Guardians vs. Tigers ALDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 5

Updated Oct. 3, 2024 7:01 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The ALDS begins Saturday at 1:08 p.m. ET when the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers live from Progressive Field, and airing on TBS. Oddsmakers list the Guardians as -151 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Tigers +128 moneyline odds. Cleveland is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total is 7 runs for the game (with -116 odds to go over and -104 odds to go under).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Guardians-Tigers game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Guardians vs. Tigers Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 1:08 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to Watch on TV: TBS

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Guardians	-151	+128	7	-116	-104	-1.5	+146	-176

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 4, Tigers 3
Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
Win Probabilities: Guardians 54%, Tigers 46%

Guardians vs. Tigers Betting Insights

The Guardians have won 65, or 64.4%, of the 101 games they've played as favorites this season.
Cleveland has entered 34 games this season favored by -151 or more and is 23-11 in those contests.
Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 60.2% chance to win.
The Tigers have been victorious in 48, or 50%, of the 96 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
Detroit has a mark of 10-21 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +128 or worse on the moneyline.
The Tigers have an implied victory probability of 43.9% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

The Guardians have a 3-4 record over the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Guardians and their opponents combined to hit the over two times.
The Guardians have put together a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	3.6
HR	14
ERA	2.20
K/9	8.9

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez has gone yard 39 times in the 2024 campaign while driving in 118 runs, both totals that lead the Guardians.
In all of the majors, Ramirez ranks fifth in home runs and third in RBI.
Josh Naylor is hitting .243 with 27 doubles, 31 home runs and 58 walks.
Of all MLB hitters, Naylor ranks 18th in home runs and eighth in RBI.
Steven Kwan has put up a team-high batting average of .292.
Andres Gimenez has 22 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 26 walks while batting .252.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Tanner Bibee	-	-	-	-

Learn more about this Guardians vs. Tigers matchup on Fox Sports.

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

The Tigers have played as underdogs four times over their past 10 games and won each of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Tigers and their opponents are 2-7-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
The Tigers are 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	8-2
Runs Per Game	4.0
HR	7
ERA	2.77
K/9	7.2

Tigers Player Insights

Riley Greene leads the Tigers in home runs (24), runs batted in (74) and has posted a team-best batting average of .262.
Among all hitters in the big leagues, Greene's home run total ranks 42nd and his RBI tally ranks 61st.
Matt Vierling has 28 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 41 walks while batting .257.
Among all major league batters, Vierling ranks 117th in home runs and 126th in RBI.
Colt Keith is batting .260 with 15 doubles, four triples, 13 home runs and 36 walks.
Kerry Carpenter is batting .284 with 16 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs and 22 walks.

Tigers Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Colt Keith	0.5 (-195)	0.5 (-195)	-	0.5 (+225)
Trey Sweeney	0.5 (-120)	0.5 (-120)	-	0.5 (+270)
Kerry Carpenter	0.5 (-170)	0.5 (-170)	-	0.5 (+250)
Riley Greene	0.5 (-180)	0.5 (-180)	-	0.5 (+210)
Spencer Torkelson	0.5 (-125)	0.5 (-125)	-	0.5 (+250)