Mets vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 16

Updated Sep. 16, 2023 7:06 p.m. ET

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Tylor Megill will start for the New York Mets on Saturday against Spencer Steer and the Cincinnati Reds. First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field. The Mets have been listed as -115 moneyline favorites for this matchup against the Reds (-105). Cincinnati is a 1.5-run favorite (at +155 odds). The total is 8.5 runs for the contest.

The Mets will give the ball to Megill (8-7) against the Reds and Andrew Abbott (8-5).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Reds game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Mets vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to Watch on TV: WPIX

Mets vs. Reds Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Reds 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 53%, Reds 47%

Mets vs. Reds Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have won 48 out of the 85 games, or 56.5%, in which they've been favored.
• New York is 42-35 this season when entering a game favored by -115 or more on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 53.5% chance to win.
• The Reds have been underdogs in 111 games this season and have come away with the win 55 times (49.5%) in those contests.
• This season, Cincinnati has come away with a win 48 times in 102 chances when named as an underdog of at least -105 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 51.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets went 3-4 over the seven games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Mets combined with their opponents to go over the total four times.
• The Mets are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• The Mets' best power option comes in the form of Pete Alonso and his 45-dinger 112-RBI season, both team highs.
• Among all MLB batters, Alonso is 129th in batting average, 67th in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging.
• Alonso carries a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .286 with two doubles, two home runs, two walks and nine RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 33 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs and 57 walks while batting .249.
• Lindor ranks 30th in homers in MLB, and 32nd in RBI.
• Brandon Nimmo has accumulated a team-high batting average of .267.
• Nimmo has at least one base hit in seven games in a row. In his last 10 outings he is batting .326 with four doubles, a triple, three home runs, two walks and five RBI.
• Jeff McNeil is batting .266 with 23 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 36 walks.
• McNeil brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .300 with a double, two home runs and three RBI.

Learn more about this Mets vs. Reds matchup on Fox Sports.

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• The Reds have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Reds and their opponents have failed to hit the over five times.
• The Reds have six wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• Steer leads the Reds in home runs (22) and runs batted in (81).
• In all of the big leagues, Steer is 60th in homers and 40th in RBI.
• TJ Friedl is batting .272 to lead the lineup.
• Friedl is 147th in homers and 125th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Jonathan India is hitting .246 with 20 doubles, 16 home runs and 41 walks.
• Hunter Renfroe is hitting .235 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 43 walks.

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