Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 30

Updated Jul. 30, 2023 1:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Trevor Williams will be starting for the Washington Nationals when they take on Pete Alonso and the New York Mets on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET. The favored Mets have -240 moneyline odds against the underdog Nationals, who are listed at +196. New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at -118 odds). The total is 8.5 runs for this matchup (with -117 odds on the over and -102 odds to go under).

The Mets will start Justin Verlander (5-5) against the Nationals and Williams (5-5).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Nationals game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Mets vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

When: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 1:40 PM ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to Watch on TV: WPIX

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Mets	-240	+196	8.5	-117	-102	-1.5	-118	-102

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Nationals 4
Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 55%, Nationals 45%

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Insights

The Mets have won 38, or 56.7%, of the 67 games they've played as favorites this season.
New York has played as favorites of -240 or more once this season and won that game.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 70.6% chance of a victory for the Mets.
The Nationals have been victorious in 38, or 39.6%, of the 96 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
This season, Washington has come away with a win seven times in 18 chances when named as an underdog of at least +196 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 33.8% chance of walking away with the win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets went 5-2 over the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Mets' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	4.2
HR	13
ERA	3.83
K/9	8.2

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Mets Player Insights

Alonso is the Mets best power hitter, connecting on 30 long balls this season in addition to accumulating 73 RBI, both team highs.
Including all MLB hitters, Alonso is 133rd in batting average, 106th in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging.
Francisco Lindor is batting .231 with 22 doubles, two triples, 20 home runs and 45 walks.
Lindor is 23rd in home runs and 21st in RBI among all batters in baseball.
Lindor has two games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .316 with a double, a home run, three walks and two RBI.
Brandon Nimmo has racked up a team-high batting average of .256.
Jeff McNeil is batting .252 with 16 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 29 walks.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Jeff McNeil	1.5 (+165)	1.5 (-105)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+145)
Tommy Pham	0.5 (-208)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+175)
Daniel Vogelbach	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+135)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+160)
Pete Alonso	0.5 (-244)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+290)	0.5 (+115)
Brandon Nimmo	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (-105)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+185)

Learn more about this Mets vs. Nationals matchup on Fox Sports.

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

In seven games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Nationals have a record of 4-3.
When it comes to hitting the over, the Nationals and their opponents are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
The Nationals are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Nationals Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.4
HR	9
ERA	4.55
K/9	7.8

Nationals Player Insights

Lane Thomas leads the Nationals with 16 home runs and 55 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .286.
In all of the big leagues, Thomas is 51st in homers and 53rd in RBI.
Jeimer Candelario has hit a team-high 16 home runs.
Candelario is currently 51st in home runs and 59th in RBI in the big leagues.
Luis Garcia is batting .268 with 13 doubles, four triples, six home runs and 21 walks.
Joey Meneses has driven in the most runs for the Nationals with 55 runs batted in.

Nationals Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
C.J. Abrams	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+215)
Joey Meneses	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+205)
Lane Thomas	0.5 (-200)	1.5 (+145)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+200)
Luis Garcia	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+230)
Dominic Smith	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (-185)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+230)

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