Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 29

Updated Jul. 29, 2023 6:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Patrick Corbin gets the nod on the mound for the Washington Nationals in the third of a four-game series against the New York Mets and Pete Alonso on Saturday at 7:10 PM ET. Bookmakers list the Mets as -171 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Nationals +144 moneyline odds to win. New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at +111 odds). The game's over/under has been listed at 9.5 runs.

The Mets will start Carlos Carrasco (3-4) against the Nationals and Corbin (6-11).

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Nationals game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Mets vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to Watch on TV: SNY

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Mets	-171	+144	9.5	-111	-109	-1.5	+111	-133

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Nationals 4
Total Prediction: Over 9.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 55%, Nationals 45%

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Insights

This season, the Mets have been favored 66 times and won 38, or 57.6%, of those games.
New York is 12-10 this season when entering a game favored by -171 or more on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 63.1% chance to win.
The Nationals have been underdogs in 95 games this season and have come away with the win 37 times (38.9%) in those contests.
This season, Washington has been victorious 23 times in 53 chances when named as an underdog of at least +144 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 41% chance of walking away with the win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets went 6-1 across the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
Over their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Mets combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total three times.
The Mets are 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.7
HR	13
ERA	3.83
K/9	8.2

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Mets Player Insights

The Mets' best power option comes in the form of Alonso and his 30-dinger 73-RBI season, both team highs.
In all of the majors, Alonso is third in homers and eighth in RBI.
Alonso brings a hitting streak of two games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .389 with four home runs, a walk and 10 RBI.
Francisco Lindor is batting .228 with 22 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 44 walks.
Lindor is 26th in homers and 24th in RBI in the majors.
Brandon Nimmo paces the Mets with a team-high batting average of .258.
Jeff McNeil is hitting .255 with 16 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 29 walks.
McNeil brings a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .389 with a double, a walk and three RBI.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Mark Canha	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+140)
Francisco Lindor	1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-125)	0.5 (+270)	0.5 (+125)
Brandon Nimmo	1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-110)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+190)
Mark Vientos	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+390)	0.5 (+135)
Pete Alonso	1.5 (+170)	1.5 (-120)	0.5 (+275)	0.5 (-105)

Learn more about this Mets vs. Nationals matchup on Fox Sports.

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

In seven games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Nationals have a record of 3-4.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Nationals and their opponents have failed to hit the over five times.
The Nationals are 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Nationals Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.6
HR	10
ERA	5.76
K/9	8

Nationals Player Insights

Lane Thomas leads the lineup with a batting average of .287, while leading the Nationals in home runs, with 16 and runs batted in with 54.
Among all hitters in MLB, Thomas' home run total is 50th and his RBI tally is 55th.
Jeimer Candelario has collected a team-high 16 home runs.
Candelario is currently 50th in home runs and 60th in RBI in the big leagues.
Luis Garcia is hitting .266 with 13 doubles, four triples, six home runs and 21 walks.
C.J. Abrams is batting .254 with 18 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 17 walks.

Nationals Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Stone Garrett	0.5 (-196)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+175)
Luis Garcia	1.5 (+160)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+160)
Corey Dickerson	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+175)
Keibert Ruiz	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+170)
Lane Thomas	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+160)

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