pick ATS: Baylor (+1.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (144.5)
  
• Prediction: Baylor 76, Mississippi State 74

Learn more about the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. the Baylor Bears game on FOX Sports!

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

• Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Bulldogs 73, Bears 72.
• The Bulldogs have a 55.6% chance to win this matchup per the moneyline's implied probability.
• The Bears have a 48.8% implied probability to win.

Key Spread Facts

• Mississippi State has compiled a 14-17-1 record against the spread this season.
• Baylor has put together an 11-19-1 ATS record so far this year.
• Mississippi State has an ATS record of 11-14 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season.
• Baylor has covered the spread once this season (1-9 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.

Key Total Facts

• Bulldogs games have finished with more than 144.5 points 23 times so far this season.
• Bears games have had over 144.5 points 15 times this year.
• The over/under for this game is 144.5 points, 11.8 fewer than the scoring average of the two teams combined.

Key Moneyline Facts

• Mississippi State is 18-7 in games when it was listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 72%).
• Baylor has been listed as the underdog 10 times this season and have failed to win any of those games.
• In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -125 or shorter, Mississippi State has a record of 18-6 (75% win percentage).
• Baylor has not won as an underdog of +105 or more on the moneyline this season in 10 games with those odds or longer.

Fri 4:15 PM

CBS

NCAA BK

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

9

Baylor Bears

BAY

+1.5

+105

O 145.5

8

Mississippi State Bulldogs

MSST

-1.5

-125

U 145.5

Mississippi State vs. Baylor: 2024-25 Stats Comparison

Mississippi State 2024-25 Key Players

Baylor 2024-25 Key Players

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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CBK - Baylor Bears vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 03/21/2025

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