Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 27

Updated Jul. 27, 2023 7:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Kodai Senga starts for the New York Mets on Thursday against Jeimer Candelario and the Washington Nationals. First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET for this first game in a four-game series. The Mets are the favorite in this one, at -219, while the underdog Nationals have +181 odds to win. New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at -111 odds). The total for the matchup has been set at 9 runs.

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the New York Mets looking to Senga (7-5), and Josiah Gray (7-8) answering the bell for the Washington Nationals.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Nationals game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Mets vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, July 27, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to Watch on TV: MLB Network

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Mets	-219	+181	9	-115	-104	-1.5	-111	-109

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Nationals 4
Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 55%, Nationals 45%

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Insights

The Mets have entered the game as favorites 64 times this season and won 36, or 56.2%, of those games.
New York has a record of 3-2 when favored by -219 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The Mets have a 68.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
The Nationals have won in 37, or 39.8%, of the 93 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
Washington has a win-loss record of 10-13 when favored by +181 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 35.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets were favored on the moneyline in six of their last 10 games, and they finished 4-2 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 matchups, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the total three times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Mets' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.3
HR	12
ERA	4.09
K/9	8.5

Place your bets on Mets vs. Nationals now with FOX Bet!

Mets Player Insights

Francisco Lindor is hitting .230 with 22 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 44 walks.
Including all MLB hitters, Lindor is 123rd in batting average, 97th in on-base percentage, and 57th in slugging.
Pete Alonso's 28 home runs and 68 RBI both lead his team.
Alonso ranks third in home runs in MLB, and 12th in RBI.
Brandon Nimmo paces the Mets with a team-best batting average of .260.
Jeff McNeil has 16 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 29 walks while hitting .249.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Mark Canha	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+185)
Francisco Lindor	0.5 (-244)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+300)	0.5 (+140)
Brandon Nimmo	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+400)	0.5 (+165)
Pete Alonso	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+265)	0.5 (+110)
Tommy Pham	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+175)

Learn more about this Mets vs. Nationals matchup on Fox Sports.

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

The Nationals have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Nationals and their opponents have combined to hit the over seven times.
The Nationals have won four of their last 10 games against the spread.

Nationals Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.5
HR	12
ERA	6.31
K/9	8.2

Nationals Player Insights

Lane Thomas leads the Nationals with 16 home runs and 54 runs batted in, while recording a team-best batting average of .293.
Thomas' home run total puts him 49th in MLB, and he is 54th in RBI.
Candelario's 16 home runs are a team-high total.
Candelario ranks 49th in homers and 59th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
Luis Garcia has 12 doubles, four triples, five home runs and 21 walks while batting .263.
C.J. Abrams is batting .256 with 18 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 15 walks.

Nationals Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Dominic Smith	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+220)
Luis Garcia	0.5 (-244)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+220)
C.J. Abrams	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+225)
Joey Meneses	0.5 (-208)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+195)
Corey Dickerson	0.5 (-196)	0.5 (-200)	0.5 (+950)	0.5 (+235)

FOX Bet has the props and odds you need to get your betting on for Mets vs Nationals!

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!