College Football

Navy at Air Force: Prediction, Odds, Expert Pick

Published Oct. 4, 2024 3:34 p.m. ET

The Navy Midshipmen (4-0) are 9.5-point favorites heading into their matchup on Saturday, October 5, 2024 against the Air Force Falcons (1-3). The over/under is 37 for this matchup.

The Midshipmen beat the UAB Blazers, 41-18, in their most recent game. Last time out, the Falcons fell to the Wyoming Cowboys, with 31-19 being the final score.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

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Navy vs. Air Force Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado
TV: CBS
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

More College Football Predictions

Navy vs Air Force Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2024, 2:46 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Navy	-9.5 (-114)	-375	+288	37	-109	-111

Navy vs. Air Force Prediction

Pick ATS: Navy (-9.5)
Pick OU: Over (37)
Prediction: Navy 37, Air Force 16

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Navy Midshipmen vs. the Air Force Falcons game on FOX Sports!

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Navy is excellent this season and on pace for 10 wins.

The Midshipmen rank 10th in the sport in net yards per play, while being fourth in points per drive. They’ve somewhat moved away from their traditional offense of running, running and running some more. Instead, they're throwing the ball a little more this season.

They already have 44 pass attempts this year, and Horvath has completed 30 of them. Navy is a good squad and it's playing a bad Air Force team. And calling Air Force bad might be being too nice.

The Falcons are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the spread against FBS teams by 13 points. Air Force is 129th in points per drive on offense and not much better on defense.

I like Navy to win and cover this game.

PICK: Navy (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Navy vs. Air Force Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Midshipmen 23, Falcons 14.
The Midshipmen have a 78.9% chance to collect the win in this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Falcons hold a 25.8% implied probability.
Navy has put together a 3-1-0 ATS record so far this year.
Air Force has compiled a 0-4-0 record against the spread this year.

Navy vs. Air Force: Head-to-Head

Over their last three meetings, Air Force has collected three wins against Navy.
The Midshipmen and the Falcons have been an even matchup over their last three contests, holding a split 1-1-1 record against the spread. In those three head-to-head matchups, the two squads have never gone over the total.
Over their last three head-to-head matchups, Air Force has scored 53 points, while Navy has posted 19.

Navy vs. Air Force: 2024 Stats Comparison

	Navy	Air Force
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	46 (19)	12.5 (132)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	23.5 (51)	21.3 (39)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	2 (5)	5 (43)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	8 (32)	7 (42)

Navy 2024 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Blake Horvath	QB	637 YDS (68.2%) / 7 TD / 1 INT 450 RUSH YDS / 8 RUSH TD / 112.5 RUSH YPG
Eli Heidenreich	RB	72 YDS / 0 TD / 18 YPG / 5.1 YPC 15 REC / 348 REC YDS / 5 REC TD / 87 REC YPG
Brandon Chatman	RB	125 YDS / 1 TD / 31.3 YPG / 5.7 YPC 6 REC / 132 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 33 REC YPG
Alex Tecza	RB	212 YDS / 3 TD / 53 YPG / 6.1 YPC
Colin Ramos	LB	42 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK
Jaxson Campbell	DB	25 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 1 INT
Luke Pirris	DL	18 TKL / 2 TFL / 1.5 SACK
Justin Reed	DL	8 TKL / 3 TFL / 3 SACK

Air Force 2024 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Cade Harris	WR	8 REC / 119 YDS / 0 TD / 29.8 YPG
Aiden Calvert	RB	91 YDS / 2 TD / 22.8 YPG / 5.1 YPC
John Busha	QB	240 YDS (36.5%) / 0 TD / 2 INT 128 RUSH YDS / 0 RUSH TD / 32 RUSH YPG
Kade Frew	RB	56 YDS / 1 TD / 14 YPG / 6.2 YPC
Peyton Zdroik	DL	11 TKL / 3 TFL / 3 SACK
Jamari Bellamy	DB	19 TKL / 3 TFL
Grant Uyl	LB	17 TKL / 1 TFL
Kyle Chen	DB	12 TKL / 1 TFL