Juan Soto could decide on his next team before or during baseball's winter meetings

Published Nov. 26, 2024 6:35 p.m. ET

Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — Juan Soto appears on a timetable to decide on where to sign either before or during baseball's winter meetings in Dallas, which run from Dec. 8-12.

Soto met with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, a person familiar with the negotiations said last week, speaking to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because details were not announced.

Soto's agent, Scott Boras, asked teams to submit initial offers by Thanksgiving, a second person familiar with the talks said, also on condition of anonymity because it was not announced.

Soto is the top player available among this year's free agents. A four-time All-Star, Soto finished third in AL MVP voting after hitting .288 with 41 homers, 109 RBIs and 129 walks. He has a .285 career average with 201 homers, 592 RBIs and 769 walks over seven major league seasons.

Soto turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer from Washington in 2022, prompting the Nationals to trade him to San Diego, which then dealt him to the Yankees last December. Soto then combined with Aaron Judge to lead New York to the World Series, where the Yankees lost to the Dodgers.

In his pitch to teams, Boras highlighted that Soto joined Mickey Mantle as the only players with seven RBIs in a World Series at age 21 or younger when he was with Washington, and at 20 became the youngest player with five postseason homers. Soto's .906 postseason OPS through age 25 topped Mantle (.900) and Derek Jeter (.852).

How much money will Soto get?

Soto is likely to seek a record contract, topping Shohei Ohtani's $700 million, 10-year agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. That might not mean Soto gets more than $700 million, though. Because Ohtani's deal included $680 million in deferred money payable through 2043, it can be valued by different methods.

For instance, Ohtani's contract is valued at $46.1 million per season ($461 million total) under MLB's luxury tax system, which used a 4.43% discount rate. The players' association uses a 5% rate, which puts Ohtani's contract at $43.8 million per year. For MLB's regular payroll calculations, a 10% discount rates values Ohtani's deal at just $28.2 million.

Which means if Soto gets even $462 million without deferred payments, there's an argument that his deal is the most valuable in MLB history.

By average annual value, pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for second in baseball history at $43.33 million as part of contracts they signed with the New York Mets, deals that expired at the end of the 2024 season.

In terms of total value, Ohtani surpassed outfielder Mike Trout’s $426.5 million, 12-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels through 2030.

MLB’s longest contract is outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres through 2034.

How could MLB's luxury tax factor into team's bids on Soto?

The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies all are likely to enter 2025 having paid luxury tax for three straight years, putting them at the highest rate: a 50% surcharge on payroll between $241 million and $261 million, 62% from $261 million to $281 million, 95% from $281 million to $301 million and 110% for each dollar above $301 million.

Toronto may have dropped below the initial tax threshold this year, pending final figures next month. If the Blue Jays did fall under, their rates next year would reset to 20%, 32%, 62.5% and 80% for the four thresholds.

The winter meetings would be a fitting place for Boras to announce a record deal

If Soto reaches or announces an agreement at the winter meetings in Dallas' Hilton Anatole, it would be a familiar location for a big Boras deal.

Alex Rodriguez's record $252 million, 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers was announced in December 2000 at what then was called the Wyndham Anatole Hotel. A-Rod's deal more than doubled MLB's previous high, a $121 million, eight-year contract between pitcher Mike Hampton and Colorado that was announced just two days earlier.

“In two days, we’ve doubled a new highest salary,″ said Sandy Alderson, then an executive vice president in the commissioner’s office. ”I don’t like the exponentiality of that."

Rodriguez was 25 at the time of the agreement with Texas, a free agent before entering his likely prime, like Soto.

Besides Soto, which free agent hitters are available?

Third baseman Alex Bregman, first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, and outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are among the significant bats available to pursue and likely would interest some of the teams who fail to sign Soto.

Bregman and Alonso, like Soto, are represented by Boras.

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