Astros vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 11

Jeremy Pena and the Houston Astros face TJ Friedl and the Cincinnati Reds at Daikin Park on Sunday. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET. The favored Astros have -146 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Reds, who are listed at +123. Houston (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The game's total has been listed at 8.5 runs.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Astros-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Reds vs. Astros Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the Cincinnati Reds and the Houston Astros.

Astros vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Daikin Park in Houston, Texas
• How to watch on TV: SCHN and FDSOH

Astros vs. Reds Prediction

• Score Prediction: Astros 5, Reds 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Astros 55%, Reds 45%

Astros vs. Reds Betting Insights

• This season, the Astros have been favored 27 times and won 14, or 51.9%, of those games.
• Houston has a record of 4-4 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -146 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 59.3% chance of a victory for the Astros.
• The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 22 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (45.5%) in those games.
• Cincinnati has a mark of 3-4 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +123 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 44.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Astros Recent Betting Performance

• The Astros were the moneyline favorite for eight of their last 10 games, and finished 4-4 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Astros and their opponents combined to go over the run total seven times.
• The Astros' record against the spread is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Astros Recent Stats

Astros Player Insights

• Pena has gone yard five times in the 2025 campaign while driving in 19 runs, both totals that lead the Astros.
• Among all MLB hitters, Pena is 31st in batting average, 61st in on-base percentage, and 61st in slugging.
• Pena carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .318 with two doubles, a home run and seven RBIs.
• Isaac Paredes has five doubles, a triple, four home runs and 22 walks while batting .263.
• Paredes ranks 111th in homers and 99th in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Paredes carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .353 with two doubles, five walks and three RBIs.
• Jose Altuve has five doubles, four home runs and 11 walks while hitting .259.
• Jake Meyers has a club-best .296 batting average.
• Meyers is riding a 10-game hitting streak into this one. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .400 with a double, a triple, two home runs, five walks and eight RBIs.

Astros Team Props

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• In seven games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by oddsmakers, the Reds had a record of 3-4.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Reds and their opponents are 4-6-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Reds have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• Friedl is batting .281 with six doubles, a triple, three home runs and 19 walks.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Friedl's home run total ranks 148th and his RBI tally is 99th.
• Elly De La Cruz been a consistent power bat this season, as he paces his team with six home runs and 29 RBI.
• De La Cruz ranks 54th among all hitters in the big leagues in home runs, and 11th in RBI.
• Gavin Lux has put up a team-best batting average of .289.
• Jose Trevino has nine doubles, three home runs and five walks while hitting .310.

Reds Team Props

Reds vs. Astros Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the Cincinnati Reds and the Houston Astros.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Houston Astros

Cincinnati Reds