North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament First Four

Updated Mar. 18, 2025 8:27 p.m. ET

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) square off in a First Four matchup on Tuesday. A spot in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament is on the table for the winner of the game, tipping off at 9:10 p.m. ET.

NCAA BK

NCAA TOURNMENT - FIRST FOUR

San Diego State Aztecs SDSU

68

FINAL

95

11

San Diego State ^21-10

SDSU ^21-10

68

11

North Carolina ^23-13

UNC ^23-13

95

North Carolina Tar Heels UNC

FINAL

UNC -4.5 OVER 142

The Tar Heels are a 4.5-point favorite against the Aztecs when the Tar Heels and the Aztecs meet. The game's over/under is set at 141.5.

Keep reading to get the download before placing bets on the North Carolina-San Diego State clash.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 9:10 p.m. ET
• Where: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
• How to watch on TV: truTV
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction

• Pick ATS: San Diego State (+4.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (141.5)
  
• Prediction: North Carolina 73, San Diego State 72

Learn more about the North Carolina Tar Heels vs. the San Diego State Aztecs game on FOX Sports!

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

• Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Tar Heels 73, Aztecs 68.
• The Tar Heels have a 68.6% chance to collect the win in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability.
• The Aztecs sit with a 35.7% implied probability to come out on top.

Key Spread Facts

• North Carolina has put together a 14-19-1 ATS record so far this year.
• San Diego State is 12-17-0 ATS this year.
• When playing as at least 4.5-point favorites this season, North Carolina has an ATS record of 10-11.
• San Diego State has an ATS record of 3-2 when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs this year.

Key Total Facts

• The Tar Heels games have had more than 141.5 points scored on 27 occasions this season.
• Aztecs games have finished with over 141.5 points scored 10 times this year.
• The Tar Heels and Aztecs combine to average 151.7 points per contest, which is 10.2 more than the total for this game.

Key Moneyline Facts

• North Carolina has won 20 of 23 games when the moneyline favorite this season (87%).
• San Diego State has won four of the 10 games it has played as underdogs this season.
• In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -218 or shorter, North Carolina has a record of 17-2 (89.5% win percentage).
• This season, San Diego State has won one of its three games when it is the underdog by at least +180 on the moneyline.

FINAL

UNC 95 · SDSU 68

NCAA BK

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

11

North Carolina Tar Heels

UNC

-4.5

-217

O 142

11

San Diego State Aztecs

SDSU

+4.5

+180

U 142

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: 2024-25 Stats Comparison

North Carolina 2024-25 Key Players

San Diego State 2024-25 Key Players

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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CBK - North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs - 03/19/2025

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