Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 27

Updated Sep. 27, 2023 4:00 p.m. ET

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The New York Mets and Brandon Nimmo will square off against the Miami Marlins and Jorge Soler on Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET, in the first of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Marlins are +114 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Mets (-133). New York (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The matchup's over/under is listed at 8 runs.

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the New York Mets looking to Joey Lucchesi (3-0), and Braxton Garrett (9-6) taking the ball for the Miami Marlins.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Marlins game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Mets vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 4:10 PM ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to Watch on TV: SNY

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 53%, Marlins 47%

Mets vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 87 times and won 49, or 56.3%, of those games.
• This season New York has won 28 of its 56 games, or 50%, when favored by at least -133 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 57.1%.
• The Marlins have come away with 39 wins in the 84 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Miami has a mark of 21-27 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +114 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 46.7% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets played as the moneyline favorite in three of their last 10 games, and finished 1-2 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total four times.
• The Mets have a 7-3-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Francisco Lindor is batting .250 with 33 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs and 62 walks.
• Lindor is 33rd in homers and 37th in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Pete Alonso has shown off his power as he leads his team with 45 home runs and 115 runs batted in.
• Alonso is second in home runs and second in RBI on the year.
• Nimmo leads the Mets with a team-best batting average of .271.
• Nimmo will look to build on his seven-game hitting in this game. In his last 10 games he is hitting .349 with four doubles, a triple, a home run, five walks and eight RBI.
• Jeff McNeil is batting .270 with 25 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 39 walks.

Mets Team Props

Learn more about this Mets vs. Marlins matchup on Fox Sports.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won five of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
• The Marlins have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Luis Arraez paces the Marlins with a .353 batting average.
• Arraez ranks 215th in home runs and 87th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Soler's 36 home runs are a team-high total.
• Soler ranks 10th overall in homers and 71st in RBI this season.
• Jake Burger has driven in a team-best 79 runs batted in.
• Bryan De La Cruz is hitting .258 with 32 doubles, 19 home runs and 39 walks.

Marlins Team Props

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