Astros vs. Twins ALDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 7

Updated Oct. 7, 2023 4:00 p.m. ET

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The Houston Astros will host the Minnesota Twins to begin the ALDS on Saturday at 4:45 PM ET, live on FS1 from Minute Maid Park. The Twins are +127 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Astros (-149). Houston (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total is 8.5 runs for this contest.

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the Houston Astros looking to Justin Verlander (13-8), and Bailey Ober getting the nod for the Minnesota Twins.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Astros-Twins game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Astros vs. Twins Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 4:45 PM ET
• Where: Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas
• How to Watch on TV: FS1

Astros vs. Twins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Astros 5, Twins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Astros 53%, Twins 47%

Astros vs. Twins Betting Insights

• This season, the Astros have been favored 118 times and won 61, or 51.7%, of those games.
• Houston has a record of 36-27, a 57.1% win rate, when favored by -149 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 59.8% chance of a victory for the Astros.
• The Twins have been victorious in 20, or 40%, of the 50 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• This season, Minnesota has come away with a win seven times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of at least +127 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 44.1% chance of pulling out a win.

Astros Recent Betting Performance

• The Astros were the moneyline favorite for six of their last 10 games, and finished 3-3 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Astros and their opponents combined to go over the run total three times.
• The Astros' record against the spread is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Astros Recent Stats

Astros Player Insights

• Kyle Tucker paces the Astros with 112 runs batted in while putting up a team-high batting average of .284.
• Tucker's home runs rank him 30th in the majors, and he ranks third in RBI.
• Tucker carries a six-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .286 with four doubles, two triples, a home run, six walks and four RBI.
• Alex Bregman has 28 doubles, four triples, 25 home runs and 92 walks while hitting .262.
• Bregman is 46th in homers and 20th in RBI on the year.
• Bregman enters this game looking for his sixth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is batting .350 with a double, a triple, a home run, two walks and two RBI.
• Yordan Alvarez has launched a team-best 31 home runs.
• Alvarez has at least one base hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is batting .211 with a home run, three walks and an RBI.
• Jose Altuve has 21 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .311.

Astros Team Props

Learn more about this Astros vs. Twins matchup on Fox Sports.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• Sportsbooks have not installed the Twins as underdogs in any of their last 10 games.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Twins and their opponents are 5-5-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• Over their last 10 games, the Twins are 6-4-0 against the spread.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Max Kepler paces the Twins with 24 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 66.
• In all of MLB, Kepler is 54th in home runs and 106th in RBI.
• Kepler has collected a hit in six straight games. During his last 10 games he is hitting .314 with a double, two home runs, five walks and six RBI.
• Carlos Correa has a club-leading .230 batting average.
• Correa is 112th in homers and 109th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Willi Castro is batting .257 with 18 doubles, five triples, nine home runs and 34 walks.
• Edouard Julien is batting .260 with 16 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 64 walks.

Twins Team Props

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