Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 11

Updated Aug. 11, 2023 9:05 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

A pair of hot hitters, Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll, will be on display when the San Diego Padres play the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday at 9:40 PM ET, at Chase Field. The Padres have been listed as -166 moneyline favorites for this matchup against the Diamondbacks (+140). San Diego is a 1.5-run favorite (at -106 odds). The total for the matchup has been set at 9 runs.

The Padres will start Blake Snell (8-8) against the Diamondbacks and Ryne Nelson (6-6).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Diamondbacks game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, August 11, 2023 at 9:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
How to Watch on TV: ARID

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Padres	-166	+140	9	-106	-113	-1.5	-106	-114

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Score Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Padres 5
Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
Win Probabilities: Padres 50%, Diamondbacks 50%

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Betting Insights

This season, the Padres have been favored 86 times and won 45, or 52.3%, of those games.
San Diego has a record of 21-18, a 53.8% win rate, when favored by -166 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The Padres have a 62.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
The Diamondbacks have been underdogs in 63 games this season and have come away with the win 28 times (44.4%) in those contests.
Arizona has a win-loss record of 7-9 when favored by +140 or worse by bookmakers this year.
The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 41.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

The Padres played as the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 4-4 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over five times.
The Padres have a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	5
HR	16
ERA	5.10
K/9	9.9

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Padres Player Insights

Soto has gone yard 24 times in the 2023 campaign while driving in 73 runs, both totals that lead the Padres.
Among all hitters in MLB, Soto is 16th in homers and 14th in RBI.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .256 with 25 doubles, a triple, 19 home runs and 31 walks.
Among all MLB hitters, Tatis ranks 37th in homers and 51st in RBI.
Ha-Seong Kim leads the Padres with a team-best batting average of .288.
Kim has at least one base hit in 15 games in a row. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .389 with a double, a home run, eight walks and two RBI.
Manny Machado has 14 doubles, 21 home runs and 36 walks while batting .251.

Padres Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Xander Bogaerts	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+600)	0.5 (+160)
Manny Machado	1.5 (+190)	1.5 (-115)	0.5 (+310)	0.5 (+110)
Gary Sánchez	0.5 (-185)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+370)	0.5 (+155)
Ji-Man Choi	0.5 (-189)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+170)
Jake Cronenworth	0.5 (-250)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+700)	0.5 (+170)

Learn more about this Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup on Fox Sports.

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

The Diamondbacks have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and have gone 1-6 in those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Diamondbacks and their opponents have failed to hit the over nine times.
The Diamondbacks have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	1-9
Runs Per Game	1.9
HR	6
ERA	4.40
K/9	8.9

Diamondbacks Player Insights

Carroll is batting .276 with 22 doubles, five triples, 21 home runs and 42 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .356.
Carroll's home run total puts him 26th in the big leagues, and he ranks 54th in RBI.
Ketel Marte's .282 batting average paces his team.
Marte ranks 43rd in home runs and 57th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
Christian Walker paces the Diamondbacks in home runs (23) and runs batted in (70).
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 25 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs and 23 walks while hitting .256.

Diamondbacks Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Ketel Marte	0.5 (-227)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+550)	0.5 (+200)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0.5 (-213)	1.5 (+155)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+170)
Corbin Carroll	0.5 (-208)	1.5 (+150)	0.5 (+650)	0.5 (+225)
Carson Kelly	0.5 (-110)	0.5 (-110)	0.5 (+800)	0.5 (+245)
Nick Ahmed	0.5 (-135)	0.5 (-135)	0.5 (+950)	0.5 (+230)

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