Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 12

Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 12

Updated Oct. 12, 2023 7:00 p.m. ET
Data Skrive

The Atlanta Braves will visit the Philadelphia Phillies in the fourth game of the NLDS on Thursday at 8:07 PM ET, live on TBS from Citizens Bank Park. The Braves hope to force a Game 5 as they enter the matchup trailing in the series 2-1. Bookmakers list the Braves as -151 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Phillies +128 moneyline odds to win. Atlanta (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. An 8.5-run over/under has been listed for the game.

The probable pitchers are Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA) for the Braves against Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) for the Phillies.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Braves-Phillies game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Braves vs. Phillies Game Information & Odds

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  • When: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:07 PM ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • How to Watch on TV: TBS
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds
Braves -151 +128 8.5 -108 -111 -1.5 +109 -129

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

  • Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
  • Win Probabilities: Braves 51%, Phillies 49%

Braves vs. Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Braves have entered the game as favorites 151 times this season and won 97, or 64.2%, of those games.
  • This season Atlanta has won 73 of its 106 games, or 68.9%, when favored by at least -151 on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.2% chance of a victory for the Braves.
  • The Phillies have come away with 24 wins in the 52 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Philadelphia has won four of 14 games when listed as at least +128 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 43.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Braves Recent Betting Performance

  • The Braves were the moneyline favorite for nine of their last 10 games, and finished 6-3 in those matchups.
  • Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Braves and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total seven times.
  • The Braves are 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Braves Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 12
ERA 5.20
K/9 8.2

Braves Player Insights

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has racked up a team-high batting average of .337.
  • In all of MLB, Acuna is fifth in home runs and eighth in RBI.
  • Matt Olson's 54 home runs and 139 runs batted in both pace his team.
  • Including all MLB hitters, Olson ranks first in home runs and first in RBI.
  • Olson has 11 games in a row with at least one hit. In his last 10 games he is batting .353 with a double, a home run, three walks and seven RBI.
  • Ozzie Albies is batting .280 with 30 doubles, five triples, 33 home runs and 46 walks.
  • Albies has at least one base hit in six games in a row. During his last 10 games he is hitting .390 with two doubles, a triple, a home run, six walks and six RBI.
  • Austin Riley is batting .281 with 32 doubles, three triples, 37 home runs and 59 walks.
  • Riley brings a five-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .348 with two doubles, a home run and three RBI.

Braves Team Props

Hits O/U Total Bases O/U HR O/U RBI O/U
Ozzie Albies 1.5 (+180) 1.5 (+100) 0.5 (+450) 0.5 (+160)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 1.5 (+185) 1.5 (+105) 0.5 (+400) 0.5 (+180)
Austin Riley 0.5 (-213) 1.5 (+125) 0.5 (+360) 0.5 (+150)
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 (-222) 1.5 (+125) 0.5 (+340) 0.5 (+165)
Kevin Pillar 0.5 (-105) 0.5 (-105) 0.5 (+600) 0.5 (+245)

Learn more about this Braves vs. Phillies matchup on Fox Sports.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

  • The Phillies have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Phillies and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
  • The Phillies have a record of 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 17
ERA 3.31
K/9 9.8

Phillies Player Insights

  • Kyle Schwarber has a team-best 47 home runs.
  • Schwarber is second in homers and 11th in RBI among all batters in the majors.
  • Trea Turner has 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks while hitting .266.
  • Among all MLB batters, Turner ranks 38th in homers and 66th in RBI.
  • Alec Bohm is hitting .274 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 42 walks.
  • Bryce Harper leads the Phillies with a team-high batting average of .293.

Phillies Team Props

Hits O/U Total Bases O/U HR O/U RBI O/U
Trea Turner 0.5 (-200) 1.5 (+145) 0.5 (+450) 0.5 (+220)
Nicholas Castellanos 0.5 (-115) 0.5 (-105) 0.5 (+550) 0.5 (+240)
Brandon Marsh 0.5 (+110) 0.5 (+110) 0.5 (+750) 0.5 (+360)
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 (-141) 0.5 (-130) 0.5 (+500) 0.5 (+225)
Bryce Harper 0.5 (-149) 0.5 (-149) 0.5 (+450) 0.5 (+220)
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