Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 28

Updated Jul. 28, 2023 7:06 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will play on Friday at Citi Field, at 7:10 PM ET, with Pete Alonso and Lane Thomas among those expected to deliver at the plate. The favored Mets have -193 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Nationals, who are listed at +163. New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +110 odds). An 8.5-run total is listed in this contest.

The New York Mets will give the start to Max Scherzer (8-4, 4.20 ERA), who is looking for win No. 9 on the season, and the Nationals will turn to MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 4.37 ERA).

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Nationals game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Mets vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to Watch on TV: WPIX

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Mets	-193	+163	8.5	-117	-103	-1.5	+110	-130

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Nationals 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 55%, Nationals 45%

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Insights

The Mets have been favorites in 65 games this season and won 37 (56.9%) of those contests.
New York has a record of 7-7, a 50% win rate, when favored by -193 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 65.9% chance of a victory for the Mets.
The Nationals have been chosen as underdogs in 94 games this year and have walked away with the win 37 times (39.4%) in those games.
This season, Washington has come away with a win 18 times in 36 chances when named as an underdog of at least +163 or longer on the moneyline.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nationals have a 38% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets went 5-2 over the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the total three times.
The Mets' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.4
HR	11
ERA	3.78
K/9	8

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Mets Player Insights

Francisco Lindor is batting .228 with 22 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 44 walks.
Lindor's home runs rank him 26th in the majors, and he ranks 22nd in RBI.
Alonso's 28 home runs and 68 runs batted in are both team-highs.
Alonso ranks third in homers and 12th in RBI on the season.
Brandon Nimmo paces the Mets with a .258 batting average.
Jeff McNeil is batting .249 with 16 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 29 walks.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Brandon Nimmo	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+230)
Francisco Lindor	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+340)	0.5 (+160)
Tommy Pham	0.5 (-175)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+155)
Pete Alonso	0.5 (-213)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+340)	0.5 (+145)
Jeff McNeil	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+950)	0.5 (+165)

Learn more about this Mets vs. Nationals matchup on Fox Sports.

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

In seven games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Nationals have a record of 4-3.
When it comes to hitting the over, the Nationals and their opponents are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
The Nationals are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Nationals Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.2
HR	11
ERA	5.69
K/9	8.3

Nationals Player Insights

Thomas paces the Nationals with 16 home runs and 54 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .290.
Among all hitters in the majors, Thomas ranks 49th in homers and 54th in RBI.
Jeimer Candelario has hit a team-best 16 home runs.
Candelario is 49th overall in homers and 58th in RBI this year.
C.J. Abrams has 18 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 17 walks while batting .257.
Luis Garcia has 12 doubles, four triples, five home runs and 21 walks while batting .261.

Nationals Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Luis Garcia	1.5 (+180)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+195)
Keibert Ruiz	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+175)
Joey Meneses	0.5 (-213)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+195)
Ildemaro Vargas	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+155)	0.5 (+1000)	0.5 (+230)
C.J. Abrams	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+105)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+205)

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